The Patriots Make Their Final-Ever Trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium Under the Lights vs. Josh Allen and the Bills

2025 has been shaky when it comes to the traditional power players of this decade in the AFC, but the Buffalo Bills have largely stayed the course and, as such, find themselves 4-0 in the early portion of the season. Has it been Scott-free the entire way? Not nessicarilly. They looked sluggish on both sides of the ball for most of their outings against a pair of mediocre Dolphins and Saints squads, but also trounced the Jets and completed a herculean fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens. In short, it hasn't been pretty, but they've largely been able to make key plays, and their key guys, more so offensively, have answered the bell against a subpar slate of opponents.

This is not to say the Bills are some ultra-vulnerable opponent this week. They statistically sit as the top outright offense in the AFC through four games, the best run offense in the entire league, and have Josh Allen on an early MVP pace once again, playing in front of one of the better offensive lines the league has to offer, scoring at least 30 in each game so far. Defense is a different story, but this is a tough team to beat on any given Sunday/Thursday/Monday/etc.

In no uncertain terms, this is a gigantic opportunity for the Patriots this weekend. Coming off a pick-me-up win over the Panthers, an upset in their final ever trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium would undoubtedly be their most significant victory in these post-Tom Brady years. Could that actually be in the cards?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, October 5th

Start Time: 8:20 EST

Location: Orchard Park, New York

Stadium: Highmark Stadium

TV Info: NBC (Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All Blue (Bills are debuting their Rivalries "Cold Front" Uniforms)

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Bills: Dorian Williams (LB), Dorian Strong (CB)

Patriots: K'Lavon Chaisson

Buffalo Bills

Defense

The numbers suggest that the Bills boast the NFL's top pass defense currently, but I wouldn't call that an entirely accurate description of what they are. While a good unit, corners Christian Benford and Tre'Davious White have looked rough for most of the year so far, and the latter will be back in the starting lineup this week after he was benched for Dorian Strong in Week 4, who'll be inactive with a neck issue on Sunday. White's shortcomings at this stage of his career can be summed up by saying he's old, but Benford was an absolute rock for these Bills last year, and you'd never know it watching him right now. He was really bad in that Ravens game, and has given up a pair of touchdowns from inside the five-yard line, bringing his total to four allowed touchdowns in four games. Not exactly ideal. Lastly, expect a lot of zone once again on the coverage front.

The good news is that they'll have ex-All-Pro 'backer Matt Milano back in the lineup by the sounds of it, and the same goes for IDL Ed Oliver, who, if you recall, was dynamite in the Bills ' season-opening win over the Ravens. Additionally, he's made it clear to Bills fans that his ankle issue WAS NOT, repeat, WAS NOT, the result of a horse-related accident, which, yes, was a rumor.

The one true consistency among these 2020s Bills squads is their inability to defend the run, and that remains the case in 2025. Buffalo is the only team in the AFC allowing at least six yards per carry and has let up the most chunk runs (10+ yards) with 26, seven of which came last weekend vs. the Saints. Can't say I'd trust the Patriots' run offense like my life depends on it in general, but even with Milano and Oliver in for that first game, they had no answers for Derrick Henry (until the final five minutes of the game, of course). I can't imagine the Patriots finding a ton of success up the A-gaps, but they should have some chances from the B-gap and out.

The one key note I have about the Bills' pass rush is that Joey Bosa currently outright leads the NFL with four forced fumbles on the year, but not a single one of those was recovered by Buffalo. Also interestingly enough, he's way closer to a 50/50 split in terms of what side of the field he's lining up on, but the vast majority of his success on pass down would be on the defensive left side (offensive right), with both of his sacks and 13-of-15 pressures there. Expect to see a decent amount of AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau off the edge, the latter of whom I'm a big fan of. Also, Oliver and Daquan Jones will be up the middle. Not a group that's top 10 in any real pass rush category, but a sure and steady group of vets.

Lastly, a big shoutout to Gaffney Scouting Legend Deone Walker, who's had a very good start to his rookie campaign as a rotational piece up the middle.

Offense

I don't know what I can really add to the discourse about Josh Allen in 2025 at this point. He's great, his protection is great, and he's getting a ton of run game support from James Cook, who's dishing out chunk runs like it's life or death this year. He has 10 chunk runs this year, and forcing guys to miss is a common theme in all but two of those. Even when it's not chunk plays, he's been exceptionally keeping Buffalo on schedule with down and distance. No real surprise he's second in the league for rushing yards with that in mind, but I'm excited to see how he does vs. the Patriots' run defense.

