Gaffney's 2025 New England Patriots Season Preview

Since winning Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta in the winter of 2019, the New England Patriots have played in a total of two postseason games (both losses), incurred a regular-season record of 45-55, and are now on their third head coach in as many seasons. Once again, it's another familiar face, and former linebacker at that: three-time Super Bowl winner and ex-Titans head coach Mike Vrabel. Coming off a disappointing year with Jerod Mayo at the helm, he's now tasked with getting the ship righted after spending the majority of last year helping out in the background in Cleveland in more of an advisory role with Kevin Stefanski's staff.

Optimism has been a key trend with these Patriots ever since his hiring in mid-January, after what was admittedly a sham hiring process. From bringing back the prodigal son, Josh McDaniels, and well-respected/traveled defensive assistant Terrell Williams to join him as coordinators, to a massive free agent haul that included Milton Williams and Stefon Diggs, plus a draft class that received near universal praise, it's hard to blame Patriots fans for having their hopes up before Week 1.

Now just less than 24 hours away from this roster becoming finalized, what awaits the New England Patriots in 2025?

Coaching Staff and Front Office Personnel

- Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (First Year as Patriots Head Coach)

- Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels (15^th Total Year as Patriots OC)

- Defensive Coordinator: Terrell Williams (First Year as Patriots DC)

- Special Teams Coordinator: Jeremy Springer (Second Year as Patriots STC)

- Notable Assistant Coaches: Thomas Brown (Passing Game Coordinator/TEs Coach), Doug Marone (OL Coach), Todd Downing (WRs Coach), Ashton Grant (QBs Coach), Tony Dews (RBs Coach), Ben McAdoo (Sr. Offensive Asst.), Justin Hamilton (CBs Coach), Zak Khur (LBs Coach),

- General Manager: Eliot Wolf (Second Year as Patriots De Facto GM)

Notable Additions

- Free Agency: Milton Williams (IDL, Eagles), Stefon Diggs (WR, Texans), Robert Spillane (LB, Raiders), Morgan Moses (OT, Jets), Carlton Davis (CB, Lions), Harold Landry (EDGE, Titans), Garrett Bradburry (IOL, Vikings), Khyris Tonga (IDL, Cardinals), Joshua Dobbs (QB, 49ers)

- Draft: Will Campbell (OT, LSU), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State), Kyle Williams (WR, Washington State), Jared Wilson (IOL, Georgia)

- Trades: N/A

Notable Subtractions

- Free Agency: Jonathan Jones (CB, Commanders), Deatrich Wise (EDGE/IDL, Commanders), Jacoby Brissett (QB, Cardinals), Joe Cardona (LS, Dolphins)

- Trades: Joe Milton (To Dallas), Davon Godchaux (To New Orleans)

- Releases: David Andrews (Retired), Ja’Whuan Bentley

2024 Patriots Offensive Team Ranks

- 17.0 Points Per Game (30th)

-  292.0 Yards Per Game (31st)

- 176.2 Pass Yards and 115.8 Rush Yards Per Game (32nd and 13th)

- 34.9% Conversion Rate on Third Down (29th)

- 46.8% Red Zone Conversion Rate (30th)

- 23 Turnovers (t-23rd)

2024 Patriots Defensive Team Ranks

- 24.5 Points Allowed Per Game (22nd)

- 342.9 Yards Allowed Per Game (22nd)

- 211.5 Pass Yards and 131.4 Rush Yards Allowed Per Game (10th and 23rd)

- 43.3% Conversion Rate Allowed on Third Down (26th)

- 63.2% Red Zone Conversion Rate Allowed (25th)

- 12 Takeaways (31^st)

The Youth Movement (Again)

Some time ago, on Mike Reiss said he thought that this Patriots team would ultimately go as far as Drake Maye can take them, and while I’d agree to a certain extent, their group of four offensive rookies also have a chance to dictate some of that if even three of these four guys can become key contributors right away. Of course, I’m talking about Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, and Jared Wilson.

Henderson has been a key standout just about all summer, and Patriots fans got the best possible look at the kind of game-changing speed he brings to the table in preseason Week 1 on his first-ever touch (never mind the several he got after).

Backs with the high floor blend of rushing ability, pass catching ability, speed/acceleration, and pass protection ability (plus a few cases of him being an excellent downfield blocker which could be a factor in the coming years) don’t come by often, and it ultimately wouldn't be a shock if he's the lead guy in the Patriots running back room before long. Henderson is the exact type of dynamic playmaker every team in the league would kill for, and someone who some (not all) in draft circles thought could've gone round one. Nevertheless, the Patriots were wise to nab him at 38th overall.

