Quick Turn Around for the Patriots as they Host the New York Jets to Kick Off NFL Week 11

No rest for the wicked this week, as the New England Patriots, mere days after an upset victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, get their lone Thursday Night Football outing of 2025 out of the way against the New York Jets. Despite everything falling apart around the opposition at a glance —the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, and a knee injury taking Garrett Wilson out of the lineup for the time being —this is a team coming into Foxborough on a two-game winning streak, believe it or not. Granted, those are against the Bengals' makeshift defense and the Browns, but hey, they'll take those in a year with ex-Lions DC Aaron Glenn serving as a first-year head coach.

This would definitely be another in a line of subpar opponents for the Patriots, but true to traditional form, they aren't talking like it, let alone acting like it. So much so that the players opted for outdoor practice on a very windy, cold Tuesday, with temperatures expected to dip into the high 30s later tonight. We've seen some upsets in these Thursday games so far this year (Cincinnati over Pittsburgh, the New York Giants over Philadelphia, and San Francisco over Los Angeles). How do the Patriots avoid becoming the latest to fall in a game where they're favored by two possessions?

Game Info

Date: Thursday, November 13th

Start Time: 8:15 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: Amazon Prime/ABC locally (Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: "Nor'easter" Rivalries Uniform (Debut)

Players Already Ruled Out Before Thursday

Jets: Garrett Wilson (WR), Azareye'h Thomas (CB), Harrison Phillips (IDL)

Patriots: Austin Hooper, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kayshon Boutte, Christian Elliss

New York Jets

Defense

Not sure that this note will last the rest of the year after the moves the Jets made at the deadline, but through 10 weeks, they haven't allowed a single QB to throw for over 245 yards against them all year, and none over 240 since Week 1. In addition to Sauce no longer being with the Jets, they'll also be without their third-round pick from this year, corner Azareye'h Thomas, who suffered a concussion just days ago. That's really bad news for a team that's light in the secondary as it is, with safety Andre Cisco out for the year, as well as depth corner Kris Boyd sitting on IR at the moment. Definitely something to consider when this is a team that's been primarily running Cover-1 this year. Wouldn't be shocked if that isn't the case on Thursday.

Despite getting a pretty high percentage of run stuffs, the Jets' run defense currently sits in the bottom 10 in the league, in terms of yards per game (138.2) and allowed runs of 10-plus yards (34), this is another area where the Jets will be hurt by injuries, as Harrison Phillips, one of the better run defending IDLs in the league will be out as well thanks to a foot injury. Count that as a guy the Jets couldn't really have afforded to lose. Really good veteran glue guy who's gotten in on a ton of run stops this year. New York will definitely need guys like Michael Clemons, Jay Tufele, and Jowon Briggs to step up on the interior trenches this week.

Moving on to the Jets' pass rush now, and this has been the textbook definition of a feast or famine unit in 2025. As a team, they've combined for 10 sacks against the Steelers and Browns, and then seven against the seven other teams they've played so far. Will McDonald would be the key guy in that equation, who has put up five of his seven sacks in his last two games, but has been super inconsistent this year when it comes to applying pressure consistently. Expect to see him primarily over Will Campbell, with Jermaine Johnson, who's been pretty solid post-ACL surgery on the opposite flank of what has been a very blitz-heavy front; a dramatic shift from the Robert Saleh regime, who prided themselves on being able to get home with just four. Granted, they didn't blitz much at all vs. Josh Allen earlier in the year; perhaps it's a similar game plan vs. Drake Maye.

Offense

Despite the win, quarterback Justin Fields' performance vs. Cleveland was one of the most jarring in the NFL this season. Just 11 total throws, but beyond the line of scrimmage, he ended up 2-for-7 with an interception. Losing Garrett Wilson in the third quarter, seemingly for the foreseeable future, absolutely hurt them, especially with the lack of talented pass catchers on that roster, no two ways about it. You also cannot be a functional offense that wins games consistently if the entirety of your passing offense consists of throws behind the line of scrimmage or less than 5 yards downfield. Especially as someone who has been a pretty big Fields guy, Sunday was nothing short of atrocious, and the Jets were lucky the Browns QB situation is even worse.