As for the Bills' offensive line, the key guy for them this year isn't exactly a household name, but has been playing at an incredible high level so far in a contract year, and that's right guard David Edwards. Film and analytics people (PFF) like him all the same so far, and it's not hard to see why at all. Road grater in the run game and PFF's pass blocking metrics place him comfortably as a top 10 outright IOL in the league on that front. They're good across the board with him, and then Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown at the tackle spots, especially, but Edwards is a great story to monitor for the Bills the rest of the way.

While I'm not too concerned about the Patriots' corners vs. the Bills' wide receivers this Sunday, I do worry a bit about them covering a guy like Dalton Kincaid, who's already well on pace for a career season, already hitting a career high for TDs with three. For whatever reason, the Bills and OC Joe Brady didn't get him involved much last week, only running 15 routes and making one grab, which, in fairness, was a 28-yard dagger touchdown, but indeed odd given his productivity in the Bills' first three wins. I can't imagine he'll be out of the game plan two weeks in a row, but that's certainly worth monitoring.

New England Patriots

Defense

Priority number one for this unit, and one that the team internally acknowledges is a significant problem by now, is achieving faster starts. Obviously, easier said than done this week of most weeks on the Patriots' schedule this year, but putting up zero resistance on these opening defensive series, allowing your opponent to get free-of-charge momentum right away, is just flirting with disaster. If there's anything you could take from last year's only real matchup between these two teams, the Patriots did get an early defensive stop, with another forced punt and interception as well, with a James Cook long TD run mixed in, so I wouldn't call it impossible for them to keep points off the board early on Sunday.

The Bills' O-Line vs. Patriots D-Line matchup is appropriate for prime time, but outside of the Patriots' woes with tight ends likely coming into play here vs. Kincaid, I think this unit matches up great with the other skill guys the Bills have to offer. After last week, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots feel good enough about Carlton Davis to keep him on another bigger wideout in Keon Coleman, and allow Christian Gonzalez to travel with Khalil Shakir when the Bills want to roll with their two-receiver sets (they've been big on 22, 13, and 21 personnel so far this year). Not that they won't make plays, but I genuinely think those are very favorable matchups for the Patriots, and key ones at that. The same goes for the linebackers, Gibbens and Bob Spillane vs. James Cook if/when he hits the second level.

Offense

Even with the Bills' run defense being what it has been for the last five years, I have my doubts that the Patriots will be able to take advantage of them up front, mainly because they couldn't against another bad run-defending team, the Steelers, all of two weeks ago. Additionally, what worries me is that, according to NextGenStats, the Bills, despite their run game faults, have gotten to backs behind the line of scrimmage on nearly 47% of their runs, which is the fourth most in the league. I hope this is the game TreVeyon Henderson can get it going, because his ability to get outside the tackles could be huge in getting the ground game going. No one has had it run outside on them more than Buffalo, and the more you can avoid Ed Oliver in the A/B-gaps, the better.

Especially when you factor in he's going to have some favorable matchups and just the situation he's in this week, this is a gigantic game for one Stefon Diggs. His first tilt in Buffalo since the Bills' Divisional round loss to Kansas City in the 2023 season, and it does not sound like he's going to be getting a warm reception by any stretch. He's gotten better and more involved with every game he's played so far, and while I hope they don't force-feed him solely because it's a homecoming affair, he's primed for another big game with two corners not playing particularly great. As long as the protection for Drake Maye can hold, I'm not worried about his productivity this week, but him being smart with the ball, especially with a guy like Joey Bosa off the edge with a knack for forcing fumbles, has to be his top priority. I'm not overly concerned about him having to decipher some of the disguised zone looks the Bills like to run out of.

Also, some nice news for this week, in that Jared Wilson will be back in the lineup as the starting left guard.

Betting Info

Points Spread: BUF -8.5 (-105) | NE +8.5 (-115)

Moneyline: BUF (-425) | NE (+330)

Over/Under: O 49.5 (-115) | U 49.5 (-105)

Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, October 4th. Always Bet Responsibly.

I was shocked to find out this information, but since the beginning of the 2023 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills are 11-10 against the spread when they are favored at home, but 19-2 outright. So far as home favorites this year, they're 0-2 ATS but 2-0 outright, and with that in mind, if you want to lay anything here, I'd go Bills outright, Patriots ATS, and the over.

Prediction

A very weird feeling knowing this is the final ever primetime game slated for Ralph Wilson Stadium, barring any late-season schedule adjustments. Very fun game to go out on if so, and one that I think goes down to the end. My worry though is the Patriots defense may take a drive or two too long to really settle in, and that'll bite them in the end. A Patriots win wouldn't stun me by any means, but give me the Bills, just barely here.

Final Score: Buffalo Bills 28, New England Patriots 24

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