What Do the Patriots Need to Do to Stop Bryce Young and the Panthers from Sending Them to 1-3?

In the last two seasons of Patriots football, Week 4 has effectively served as the "It's over" moment for the team. In 2023, it was a blowout loss in Dallas to go to 1-3, in which both Christian Gonzalez and Matt Judon suffered season-ending injuries, and last year, a blowout loss in Santa Clara to the 49ers to go to 1-3, in which David Andrews sustained a season-ending injury, which led to his retirement. Some of the worst Patriot losses of my lifetime that told an entire story in those 60 separate minutes alone.

2025's Week 4 opponent isn't as high-caliber as those 49ers or Cowboys teams were (at least for those individual weeks), but they're scrappy enough to give most teams problems: the Carolina Panthers. Through three weeks, they've had six terrible quarters of football, followed by six good quarters of football. The most recent half dozen includes a near-monumental comeback against the Cardinals after a brutal first half, and then last week, a 30-0 rout of division rival Atlanta Falcons.

Unfortunately for Carolina, they've been hit with the injury bug badly in these first few weeks of the year. Starting right guard and center Robert Hunt and Austin Cobert are out for the year and two months, respectively. Tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders is currently week-to-week with an ankle issue, and both starting edge rushers, D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones, are also confirmed out.

Not exactly ideal for the opposition, but we saw a Steelers team less than 100% come into Foxborough and win a matter of days ago. Luckily, the Patriots appear poised to get Christian Gonzalez on the field for the first time this year, which is significant in that much of the Panthers' offense has run through rookie wide receiver Tet McMillan. In any case, here's what you need to know about Carolina vs. New England.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, September 28th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: FOX (Chris Myers and Mark Schlereth on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All Blue

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Panthers: D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones (EDGE), Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE), and Xavier Legette (WR)

Patriots: Jared Wilson

Carolina Panthers

Defense

When you think of this Panthers defense, there are four names you should immediately gravitate towards: Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Tre'Von Moehrig. If Brown isn't in that top five group of the best IDL in the league, he's almost certainly in that second tier. Now, Brown isn't a stat sheet stuffer by most counts, just two pressures, no sacks, and nine tackles through three games, but I want you to watch what he did last week on a run play, ragdolling the fighting pride of Dudley, Mass, and multi-time Second-Team All-Pro guard Chris Lindstrom.

Yeah, horrifying strength. Additionally, it's not ideal, given that the Patriots had a significant challenge last weekend with Cam Heyward, and Brown is a player who will move around a lot across the defensive front, so it may not just be the interior linemen who struggle with him. Needless to say, he should be getting doubled on every snap by default, and judging by how Josh McDaniels talked him up on Thursday, I think that'll be the plan.

The big trouble spot for Carolina will be if both of their starting edge rushers, Patrick Jones and D.J. Wonnum, are inactive come Sunday, with Wonnum being the bigger loss if so. That would line up bigger roles for rookies Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen for the second week in a row. Both guys racked up a pair of pressures on at least 25 pass rush snaps, but Umanmielen wasn't out there as much on run downs, so do with that what you will.

Finally, to the secondary, the Panthers boast a secondary featuring one of the top 10 cornerbacks in the league, the aforementioned Jaycee Horn, his running mate and former Patriot Mike Jackson, and Swiss Army Knife Tre'Von Moehrig. Starting with the CBs, this duo has a case for being one of the best, if not the best, corner duos in the league through the first handful of games. Horn is obviously the key guy, but Jackson has been phenomenal in a three-game sample. His only real chunk play give-up was in prevent at the end of the first half in Week 1; otherwise, he's been tremendous to start out his seventh year.

More so than those two, Moehrig is going to be someone everyone on offense will have to account for at all times. The Panthers can and absolutely will be liberal with how they line him up, from deep to in the box, slot, and even off the edge. I don't think I need to go into detail about how having a player with Moehrig's skillset and range helps the entire unit, since the Patriots had a similar player in recent years in Jabrill Peppers. However, I'll leave these comments from Umanmielen from earlier this week here.

Just a few more notes on this Panthers defense, they haven't blitzed much, if at all (9th-worst blitz rate in the league), but I wouldn't be stunned if they try to crank up the heat this week to find a spark upfront, and they definitely have the cover guys to make up for any chances they take. Secondly, Carolina has practically lived in Cover-3 so far this year at a 45% clip, second in the league behind only the Raiders. Lastly, this Panthers team boasts the worst run stuff rate in the league at just 9.4%, and is one of seven teams allowing at least five yards per carry in 2025.

