The Patriots Make the Trek to Cincinnati to Take On a Historically Bad Bengals Defense

Now off a mini-bye week after vanquishing the New York Jets, the Patriots now only have two games remaining before their Week 14 bye, the first of which brings them back on the road and more specifically, Cincinnati, Ohio, where they'll meet the Bengals. A team whose 2025 has been defined by some of the worst defensive football in the last half-century, as well as a slew of major injuries. Still no Joe Burrow, who's back practicing but not ready to return after a Week 2 turf toe injury. Additionally, in worse news is that they'll also be without Ja'Marr Chase, as he's been suspended for spitting on Steelers' corner Jalen Ramsey, and without last season's sack leader, Trey Hendrickson, who's battling a sports hernia and hasn't played since Cincy's historic fourth quarter collapse against the New York Jets in late October.

The Patriots, meanwhile, seem to be ready to welcome back at least one notable offensive piece this weekend; wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, who's practiced in full all week after going down with a hamstring injury several weeks back against the Atlanta Falcons. A welcome piece of good news, especially with Milton Williams going on IR this week with a high ankle sprain, which could potentially end his regular season depending on the severity.

Beyond the obvious (getting an opening drive stop), how do the Patriots walk into the proverbial jungle and make it out with a win two years in a row?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, November 23rd

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Kevin Harlan and Trent Green on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All White

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase (WR, Suspended), Trey Hendrickson (EDGE), Cam Taylor-Britt (CB), Joe Burrow (QB)

Patriots: Jahlani Tavai

Cincinnati Bengals

Defense

Where do you want to start with the Bengals' defense? The fact that they're allowing 418 yards per game, which would be the second most this decade, behind the 2020 Detroit Lions. The fact that they've been the single worst defense in terms of DVOA, an advanced stat that I'm admittedly not super familiar with the inner workings of, but know is a really good historical indicator, since at least 1978 through 10 games? Or even the fact that they've allowed at least 27 points in nine consecutive games? Lots of other things I could mention here as well, the lack of ability to create pressures/sacks, or the complete lack of ability to stuff the run, but this is legitimately a historic defense, for all the wrong reasons.

Primarily, this Bengals unit, coordinated by Al Golden, is going to be situated in Cover-3 more often than not, and really, the only guy to make note of when it comes to the Bengals coverage unit this year would be DJ Turner. He's a bit undersized in the weight department, listed at 180 lbs and 6'0", but he's done a really good job this year matching up with some bigger wideouts such as Brian Thomas, Cortland Sutton, and most notably DK Metcalf. Outside of him, this is a unit at the second and third levels that has been mostly brutal in coverage, and worst off, not good at tackling. There's a non zero chance they could have the four guys with the most missed tackles league wide after this weekend, two of which are starting safeties Jordan Battle and Geno Stone, and Cincy is the only team in the league over 100 missed tackles for the season, or 120 for that matter.

Trey Hendrickson being out certainly hurts a ton on the pass rush front, but even more than a lack of high-end options there, their run defense is ATROCIOUS. Names ranging from Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs all the way to Kyle Monangai and Jordan Mason have had monster days against this front. In watching most of Monangai's snaps when Chicago played the Bengals, I thought Cincy did an abysmal job holding up against duo concept runs, and on a few of those, they also got collapsed inside, and Monangai was able to get outside for some good chunk plays. Something to keep in mind, but I wouldn't be stunned if the Patriots have a season-best day on the ground if they want to heavily commit to the ground attack.

Offense

Honestly, a bit shocked at the Saturday news of Joe Burrow not being activated off of IR, but logically, that's absolutely the right call not to rush him back onto the field just over two months after a turf toe injury. It'll still be one January Joe Flacco in his place for these Bengals, who has been dealing with a minor shoulder issue as of late. On the whole, he's definitely not been the problem for these Bengals since arriving several weeks back, but a pair of bad picks in plus territory these last two weeks, which got the Bears comeback rolling, and ex-Patriot Kyle Dugger in the endzone for the Steelers, haven't exactly helped matters for him or this offense.

