The Patriots Host the Pittsburgh Steelers for the First Time in Six Years, Hoping to Advance to 2-1

Fresh off a huge win down in Miami for the first time since 2019, the Patriots are throwing it back for a weekend to honor Julien Edelman and (regrettably) Bill Parcells by inducting them into the Patriots Hall of Fame, and then hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers 24 hours later. Their AFC North foe is coming off a brutal fourth-quarter collapse against the Seattle Seahawks, and worse than that, is going to be down multiple starters on the defensive side of the ball tomorrow. It's been a brutal start to the year, definitely for Mike Tomlin and his DC Teryl Austin, but do the Steelers have the manpower despite that to win just their second ever game in Gillette Stadium?

Date: Sunday, September 21st

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Ian Eagle and J.J. Watt on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Pat Patriot Reds

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Steelers: Alex Highsmith (EDGE, IR), DeShon Elliott (SAF), Joey Porter Jr. (CB)

Patriots: Christian Gonzalez

Pittsburgh Steelers

Defense

The alarming lack of defense in Pittsburgh through two weeks has been one of the sneakier big stories in the NFL so far. They sit bottom eighth in run and pass defense, are one of five teams to allow double-digit runs of 10-plus yards through two games, despite running stacked boxes at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and are now dealing with a bevy of notable injuries on that side of the ball. They'll be without EDGE Alex Highsmith, CB Joey Porter Jr., as well as SAF DeShon Elliott this weekend. As of Friday, first-rounder Derrick Harmon is TBD to make his season debut after a preseason knee injury, but he'd be on a pitch count per Steelers DC Teryll Austin.

Not ideal, if I say so myself, but one guy on that defense who should be motivated to pick it up after a truly atrocious game last week vs. Seattle is one Jalen Ramsey. Even though he came away with a pick of Sam Darnold, he let up a whopping 8 catches on 10 targets for 116 yards and a TD, including a 43-yard bomb to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Pittsburgh has primarily used him as a boundary corner so far, but he also has snaps in the slot and even a dozen or so at safety, so I'm interested to see if that changes at all, given the Steelers could deploy ex-Patriot Jabrill Peppers for the first time. Lots of worn legs in that secondary, though, with Ramsey and Darius Slay at the corner, and we've seen teams find success going deep vs. the Steelers with some level of regularity so far. Wouldn't be surprised if that continues in some form.

With Alex Highsmith on the shelf, the Steelers' pass rush will undoubtedly be under the microscope for Steelers fans. World-renowned wide-nine merchant T.J. Watt has not been a major impact guy on the Steelers' pass rush front so far, with just five pressures and zero sacks by my count, and ultimately, his presence negating teams from running it towards his side of the line has done nothing since the Steelers' run defense has been horrendous through two games. In theory, he has a good matchup this week going up against Morgan Moses, but since the Steelers are dead set on running their EDGE guys at nine tech primarily, he's naturally going to get extra bodies thrown at him. Keep an eye out for ex-Ohio State Buckeye Jack Sawyer and Nick Herbig, who'll likely be rotating on the other side of Watt this Sunday. Both had good outings vs. the Seahawks.

Lastly, let's examine Pittsburgh's run defense. Injuries aside, I can't remember the last time a Steelers team has looked this bad defending the run. Even stacking the box at a 41 percent clip, they're still giving up a boatload of chunk plays, giving up north of four yards per clip, and the Jets and Seahawks had no problem slowing down the pace on them with the ground game.

Offense

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemingly came back down to earth last weekend after a revenge game (in his own mind and his mind alone) vs. the Jets, and his pick in the endzone near the end of the third quarter vs. Seattle more or less started the fourth quarter freefall the Steelers suffered. He's ultimately been ok in a two-game sample size, but the left side of his line has been egregiously suspect. Watching all seven of his sacks so far, I'd credit all but one of them (wholly or in part) to left tackle Broderick Jones or left guard Issac Seumalo. While I believe the Patriots will have chances to get Rodgers down, the game plan, as it usually is vs. him, is to keep him in the pocket at all costs. He's gotten outside both by design and otherwise and has produced at an elite clip so far, and with some of the Patriots' coverage woes (over the middle especially), things could get very dicey early.