Offense

Bryce Young's resurgence at the tail end of 2024 hasn't carried over into this season yet, with just one game of over 200 yards. He currently sits in the bottom six of both EPA stats and is one of 12 QBs with at least three interceptions. As a notable enough Bryce Young truther, it's mostly been tough sledding this year, and it won't get easier this week with two OL starters on the shelf long term, his top tight end and second leading receiver, Ja'Tavion Sanders, out, plus Xavier Legette.

That will put a lot of the pressure to produce offensively on first-round pick Tet McMillian, who's had a pretty good start to his NFL career, but was a bit off vs. Atlanta with a couple of drops and a really bad rep vs. press man on a 3rd-and-7 in the first quarter. As someone who wasn't as high on him as others were back in draft season, I think Tet was not particularly dynamic off the line against press coverage, but if he's given space, he can and will produce at a high clip after the catch, and he has great hands more often than not. At 6'4 with his athletic profile and skillset, he can give any offense fits on any given Sunday. Currently dealing with a calf injury, however (listed as questionable for Sunday), his absence would be catastrophic should he not suit up in Foxborough. Same deal for running back Chuba Hubbard, who's also questionable for this weekend, but hasn't had a particularly strong start to the year either.

New England Patriots

Defense

On Friday, we got an unfortunate update on Patriots DC Terrell Williams from Mike Vrabel, in that his stay away from the team will be indefinite as he deals with a battle with Prostate Cancer. Soon after that announcement, we saw an outpouring of kind words and well-wishes from local and national media, as well as from some from his prior stops, such as Detroit and Tennessee. As always, fuck cancer, and we're hoping for the best with Williams and his family.

Now, onto this defense, which wasn't as productive on the pass rush front last week, but better in coverage, it for sure sounds like Christian Gonzalez is back now, and that'll make things better on both of those fronts, assuming Carlton Davis can stabilize out and keep up some of the higher end play he's had in spurts this year. But as far as the pass rush goes, I think the injuries up the middle are going to play huge into the hands of Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, who were a heartbeat away from signing with these Carolina Panthers back in March, but right tackle Taylor Moton is as good a right tackle as you'll find in the NFL. Ickey Ekwonu, on the other hand, is exploitable, and I'm interested to see if they try to mix things up and get him on an island with Harold Landry in obvious third-down passing situations, or if they stay the course with Landry on the right side. Lastly, please keep Jack Gibbens as your second linebacker instead of Christian Elliss.

Offense

Cover-3 heavy defenses have gotten the better of the Patriots twice now this season, but I'd chalk both of those losses up to reasons outside of the opposition's defensive scheme. In Week 1, it was the Raiders' ability to take away the run game that really stymied the offense, and then the turnovers last week against Pittsburgh. The challenge the Panthers present is in the fact that Derrick Brown is borderline All-World, and they have some elite secondary pieces. Not helping things is that Jared Wilson is out for the week, with Ben Brown set to fill in at left guard.

Ultimately, Drake Maye has been able to make throws vs. these defenses; it's just been a matter of mistakes and miscues. The problem this week is that you're playing the best set of corners you have faced all season so far. Even if the Panthers' pass rush woes persist, it's going to be up to these receivers to step up, and I'm looking speciffically at Pop Douglas after last week. All week, there's been chatter about Efton Chism being activated for game days going forward if things continue, and he can shut all that down if he can put together a good afternoon. I'd also like to see some more designed looks to get Kayshon Boutte back involved. He's seen just four targets over these last two weeks after a big performance back in Week 1.

As for the Patriots' run game, regardless of who's leading the charge, they let a bad run defense off the hook big time last weekend, and cannot make that two-for-two. Even with Derrick Brown up the middle, Carolina has been a bad run-defending team in their first three games. The line is probably the most important factor here in getting holes opened up in the A and B gaps, but beyond the fumble issues of last week, there's got to be some level of explosiveness out of the run game, not just this week, but going forward.

Betting Info

Points Spread: CAR +5.5 (-112) | NE -5.5 (-108)

Moneyline: CAR (+205) | NE (-250)

Over/Under: O 42.5 (-115) | U 42.5 (-105)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, September 26th. Always Bet Responsibly.

The key numbers here are 4-6 and 2-8. Those are the Carolina Panthers' records against the spread and then outright as a road underdog under Dave Canales. Also caught a pair of these nuggets from the action network, but Bryce Young is also 0-9 outright on the road vs. non-NFC South teams, but covered in three of those losses. Gut here would be Patriots both ways and the under.

Prediction

I'm going to go with the same logic that led me to pick the Patriots last week, and I'm hoping I won't get burned again. Lots of key pieces for this Carolina squad are out, and the Patriots dropping their first three home games of the year before making the trip out to Buffalo would be nothing short of catastrophic. Short of any sort of catastrophic injury, they have no excuses this week.

Final Score: New England Patriots 24, Carolina Panthers 13

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