The only two non-offensive linemen to note at this point would be Breece Hall, who was also nearly shipped to Kansas City last week, and then rookie tight end Mason Taylor, who, yes, is the son of Dolphins legend Jason Taylor. He's become a fairly reliable target out of necessity more than anything, but the real problem for the Jets is that he's the only non-running back set to suit up who has at least 12 catches this year. Yes, that's not a typo. Wideouts Josh Reynolds and Tyler Johnson don't even have as many catches combined as Breece Hall does this year (22), let alone Taylor. Just know that this team also was able to beat Cincinnati in this state without the special teams help they got vs. Cleveland, as sad as that sounds.

New England Patriots

Defense

I think the slow starts defensively for the Patriots are what they are at this point, which is one of the few legitimate gripes with them so far this year. That, and the inability to limit teams to three or fewer once they reach the red zone, which, believe it or not, is historically bad through 10 weeks. At some point, that's absolutely going to rear its head; will that be this week? I'd certainly hope not.

Given the lack of pass-catching talent on the other side this week, I'm expecting the Patriots to take a page out of the Bills playbook from Week 2 and primarily rush only four and put seven in coverage/six in coverage with a spy for the most part. Take this for what it's worth, but Justin Fields has the second-worst EPA per dropback in football when he isn't blitzed, the fifth-worst passer rating, and the third-fewest yards. Don't expect a nine-sack performance like the Broncos had out in London, but I could see either Christian Barmore or Milton Williams having success up the gut if some plays go long and the edge containment holds up on Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou.

Offense

Especially on a short week with Terrell Jennings hurt but practicing, and Rhamondre Stevenson out again, TreVeyon Henderson should have every opportunity to build off of his outing down in Tampa. We touched on this in the recap, but he wasn't super efficient on the non-TD runs, and while he can absolutely break a long run at any time, what we need to see out of Henderson is more of those body blow 4-6 yard runs on a consistent basis. Even if it's not in abundance tonight, you'd like not to have every one of his runs be feast or famine.

Beyond just getting Henderson going on a more consistent basis, another big reason why that would be huge tonight is the Jets' ability to defend play-action passes. They're the only team in the NFL to allow double-digit touchdowns (12) on play-action passes, and outside of two of them (a 43 and 44 44-yard deep shot to George Pickens and Tee Higgins, respectively), most of them can be chalked up to getting the Jets linebackers' eyes caught in the backfield to great effect. The Patriots haven't been super gung-ho with the PA game outside of the Buffalo and Pittsburgh game, but I think there could be some massive opportunities for Drake Maye on that front with the missing pieces on the other side of the ball.

Betting Info

Points Spread: NYJ +12.5 (-105) | NE -12.5 (-115)

Moneyline: NYJ (+575) | NE (-850)

Over/Under: O 43.5 (-115) | U 43.5 (-105)

Lines via DraftKings as of Wednesday, November 12th. Always Bet Responsibly.

It's been a long, long time since the Patriots have been favored in a game like they are tonight. This is only the fourth road game the Jets have played so far if you don't count the London game, and they've covered in two of those three this year as underdogs in all three, because, of course. Now, typically as a personal rule of thumb, I'd avoid the double digit spreads if I was betting, but I'd say a Patriots both ways and the over wouldn't be the worst same game parlay ever made. Patriots games have gone over 43.5 in each of the last five weeks and in six of the last seven.

Prediction

In a different universe where the Jets didn't just dismantle their defense, I think this game could've been an interesting affair on a short week, but baring a monster outing by the Jets pass rush and/or a rapid turnaround performance by Justin Fields, I can't see the Jets making this competitive for four quarters. Anything other than a definitive win for the Patriots here would be very dissapointing.

Final Score: New England Patriots 31, New York Jets 13

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