No. 4 overall pick, Will Campbell, will ultimately be under the microscope a bit more between the two OL rookies, but Jared Wilson, widely viewed as the consensus top center prospect in this year's draft cycle (was my No. 75 prospect total), might be the guy I'm more interested in seeing at the start of the season. The Georgia product has been getting run at left guard over the last month, and after a brief stint starting in that final preseason game in New York for all of nine snaps, I think it's fair to say he's your likely starter there, with ex-Viking Garrett Bradbury handling center.

Back to Campbell now, my worry isn’t anything inherently on him, but rather that some fans could fall into the trap that he’s going to be an All-Pro caliber guy from the jump, then turn on him if things go south, which they did in joint practices with the Vikings some weeks ago. Believe me, it’d be awesome if he were, but there’s going to be some bad outings this year. Sticking with some of the top guys of last year's class, Joe Alt, JC Latham, and Taliese Fuaga gave up 19 sacks combined a year ago, and all had some issues with letting up pressure. It’s not going to be perfect for Campbell, and that’s absolutely fine. Have to take the good with the bad at this stage of his development; However, I liked what I saw out of the LSU product in his preseason game reps; not as much as the folks over at PFF did, but I thought he looked the part, and think those joint practices against the Vikings superhuman pass rush group was great for him early development.

Elsewhere, Kyle Williams has the route running and release ability off the line that pops off the screen, but I do question where he sits on the totem poll going into Week 1. Presumably, Diggs, Douglas, and Hollins are your likely top unit in three receiver looks at Z, Slot, and X, respectively, but his ability to specifically beat press off the line and get open is already fantastic, and it wouldn’t stun me if he ends up becoming the top X option this year at some point, even with the lack of size compared to Hollins. It’s been an up-and-down camp for him, and this wouldn’t be the first time I’d get burned on a promising Patriots WR prospect, but Williams absolutely has the tools to be a factor in this league. So does UDFA pick up Efton Chism, for that matter, who's turned himself into a folk hero after that monster second quarter vs. the Vikings.

Updated Defense

The year-plus wait to go all in on big ticket signings was painful, but ultimately worth it on paper, as the Patriots added three new core defenders in the form of recent Super Bowl Champion Milton Williams of the Eagles, ex-Super Bowl winner with the Bucs Carlton Davis, and then linebacker Robert Spillane, who most recently was with the Raiders. Especially after letting go of Ja’Whaun Bentley, having a guy like Spillane, who’s become an every-down backer in his two-year stint with the Raiders, and more importantly, one of the NFL’s top run defenders and outright tacklers at the position as well, is nothing short of gigantic. There were more than a few games last year where the Patriots were thoroughly dominated on the ground, and he should hopefully be a part of the reason why that won't bleed over into 2025. Pass defense could be a bit of an adventure at times, but this is a guy you’d want on your team just about every time from an on and off-field standpoint.

Cornerback Carlton Davis, although a logical fit given his more recent ties to DC Terrell Williams, wasn’t someone I was expecting the Patriots to target on the open market, especially with some other excellent options like DJ Reed and Charvarius Ward available as well. Sadly, we haven’t seen him a ton in the lead-up to the regular season as he’s been dealing with an undisclosed injury, but luckily, he says he’s good for Week 1. That all said, Davis has the ideal frame and wingspan you’d want in a top corner, similar to Christian Gonzalez, and he was the top corner on a Super Bowl winner in 2020 and some other excellent teams the last few years (Bucs in 2021, Lions in 2024). So good in fact, that Ja’Marr Chase went on the record a few years ago and went into detail about why Davis was the best corner he’s ever faced.

The big ticket move of this offseason, league-wide, Milton Williams, comes to New England, never playing above 47% of his team’s defensive snaps before, but despite that, he is as disruptive an interior defender in the NFL. Williams’ 12.5% pressure rate trailed only John Franklin Meyers for the best in the league last year (by 0.1%) among players with 200 pass rush snaps, and additionally, was the only interior defender last postseason with multiple sacks, double-digit pressures, and a pressure rate north of 10 percent. He’s going to create such a different dynamic upfront with Christian Barmore than what the Patriots have had in years past, very much worth the $26 million per year he’s now getting.

It's also worth mentioning the front change this year, with a switch to 4-3 over the 3-4 which had been gospel in New England for years, but if these preseason games are any indication, the five defensive back looks that have played a big part in Patriots defenses of the last several years won’t be going anywhere, which given their unit as a whole is a net positive. I'm very excited to see Terrell Williams orchestrate this unit with the level of talent they have at all levels.

What Does a Successful Year Two for Drake Maye Look Like?

