Can Drake Maye and the Patriots Kick-Off 2025 on the Right Foot vs. the Pete Carroll Raiders?

Over the last seven or eight years, Week 1 has been a mixed bag for the Patriots, but no matter who has headed the sidelines, been the top dog under center, or played on defense, home openers have been a major struggle for this team during the same timeframe. Going into Mike Vrabel's first-ever regular season game coaching the team he played eight seasons for, New England has dropped their last four home openers, as well as five of their previous eight. Not great by any means, but they draw an opponent who has undergone some notable transformations this offseason in their own right: the Las Vegas Raiders.

Bringing Pete Carroll out of a one-year retirement, Vegas also sports a ton of new faces, including Geno Smith under center, Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty as the bell cow, Jamal Adams, who's now a full-time linebacker, plus some new pass catchers led by second rounder Jack Bech. All things considered, this is a team with a fascinating dichotomy, having the league's oldest head coach with one of the youngest rosters in the entire league. Even with some legit veterans like Maxx Crosby, Elandon Roberts, Jeremy Chinn, and Germaine Pratt, it'll be interesting to see how some of these first- and second-year players contribute on a team that was nearly bottom five last season.

For the Patriots, many of the same things can be said about them as well, but some concerns are going into Sunday. Above all else, the fact that we've crossed the month mark of the last time No. 1 corner Christian Gonzalez practiced, and linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who hopes to redeem a pretty bad 2024, is set to miss at least the opening four games of the year after getting hurt in mini-camp. Not exactly ideal, given this team has consistently had trouble making it out of the first month of the season in good standing ever since Tom Brady left in 2020. Does that change in 2025?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, September 7th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Grey Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Raiders: Amari Cooper (WR, Retired)

Patriots: Christian Gonzalez

Las Vegas Raiders

Defense

One of the interesting wrinkles about the Raiders team is that Pete Carroll opted to keep in place Raiders DC (and one-time Patriots defensive assistant) Patrick Graham, who was initially brought to Sin City by Josh McDaniels. Why, you ask? Simple, on top of continuity's sake, Graham had been calling a ton of Cover-3 as of last year (33.1% in 2024, good for eighth most in the NFL per NextGenStats), which has been the backbone of all those great defenses Carroll had out in Seattle.

Unfortunately for Vegas, this defense isn't exactly the 2013 Seahawks, and they lost a significant chunk of talent in the offseason. Robert Spillane is a quick one to point to, given he's now a Patriot, but they also outright released IDL Christian Wilkins earlier this summer, who we had believed to be rehabbing a Jones fracture injury from last year, but it appeared the Raiders didn't love the fact that he opted not to get surgery—a disastrous ending to a relationship that lasted all of five games.

Wilkins was a legitimate game-wrecking talent in the interior as a Miami Dolphin, and NFL fans never really got to see a tandem of him and Maxx Crosby get themselves acclimated. Carroll and Graham can only hope that Crosby's running mate, Malcolm Koonce, who missed all of last year with a torn ACL, can come out of the gates swinging. He recorded eight sacks and 51 pressures in his last full season, back in 2023.

The real concern with the unit is that the Raiders are returning not a single starter from last year at either off-ball linebacker or in the secondary. Elandon Roberts, Germaine Pratt, and Devin White are serviceable enough options as it relates to the former, but there are some fair concerns about this secondary outside of safety, Jeremy Chinn. Realistically, you're looking at ex-Stanford Cardinal Kyu Blu Kelly and ex-Packer Eric Stokes as the top cornerback options for this team, and the former isn't a lock this week due to a hamstring injury of his own. That's where rookie Darien Porter could come into play. He has great movement skills, has the ideal frame for a boundary corner, and is someone Carroll has mentioned as having faith in, headed into Week 1. Keep an eye out for the Iowa State product in any case.

Offense

Vegas' offense interests me greatly, not because I think they'll be world beaters/a borderline top 10 unit, it's just a unit with some (very) exciting pieces mixed in with some question marks (the O-Line). Let's start with the exciting pieces: Brock Bowers, my No. 2 outright prospect in the 2024 draft and arguably the NFL's best tight end, not even 20 games into his career. Should the Patriots lose this game, he will be about 80% of the reason why. Now, what ultimately stands out about Brock Bowers? I think this one play gives you the bulk of the "Brock Bowers experience".

Horrifying. Patriots DC Terrell Williams correctly defined him as a receiver in a tight end's body, but he's just as good a blocker, which is scary given how productive his rookie year was. There's not a single weak point in his game; he's capable of lining up everywhere and is capable of being a threat as a motion man, and he can give any defensive back a handful. Had he been healthy for this game, I'm positive we would've gotten some of Christian Gonzalez on him. Old friend Jakobi Meyers, who will be playing despite requesting a trade some weeks ago, and rookie standout Dont'e Thornton will be a formidable pass-catching threat to contain as well, but I do have some concerns about how the Patriots will be able to contain Bowers, because "stopping" him is of the equation.

Now we get to rookie Ashton Jeanty, who took the nation by storm last year at Boise State. He's another in a recent line of elite running back prospects who boast some of the best contact balance skills since Marshawn Lynch, with some elite explosiveness as both a runner and a pass catcher. The catch being that, despite his spectacular 2024, fumbles were a problem for him last year, as well as in 2023, with nine total in that span. Combine that with a returning offensive line that was not a good run-blocking unit last year, and it's hard to gauge his impact in his first start, but here's to hoping those issues with the Patriots' tackling in the preseason are done and dusted, because this is a back who can turn those kinds of runs into 20-plus yard gains just like that.

