The Playoffs Are Here: Can the Patriots Send the Chargers Packing on Sunday Night?

After three seasons meandering under .500, and even further south in the last two, the New England Patriots are 48 hours away from hosting their first playoff game in over five years. This season has already exceeded nearly all expectations from spring/summer, but let's be real: this is still a Boston sports team, and this is when and where things will determine how this year will be remembered.

The opponent this week? The 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who did lose two straight games to end the regular season, but ended up resting key starters last weekend in Denver. Like most seasons in recent Chargers history, injuries have been a major storyline in 2025, with the offensive line suffering catastrophic losses and rolling out a whopping 25 different line combinations. They've long been without starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and the results of that have been historically bad; even worse than what the Patriots were dealing with last year, to put it into context. Not exactly an easy year to be Justin Herbert, with that being said. Beyond that, here's what you need to know about the opposition this weekend in a win-or-go-home tilt.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, January 11th

Start Time: 8:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: NBC/Peacock (Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Silver Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Chargers: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Kickoff Returner), Kendall Williamson (SAF)

Patriots: Khyiris Tonga

Los Angeles Chargers

Defense

LA's best chance at an upset win will come down to wheter or not their defense can limit damage and create turnovers, and luckily for them, they've been great at both this year. Jesse Minter's unit is one of nine to generate at least 23 turnovers in the regular season, 19 of which were interceptions. This is a defense and coordinator who thrives on disguising looks and has the luxury of some elite pass-rush options up front, which has led to them being one of the least blitz-heavy teams in football.

We saw the Ravens make things difficult for Drake Maye by disguising looks at the line, so it should be expected that LA will do the same, as they've done to nearly everyone else all year. We're talking lots of zone, mixing around Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone looks, lots of two-deep safeties, things of that nature. Derwin James would be the first name to bring up as far as coverage goes, but LA has done with him what Baltimore has done with Kyle Hamilton: bringing him down towards the line as a pseudo-linebacker. That's as dangerous as anything the Patriots will have to deal with on Sunday, but their top corner Donte Jackson has been dealing with an ankle injury all week, so there's something to keep in mind.

The real issue this Chargers defense presents is with their front seven. They have multiple pass rushers who can get hot at any time and create significant problems, and that starts with Tuli Tuipulotu. In a year when he doubled his career sack total with 13, he was one of the most disruptive edge rushers in football against the pass and run, and he's a guy with great power and bull-rush ability, and he's done great this year working inside, either naturally or on stunts/games. Probably going to see him primarily on Will Campbell, but they do move him around on the line.

That's not even getting into Khalil Mack, who's still kicking around and capable of being productive, or mid-season trade acquisition Odafe Oweh, who put up his entire sack total (7.5) after being traded from the Ravens. Fair to say Minter has some options and can get creative on the edges, but keep an eye out for IDL Justin Eboigbe as well: a second-year player out of Alabama who put up six sacks on the year.

The last note I'll bring up is that while Jesse Minter hasn't been a big blitz guy this year, he did call them at over a 50% clip last weekend in Denver with most of his starters out. If things end up going south for them and they want to create a spark, I'd absolutely expect him to break out some Cover-0 blitz looks. They were running C-0 looks very frequently after the bye as is, but if Drake Maye can settle in and adjust pre- and post-snap to some of the disguise looks Minter will throw at him, LA will have to get creative.

Offense

If you want to know how the Chargers made it to the postseason with a historically bad offensive line, the simple answer would be Justin Herbert. He's a quarterback who seemingly everyone has a strong opinion about, and I lean toward the view that he's pretty good. No playoff wins to his name yet certainly doesn't help his case, but given just how bad things were in front of him this year, and they were only a couple of games away from winning the AFC West, it is objectively impressive. The issue that'll be plaguing him for as many games as he'll have left is that he's still dealing with a broken left hand (non-throwing) that surprisingly didn't force him to miss a game until Week 18. Depending on how cold it gets on Sunday night, that may play a role in how Herbert feels, given some comments he made after a game last month at Arrowhead Stadium.

We talked at the top about the Chargers' historically bad offensive line, and this is a unit that got Herbert pressured more than any QB in football this year (by a lot) and sacked more than all but two, despite resting last weekend. Some good news is that second-string left tackle Jamaree Salyer is expected to be back in the lineup, but the rest of this line leaves a lot to be desired, and speciffically on the interior. Mekhi Becton, who won a Super Bowl last year in Philly, has been nowhere close to his form of a year ago at right guard, Bradley Bozeman at center, and Trey Pipkins at right tackle are the three "weak points."