Pittsburgh's prize offseason acquisition, DK Metcalf, is someone who gave the Patriots trouble last year. If they can get him opportunities to produce after the catch like the Steelers did against New York, he could very well do so again. Interestingly enough, however, is that Rodgers hasn't targeted him deep once yet. Much of Pittsburgh's passing attack success has come from getting one of its several tight ends involved, plus the running backs. The only wide receiver on that roster who's gotten more than one catch outside of Metcalf would be Calvin Austin. We saw the Patriots struggle big time with Brock Bowers, and my worry is they could be in for a long day again with any of Jonnu Smith (remember him, McDaniels???), Pat Freiermuth, or Darnell Washington.

Additionally, while Pittsburgh's run offense has been inconsistent through two games, I'm interested to see what Arthur Smith can scheme up to help them get back on track. Only the Raiders and Bengals have averaged fewer yards per game on the ground two weeks into the year, and Rodgers throwing 35+ times a game at his age isn't sustainable long-term.

New England Patriots

Defense

The big news this week is that Christian Gonzalez was ruled out about an hour ago, which makes me a bit nervous about how this team will defend Metcalf while simultaneously dealing with the Steelers' tight ends. There's been a featured pass catcher from the opposition each week, and while Carlton Davis should do fine against Metcalf, will "fine" be enough?

What else worries me this week is the poor linebacker play from Bob Spillane and Christian Elliss continuing, as well as Rodgers potentially being able to take advantage of any mistakes from rookie safety Craig Woodson, or even Jaylinn Hawkins, for that matter. Straight to the point, the missed tackles are inexcusable, and those two groups have to be better in pass coverage, especially against tight ends and running backs. That Devon Achane TD Spillane allowed last Sunday was as bad as any score the Patriots have allowed in the last few years.

Offense

The other part of the Steelers defense that I wanted to bring up is that gap runs, in particular, have tormented them. Do you want to know who loves some gap-based running game? Josh McDaniels. Rhamondre Stevenson had himself quite the game last week, and just looking at trends, he could very well be in line for another with a Steelers team banged up as it is up front. They are physically incapable of handling teams running away from T.J. Watt defensively, and if they aren't going to adjust around that, there's yards to be had in the run game for New England. Won't have to worry much about Watt vs. a hurt Moses if the Patriots can get anything they want with Mondre, Antonio Gibson, or TreVeyon Henderson.

For Drake Maye, this could seriously be his full-on breakout game coming off last week. As bad as Miami was, that was the kind of game great QBs should have vs that caliber of opponent, and he's got a huge opportunity to build on that vs. a historical rival. The Steelers are likely to be a bit blitz-heavy if these first two weeks are any indication, but after a tough rookie year against pressure, Maye has quietly been one of the better QBs in the entire league against the blitz, believe it or not, through two weeks of play. I don't think I need to get into the McDaniels-style offense, historically shredding the Tomlin/Cowherd-era Steelers much, but if they opt to play a bit more zone than they've seemed to have in these first two weeks, this feels like a prime spot to start seeing Maye be a consistent playmaker as a runner for the first time this year.

Betting Info

Points Spread: PIT -1.5 (-115) | NE +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline: PIT (-125) | NE (+105)

Over/Under: O 44.5 (-112) | U 44.5 (-109)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, September 19th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Even with the bad defense and injuries, the Steelers find themselves as betting favorites for the third consecutive week to open up this 2025 season. While a lot has changed for the Patriots over the last 24 months, they are a whopping 11-4 outright against Pittsburgh since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002, with a 6-1 record in Foxborough during that stretch, the lone loss coming in 2008.

Additionally, for Pittsburgh, this will be the 10th time they've been favored on the road since 2021, sporting a 5-4 record against the spread with an average margin of victory of 1.3 (6-3 outright, with the under hitting in five of those prior nine matchups). However, given Pittsburgh's current defensive struggles and the fact that they weren't world beaters coming into this week, I'd bet on the Patriots both ways and the over here if I were placing a bet on this game.

Prediction

As much problems as the Steelers could cause offensively, given some of the Patriots' weaknesses, I still think their pass rush can make some big plays against the Steelers' left side of the line, and unless they have a fix for their run game or cornerback woes, I think the Patriots are going to leave this weekend 2-1. That's a banged-up defense on the other side as it is, don't let them off the hook.

Final Score: New England Patriots 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 21

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