Geno Smith's reunification with Carroll was a logical move for a team seeking short-term stability at quarterback while establishing an identity under a new program. His final year in Seattle was not one for the books, in that he was one of four QBs in the league to face pressure on at least 240 dropbacks, and was one of just two to have double-digit picks under pressure, and now, he's playing in front of a line that allowed the second most pressures in the league this last season. Another thing to keep in mind is that Smith had five red-zone picks a season ago, plus a red-zone fumble (recovered by Seattle). If the Patriots' D-Line can do its job of muddying the waters upfront, they should have chances to make some game-changing plays. Still, Smith is as capable a gunslinger in the league; we saw that last year in Week 2 when he went for 300+ yards on 44 attempts.

New England Patriots

Defense

For sure to miss this week, it's more than fair to be concerned about the Patriots in this opening stretch of the year, should Christian Gonzalez miss time coming back from his hamstring injury. The other side of that is this team paid a ton of money to guys like Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, and Robert Spillane to help pick up the defensive slack, and should be expected to lead the charge in Gonzo's absence. Much of the excitement about this defense for me is that you've paired a player like Christian Barmore, who felt poised to build on a phenomenal 2023 before his blood clot situation last year, with a proven winner and pass-rush monster in the trenches, such as Williams. I don't think it'll quite be Williams and Jalen Carter, but it won't be terribly far off.

Chad Graff had brought this up, so credit to him, but if past trends are to hold true, the Patriots won't be sending the house much here, or at all really, and although it was with Seattle's line last year, Geno Smith didn't get blitzed much himself and still faced a ton of pressure. Keeping seven in coverage, especially just to potentially have an extra body to throw at Bowers if need be, is a very likely plan of attack early on. I'm also looking at the aforementioned Davis as a key guy here. Assuming he can keep Jakobi Meyers in check, that would make life significantly easier for everyone on that side of the ball.

Sticking with the secondary, with Jabrill Peppers stunningly no longer on this team, all eyes should be on fourth-rounder Craig Woodson out of Cal. He clearly did enough in the eyes of this team this summer to warrant both Peppers being let go, and Kyle Dugger winding up on the trade block for a time. His knack for doing a bit of everything in Berkley has carried over to Foxborough excellently. Just earlier this week, linebacker Christian Elliss talked with Adam Jones and Rich Keefe on 'EEI about the rookie, as well as other new full-time starter Jaylinn Hawkins.

Offense

The offensive game plan feels simple enough, at least in theory. Josh McDaniels getting these backs involved in the passing game feels like a given, and then try to stress an all-new secondary with play action whenever those opportunities arise. The Raiders don't exactly have the spryest linebacker room in the league with Pratt, Roberts, and Adams, and they feel exploitable in that sense.

Will Campbell ending up on the injury report with an ankle issue right before this weekend is less than ideal, but for anyone worried about the possibility of him tango-ing with Maxx Crosby, know this: Pretty much all of your star pass rushers are predominatly lining up on the opposite side of the ball these days, and No. 98 in black and silver is no different. In his 12 games last year, he spent only 74 pass rush snaps on the defense's right side (over left tackle). He got eight pressures on those snaps, 21 percent of which were on third downs. Morgan Moses will likely have his hands full with him otherwise, but I wouldn't lose sleep over Campbell vs. Crosby, unless the Raiders saw something this preseason that they think they can exploit with a Crosby matchup specifically.

The last time Stefon Diggs played a regular-season snap was October 27th in Houston, Texas, before he went down with an ACL tear. 11 months later, the 31-year-old is set to embark on his 11th NFL season with his fourth different team, and his usage given the injury and lack of preseason tune-up he got. Going back and watching some of his Texans' film, the lion's share of his targets came on in breaking routes, and over 50% of his snaps came from the slot, something that almost certainly won't carry over from Houston. Diggs, earlier this week, admitted that it won't be all on him in terms of scheme, but against a secondary with question marks, I think it'd be good to get him involved early in the quick game and see if he can catch fire right away. If that happens, it should open things up perfectly for Drake Maye and McDaniels.

Betting Info

Points Spread: LV +2.5 (-102) | NE -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline: LV (+124) | NE (-148)

Over/Under: O 44.5 (-102) | U 44.5 (-118)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, September 5th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Hard to really go in depth with either team betting-wise due to all the changes, so let's go with a strictly gut play for Week 1: Patriots both ways and the under.

Prediction

It would be unwise to completely write off the Raiders this weekend due to a combination of Gonzo being on the shelf, the high-end talent at the Raiders' disposal, and Pete Carroll. However, accounting for their offensive line and secondary, a Week 1 upset special might be a bridge too far. I'm definitely worried about the Patriots' ability to cover Brock Bowers for four quarters, but the Patriots' defense, even without Gonzalez, remains a formidable unit and is much better upfront than it was last year. Combine that with a revamped offense, and I think this one ends in a Patriots victory to kick off 2025, albeit by less than a full possession.

Final Score: New England Patriots 24, Las Vegas Raiders 20

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