No Ja'Marr Chase this year will hurt, just as not having Tee Higgins in last year's season opener did, but the Bengals do have a solid group of guys to work with, even still. Higgins is always a handful to deal with, and especially the deeper you get into the season, but the Bengals also tout veteran tight ends Noah Fant and Mike Gesicki, in addition to depth wideout Andrei Iosivas, who'll undoubtedly get more opportunities with Chase out of the picture.

As you can imagine, the Bengals are at the bottom of the league in total rush attempts and in the bottom three in rush yards per game. Likely to be without Samaje Perine, who's listed as doubtful but has only had 32 carries this season to date, the Bengals' running attack will likely be exclusively through Chase Brown, who's had a pretty solid stretch of games the last month after a brutal start to the year. His line in front of him and Burrow isn't exactly anything to write home about, with most notably ex-Patriot Ted Karras manning the middle, but they don't exactly grade out great as a run or pass blocking unit from what I've seen.

New England Patriots

Defense

The most important thing to monitor this weekend for the Patriots is how some of these down the batting order guys on the interior defensive front step up in the absence of Milton Williams, and in the ensuing weeks to follow as well. Cory Durden would be the key name in this conversation, who the Patriots used as wide as 4i tech, all the way to 0-tech last Thursday vs. the Jets in what was a great game for him. I don't expect anything to major change when it comes to Khyiris Tonga's usage without Williams (or even depth piece Eric Gregory, for that matter) for the time being in either base or inverse (3-4) fronts, especially based on last Thursday. Expect to see a ton of rotating bodies up the middle still from Durden, Christian Barmore, and even rookie Joshua Farmer, who should be back this week as well.

Last year, we saw Christian Gonzalez wipe Ja'Marr Chase off the map with Tee Higgins out of the lineup for the Bengals. Now, we could get the inverse situation in 2025. The last time the Patriots played Higgins, they really didn't have much of an answer simply due to a lack of size on the boundary, which couldn't be less of an issue now. Not that the Patriots have been a man-heavy defense this year, but I'd be excited to see if/when they do get Higgins on Gonzalez 1-on-1 in those situations. Higgins has statistically been one of the league's best receivers this year vs. man coverage per NextGenStats, and that's almost exclusively been without Joe Burrow throwing to him.

Offense

Rhamondre Stevenson coming back to the lineup is undoubtedly welcome, but will he be the lead guy in this running back room after the last couple of weeks? I wouldn't doubt it, and if so, the reactions to that will certainly be rational. The bottom line is that this coaching staff clearly trusted Stevenson, for all his faults, more than TreVeyon Henderson before he went down, and that remaining the case now wouldn't be the most shocking outcome. Even so, I think this could be a big game for both backs against this Bengals front. Different coaching staff, but Stevenson had a monster game against Cincinnati last year, and I imagine Josh McDaniels is aware of some of their struggles on duo looks by now.

The Kayshon Boutte return should be the one that ultimately affects this offense more positively, meanwhile. Drake Maye and this passing offense were ultimately fine in his absence, but you definitely got the sense that they were lacking something on certain drives where he could've been perfectly suited to making plays downfield, and he's big a big part of what this team has done on third downs alongside Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry. Never a bad thing to have another uber reliable guy against a bad secondary, especially someone who's as productive downfield as Boutte is.

Betting Info

Points Spread: CIN +7 (-112) | NE -7 (-108)

Moneyline: CIN (+270) | NE (-340)

Over/Under: O 51.5 (-108) | U 51.5 (-112)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, November 21st. Always Bet Responsibly.

If you're doing anything this week, Patriots both ways and the under would be my advice. Pure gut play. Definitely telling that the Patriots are favored that much on the road, even with Burrow seemingly back.

Prediction

The Patriots have been perhaps the NFL's top road team all year, and especially with the Bengals in the state they're in, this is another case where anything other than a convincing win would be a massive disappointment. Joe Burrow or not, the Patriots should roll against what's an all-time bad defense.

Final Score: New England Patriots 33, Cincinnati Bengals 17

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