Do the Patriots Have Enough in the Tank to Outlast the All-World Houston Texans Defense?

The Patriots getting the opportunity to play in, and more importantly, win a legit rock fight playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers certainly answered questions on wheter or not they could compete with the NFL's best, and was the kind of game you can only benifit from being in, grinding it out for 60 minutes on a night where points were at a premium. The downside is that it only gets tougher this week, with DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans coming to town.

Offensively, Houston didn't exactly have a banner evening against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with multiple turnovers and a slew of penalties, but when you have a defense that features guys like Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Jalen Pitre, and Derek Stingley Jr., good things typically happen sooner or later, and boy did they ever last Monday. Two defensive scores more than doubled up Pittsburgh's offensive production on the night, and four sacks alongside 17 pressures were essentially all the Texans needed.

Now, Houston will be coming to Foxborough without No. 1 wideout Nico Collins, who's out with a concussion, but is that enough reason to doubt this Texans squad?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, January 18th

Start Time: 3:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: ABC/ESPN (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Silver Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Texans: Nico Collins (WR), Justyn Watson (WR)

Patriots: N/A

Houston Texans

Defense

What the Texans defense lacks in complexity (they don't blitz or rotate in coverage...like at all), it makes up for tenfold with relentlessness and tenacity. You won't find many teams that rally to the ball as hard as they do, and they simply don't allow a ton of explosive plays or let you find the endzone much. Just five teams (including the Chargers) allowed fewer than Houston's 33 TDs in the regular season, and their 29 turnovers trail just the Jags and Bears, and it's not by much.

The strength of this Texans unit is the same as the last time the Patriots met them in Week 6 last year: Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. They were the only teammate duo in football to each record 12 sacks in the regular season and combine for 153 pressures. Not ideal for New England, given the rough game for the left side of the line last weekend.

Given that they don't blitz much, it should come as no suprise that the Texans are big on using Cover-3 and quarters, and although they didn't run it nearly as much vs. Pittsburgh last weekend, they were one of 14 teams to run Cover-1 man looks at atleast a 20 percent clip, running at 20 percent on the dot through Week 11, but just 11 percent in Pittsburgh. That's something that could play right into the Patriots' hands, but the issue is there's a ton of elite coverage guys to deal with. Jalen Pitre might be the best slot defender in football, Derek Stingely is one of about three non-Pat Surtian CBs who have claim to being the best in the league, even Kamari Lassiter, who might be the "weak" man in this secondary, is still competent for a corner who's 6'0 and 180 lbs.

We haven't even touched on the linebackers yet, either. For as objectively dirty a player as Azeez Al-Shaair has demonstrated himself to be over the last several years, he's absolutely a guy who will make some big plays, more so in the run game, and the same goes for his running mate, Henry To'oTo'o. And that, folks, is about the crash course on one of the best defenses in football. Josh McDaniels, Drake Maye, and co. have their hands full.

Offense

The news of Nico Collins being out of this game is gargantuan to say the least. Tough given that this is his second concussion in the span of a few months, but as far as the rest of the team goes, they need everyone to step it up because there were stretches of really bad play against the Steelers on Monday. This offense incurred five penalties, four of which were procedural in nature (False start x2, illegal formation, and a delay of game, which admittedly came when the game was firmly in control late), gave up pressure both against the blitz and with the Steelers rushing four, and ran just eight offensive plays in the red zone. As much as the Patriots offense should feel as if they have something to prove, this Texans team probably does so even more.

That starts with C.J. Stroud, who was by far the best third-down QB on the week, but when you factor in everything, had a pretty subpar game last week. Five fumbles (two resulting in turnovers), a red zone pick, and just one touchdown on 21/31 passing for 250 yards isn't exactly the kind of game you expect to win on most weeks, and this was another case of Stroud getting hit a decent bit. He's taken 14 sacks in his last three playoff outings, and despite some reshuffling upfront on the offensive line, Houston's protection didn't see a ton of general improvement. Keep an eye out today and into tomorrow on the availability of old friend Trent Brown at right tackle. He practiced on Friday but has been dealing with an ankle injury as of late that kept him out of practice until then. Much like LA, Houston isn't exactly in a position to be losing the big boys up front.

Without Nico Collins, there's a ton of pressure on the rest of Houston's pass catchers beyond Christian Kirk, who was automatic against Pittsburgh. Realistically, at least one of tight end Dalton Schultz, or receivers Xavier Hutchinson or rookie Jayden Higgins needs to become a bigger part of what the Texans are offensively, and to be frank, I don't expect Kirk to have the kind of game he had on Monday unless he just plans on being 2011 Hakeem Nicks this postseason. Higgins naturally feels like the likely candidate, given he's going to be the primary X with Collins sidelined, but we haven't seen a tight end really hurt the Patriots in a while, and I think Schultz is absolutely capable of doing damage. Look for Stroud to get him involved underneath.

New England Patriots

Defense

A double dose of good news this week, with the return of Khyiris Tonga all but set in stone, and with Christian Gonzalez set to miss no time after leaving Sunday's win when he went into concussion protocol. Really, the first time in a long time that we'll see the Patriots' defense at 100 percent, and for as suspect as Houston looked offensively last week, you can't have enough good players on that side of the ball this time of year anyway, and especially against someone like Stroud if he can get into a groove.

I don't anticipate the Patriots having anywhere near as much trouble as Pittsburgh did defending the run, but the interesting wrinkle here is that Houston, with OC Nick Caley, effectively runs a McDaniels offense with some shades of McVay influence, given Caley's tenure with the Rams. They should be expecting a lot of 11 personnel on early downs, pre-snap motion on run and pass downs, and selective with play action attempts.

Even if Trent Brown is in this week, I think this is another OL/DL matchup that certainly favors New England, and once again, interior vs. interior, especially so, is a plus matchup for the Patriots. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Patriots keep up blitzing, given some of Stroud's boom-bust potential against five rushers and a less-than-100 percent pass-catching group, but that's where you need Marcus Jones, Carlton Davis, and the linebackers to pick up the slack in coverage.

Offense

Drake Maye definitely had some tough snaps against the Chargers' defense, given how complex the things they throw at teams are, but as cliché as this sounds, this game more or less falls on him to not make the mistakes he made vs. LA. I can't envision the stat line after Sunday says he had either two or three turnovers that this team wins, and in any case, this team needs him to get into a groove much faster than he did last weekend. Things like the quick game and getting Maye out of the pocket on bootlegs should be essential on the Patriots' opening drives to keep him from getting drilled in the pocket. The bottom line is that Anderson and Hunter are going to get him on the ground; it'll just be a matter of how timely those sacks are, and if Maye can be smarter with the ball and not give up the two fumbles he did last week.

Hard to overstate just how big a game this will be for both Will Campbell and Jared Wilson as well. They will absolutely lose reps in this game, but as long as they can mentally not get too down on themselves, I have enough hope, more so in the case of Campbell, that they'll be able to hunker down for the long haul.

Prediction

Had the Texans had Nico Collins in the lineup, they would've been my pick this week, but I have a hard time seeing Houston walk out with a win in this spot without him. It's going to be a very similar game as wildcard weekend in that it may not look pretty, but if the Patriots can keep the turnovers to a minimum and fire up just enough better offensively, I can't see them losing this game.

Final Score: New England Patriots 20, Houston Texans 13

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