On the whole, though, this is a universally recognized bottom-tier run-blocking offensive line, and realistically, they won't be getting Omarion Hampton operating at 100 percent if he plays this week. The rookie back out of UNC missed about half the season with an ankle injury he's still dealing with the effects of, but unfortunately for him, he's suffered a ton from some bad run blocking all year. Despite his ability to make people miss, he was contacted behind the line on over 50% of his touches this year per NextGenStats. He'd be a big loss regardless, and if Hampton is indeed out on Sunday, it's going to come down to Kimani Vidal in the running game, who's put up 643 yards this year on 155 carries.

Now, fittingly, we end things with the pass-catching group of the Chargers, who had no 1000-yard pass catcher, but four players crossed 600 yards, three of which went over 700. By targets and catches, Keenan Allen has become Herbert's go-to target this year over Ladd McConkey, but Quentin Johnston and then rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden II also factor into things pretty heavily. Just know that Allen has been the most productive third-down wideout in football this year in terms of catches (33) and first downs gained (29). Expect Herbert to look for 13 anytime they get into those spots.

New England Patriots

Defense

No Khyiris Tonga is definitely going to sting, but getting Robert Spillane back for the first time since the bye week is just as gigantic. Before they held the Dolphins to 63 rushing yards last weekend, they allowed (well) north of 100 yards per game against the Bills, Ravens, and Jets with Spillane out of the lineup, and especially based on the Bills and Ravens games, they absolutely needed him back for this stretch more than just about any other player. Can't have enough sure tacklers at the second level, and he's unequivocally been the Patriots' best all year. Feels good knowing this is the first time the Patriots will have both Spillane and Milton Williams in the lineup together since the Jets' Thursday Night Game.

While New England been pretty good with tight ends since the Bucs game, where Cade Otton went for 82 yards on nine grabs, the biggest thing Patriots fans should be concerned about is if Justin Herbert and OC Greg Roman make it a point to force things with Oronde Gadsden early, given some of the more notable tight ends that've given them trouble this year (Brock Bowers, Dalton Kincaid, Harold Fannin Jr.). Wouldn't be shocked if they like a potential Gadsden-Craig Woodson matchup if they want to do with Gadsden what they were doing with the Ravens tight ends several weeks back, more so Mark Andrews.

Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have been some of the NFL's most productive interior pass rushers in terms of pressure rate (with Cory Durden in that mix as well), and there's really no excuse for them not to overwhelm things straight up the gut this Sunday. Just based on Mehki Becton's play this year, that feels like a really good matchup for the Patriots if they can get it in isolation for a handful of snaps. Realistically, though, the Chargers have run 13 personnel at a 62 percent clip this year, and 21 at a 29.5 percent clip. Can't double Williams and Barmore, and if you can get a few really good reps out of either/both of Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson, it could be a miserable night in the pocket for Justin Herbert.

Offense

While Drake Maye's ability to decipher some of the disguised coverage looks Jesse Minter will throw at him will loom large, akin to the Ravens in Week 16, the bigger stress point playing this game definitively on your own terms. By that, I mean make the Chargers pay for running light boxes, run it out of jumbo, and force them to adjust out of what's worked for them all year. Hard not to draw at least some parallels from how Sony Michel got hot at the end of the 2018 regular season, as Rhamondre Stevenson has these last few weekends, and TreVeyon Henderson is always capable of hitting the second level and then some.

Hunter Henry being ocupied with Derwin James will almsot certainly hamper his impact in this game, and especially with Mack Hollins return still weeks away (if it happens at all), it's paramount that you can get a guy some plays out of Kayshon Boutte and Pop Douglas in the pass game. Neither have been huge emphasised guys on that side of the ball the deeper we get into the year, but if the Chargers can replicate what the Bills did in Week 15 by erasing Stefon Diggs and Henry, it's absolutely going to fall on them, as well as Ryan Williams.

Prediction

I can't subscribe to the theory that the Chargers are the singular best defense the Patriots have faced all year, but they're certainly in that group, and they present some things none of those teams offer in some areas. That said, this is still a West Coast dome team with a comically makeshift offensive line coming to Foxborough in January. Additionally, despite finishing as a top-10 run defense, the Chargers can be taken advantage of if Josh McDaniels makes a point to establish things with jumbo personnel right out of the gate. It won't be easy, and they may have to sweat it out deep into the fourth quarter thanks to the defense and Herbert, but the Patriots should win this game.

Final Score: New England Patriots 27, Los Angeles Chargers 17

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