The rookie year for former No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye delivered a ton of promise amid a ton of chaos around him, both with his supporting cast and, as we would find out later, coaching. Arm talent, ability to create outside of the pocket, both as a passer and a runner, all stood out. Not without faults or pitfalls, however, as he ended the year with 10 INTs and 2 lost fumbles across his 13 games, and although not all on him by any means, the good he did wasn’t enough to affect the win column much.

It hasn’t been a 100% picture-perfect summer for Maye in year two, but the positives have been aplenty, and that week of joint practices against a Brian Flores-led Vikings defense, and everything that entails, was about the best thing that could’ve happened to him. His new OC, Josh McDaniels, would largely say the same on a TV spot during the Vikings' preseason tilt.

“I was really excited about the way [Maye] handled those practices this week,” McDaniels said. “Practice by nature is always difficult because you put yourself in a scenario where you run the same thing over and over again. That’s not really how a football game goes. There were a lot of long yardage situations that he had to handle. A lot of 2-minute drills. A lot of difficult low-red zone situations that he was a part of. I think we saw a lot of growth from him.

He did a great job taking care of the football, had great poise. And there’s not going to be a more difficult defense to have to deal with before the ball is snapped – and then combine that with how good they are after the ball is snapped. Really excited about where he’s going, where he’s headed. I love the way he works. Love the way he approaches every day. Patriot Nation should be excited, too.”

Ultimately, what does a “successful” year for Maye look like in 2025? Firstly, just being better at protecting the ball. It’s not unfair to say that some of the picks he threw last year were by no means his fault (some of them were not on him to such an egregious degree), but he also got away with some poor decisions as well. We saw some of that against the Vikings, where he sailed a couple of passes up high for no real reason that easily could’ve been picks, and then a case of a terrible turnover off of a fumble vs. the Commanders a week prior, that Mike Vrabel called him out for right away.

Something else that ties into that to a degree is being smarter as a runner. Not that he was completely reckless, but there were absolutely plays where he would’ve been far better off just sliding. I didn’t remember this specific example at all until I watched it back recently, but there was a play vs. Chicago where he scrambled for around 20 yards, and decided to lean into linebacker TJ Edwards on the way down. Preferably, don’t do this ever again.

Another area I would hope to see him get better at, although it wasn't a pressing issue, is processing defenses; another reason why getting those joint practices in with the Vikings and Brian Flores specifically was so huge. We actually found out even earlier, via an interview with Kay Adams, that Maye had been taking in a lot out of watching Tom Brady, and specifically his ability to know where to go with the ball and how he just saw things pre-snap; the single best option to get better in that regard. If Maye takes steps in these areas, I imagine we’re looking back on his 2025 fondly. He has just about everything else you could want out of a year two QB, and has a better supporting cast to boot; now it’s just a matter of natural progression.

The Bottom Line

The phrase, "taking advantage of bad football," was something everyone gravitated towards in Vrabel's opening presser, and simply looking at the Patriots' schedule, those opportunities should be there. All before we even touch November, they draw the new look Raiders, then the Saints, Titans, and Browns. Beyond that, there are still three combined games against the New York teams, both of which have some question marks, and who knows what Miami looks like by the time we get to Week 18.

Should you be going into this season with the immediate expectation of playoffs or bust in Vrabel's first year here? That would be a stretch, but not super far off either. This is a team that has clearly upgraded its talent and coaching infrastructure to the point that, in an AFC that has some question marks outside of your usual suspects, I would say a fair expectation is that they are "in the hunt" in those final two or three weeks of the regular season, with teams potentially like the Bengals and Chargers.

There's going to be some so-so outings this year, and they play some good teams this year, like the Bucs, Bills (x2), and Ravens, but again, they have PLENTY of chances to take advantage of bad football this year. Drake Maye should be expected to make that necessary leap with some added talent on that side of the ball, and you added some real-deal defenders to a unit that already boasted some elite talent to begin with, such as Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore, and Jabrill Peppers.

Defined Patriots Strengths

- Minimum of one impact defender at every level; several up front and in the secondary.

- 4-3 defensive front fits the current crop of personnel better.

- Optimism with Drake Maye coming off a promising rookie campaign.

- High-Upside running back room.

- Left tackle improvement over the last couple of seasons.

Defined Patriots Weaknesses

- Unclear how good the offensive line on the whole will end up being, even with improvements.

- Red Zone Offense, assuming issues for both McDaniels and the Patriots in recent years (sans 2023) carry over.

- What does linebacker look like behind Robert Spillane?

- Depth at cornerback was tested very early in August with injuries to top starters.

Record Ceiling: 11-6

Record Floor: 7-10

AFC East Finishing Position Prediction: 2nd

Team MVP: Christian Gonzalez

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