2026 Monster Energy Supercross Season Primer

After as eventful an offseason in the realm of SMX since the winter of 2021, we are now only a matter of days from kicking off what should be an intriguing Monster Energy Supercross season in Anaheim. Lots of rider movement this year, headlined by Eli Tomac to KTM and Chase Sexton to Kawasaki, and that's just sticking in the United States, and this year's Supercross calendar looks really different than most, thanks to some stadiums coming off the schedule as they prepare to host World Cup games this summer. Houston, Nashville, and St. Louis find their way back into the mix, and for the first time since 1995, Cleveland will be hosting a round of Supercross.

What's unfortunately become an unavoidable trend in the 2020s is season-defining injuries before we even get a single gate drop in Anaheim. Honda will be without both Jo Shimoda and Jett Lawrence, KTM will be without Julien Beaumer (never mind the fact they lost Tom Vialle, who's returned to MXGP), and Triumph's Jordon Smith will miss the opening stretch of his 450 debut season, all just for starters. Beyond the Lawrence injury being a tough blow for the 450 class, the 250 division this year has definitely lost a ton of key players, leaving really just Haiden Deegan, Levi Kitchen, and Max Anstie as your contenders out west. So, sticking with just the 450 class here, here are some storylines that I'm interested in going into A1 this Saturday Night.

Ducati Debut

Kicking things off with the newest manufacturer in the States feels like the right way to go. From the standpoint of simply getting a program off the ground, I really like the TLD Ducati squad landing Justin Barcia and Dylan Ferrandis as their inaugural 450 riders. I can't imagine they'll win many races on the 2026 SMX calendar, if any, but to have Barcia, especially, who's ridden about a dozen different bikes at a relatively high level and will be great on the testing/R&D front, is priceless. Barcia, of course, hasn't had a ton of seat time thanks to a collarbone injury, but at the very least, did get about two weeks in before getting hurt.

As far as the Desmo450 goes as a stock platform, it's one of the more lightweight bikes in class, but Ducati touts a horsepower number of 63.5 at 9400 rpm, and can get as high as 11900 rpm, thanks to the desmodromic engine, which has been a Ducati staple for decades (click here if you want a crash course). Also, lots of cool sensor tech for traction control, and although it comes in at over $11,000, you get the bike with Brembo brakes and Pirelli tires fresh out of the box.

As a stock bike, the Desmo does look really good as far as the plastics go for my taste, but under the TLD/Red Bull banner, here's what Baricia and Ferrandis' bikes will look like come A1.

Hunter's Best Chance

Given that his younger brother is out of the picture for the time being, 2026 will comfortably be Hunter Lawrence's best chance to step out of his shadow. A1 has been a bit of a nightmare for him as a 450 guy, not making the Main Event in his first-ever 450 start and finishing 11th last year, but he did string together some very solid outings before a labrum injury in Tampa ended his season. Consistency has never really been a big issue for Hunter, especially in Motocross, but unequivocally, with a lot of rider movement this offseason and clearly positioned as Honda's No. 1 guy this year, he might not have a better chance than right now to show he can become a consistent race winner indoors in the premier class.

Orange Crush

He's already done live races on a KTM in the final months of 2025, but there's simply something about Eli Tomac on an orange bike that doesn't compute in my brain (don't even get me started with Tim Gajser on a Yamaha or Jeffrey Herlings on a Honda in the GPs). In any event, a relatively promising start to 2025 Supercross was cut short for Tomac thanks to a fibula break during qualifying in Tampa, where he won in San Diego and rattled off top fives in Anaheim 1 and Glendale.

The steel-frame bike aspect of this Tomac-KTM union is comfortably the most fascinating, given his track record on the Japanese aluminum frame bikes, but by all accounts, Tomac said he was starting to get more comfortable with it as he gained more seat time when he linked up with Josh Mosiman of MX Action Mag. Additionally, no hydraulic clutch yet, by the sounds of it, either, but he did test with it.

The fact that Jett is effectively out of title contention should make most feel like Tomac has a real shot to get a second Supercross title, but my biggest question for him is how well he is going to be in the first month of the year. Since the Achilles tear, his average finish in the opening five races of the 2024 and 2025 seasons (which does include that Tampa race where he gutted it out with a fibula break) is 6.6, down from 2.8 in his 2022 title season and 2023. A1 is typically not great for him historically, but those next four rounds are going to be the big tell.

Sexton's Year 1 for Team Green

While Chase Sexton's two-year stint at Red Bull KTM was far from a failure and netted him a Pro Motocross title, I don't think many people were surprised when the initial rumors of him bolting to Kawasaki started popping up last year. If there were stretches when he felt great about the bike, they didn't last long, and word of it was getting out pretty frequently. So, back to a Japanese bike he goes, and speciffically to a 450 Kawasaki program that's been pretty unlucky ever since Jason Anderson's very strong 2022 Supercross campaign.

As always with Sexton, it's going to ultimately come down to how he is upstairs and if he's at max comfort on the KX450. No reason to believe he won't, at the very least, feel better back on an aluminum frame bike compared to the KTM, and I think it's fair to assume Kawasaki isn't averse to mixing things up bike-wise, as they were near the end with Eli Tomac, for example. But again, if we get rounds like Tampa or Foxborough where the mistakes compound and cost him dearly, there's enough of a sample size there to say this is just what Sexton is as a 450 guy indoors now. If he can even slightly eliminate that, I'd be stunned if he didn't take home his second career 450 Supercross title.

250 West Championship Pick: Haiden Deegan (I give it three rounds until he pulls some variation of the "people are doubting me" card)

250 East Championship Pick: Cole Davies

450 Championship Pick: Chase Sexton

Main Image via KTM