The Patriots Host Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns Hoping for a Fifth Straight Win

The topic of defending home court has been a focus for Patriots players during this week's media availability, and for good reason. Despite sitting at a 5-2 record with a perfect road record, New England is once again struggling to find that level of success at Gillette Stadium —and, even more than that, touts the NFL's worst home game record since 2023, at 4-15. Their opponent this weekend, the Cleveland Browns, who've yet to win on the road this year and are 4-17 on the road since 2023 (second-worst in the NFL behind Carolina), presents some unique challenges. A top-flight defense headed up by Jim Schwartz is as good, perhaps better than any unit the Patriots draw on the 2025 docket, but their offense has been among the NFL's worst this year, with or without the now-traded Joe Flacco.

But for all the Browns' faults, especially away from home (on U.S. soil), they did stonewall a pretty good Packers offense a handful of weeks ago in an upset win, and have some guys on offense who can keep anyone honest. Here's what they bring to the table, and we ask the question: Will this be consecutive win No. 5 for the Patriots?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, October 26th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: FOX (Chris Myers and Mark Schlereth on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Silver Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Browns: N/A

Patriots: N/A

Cleveland Browns

Defense

The Patriots are probably playing the two best defenses they will all year these next two weeks, and when you see some of the names Cleveland has these days, it's not hard to see why. Of course, there's still Myles Garrett, who's still the best EDGE in the NFL, but you also have some real deal guys like Denzel Ward, Grant Delpit, rookie linebacker Carson Schwesinger, rookie IDL Mason Graham, and the recently acquired Tyson Campbell, who picked up a pick-6 vs. the Dolphins last week. Tons of talent for a guy like DC Jim Schwartz to create a ton of problems for opposing offenses, and so far, it's been a return to form for that 2023 defense after a very odd fall-off year in 2024.

The real story on the personnel side of things, however, would be their top interior defender, Maliek Collins, who's in the middle of the ever classic "career year at 30 years old/10th year in the NFL" breakout. He's on pace to hit career highs in sacks, pressures, pressure rate, etc, as of right now, and his 3.5 sacks trail just Jeffery Simmons, Byron Murphy II, and Justin Eboigbe for the league lead among IDL. His ability to get off the ball and get in the backfield might be as essential to stopping as Garrett will be, and that's saying a lot.

The big trend shift from the opening portion of the season, as well, is that the Browns are one of the handful of teams the Patriots draw between now and December that either run a man-heavy-man-heavy coverage unit or run man looks at a higher-than-average clip compared to the rest of the league. It could be a tough afternoon through the air with Ward being Ward, and if Tyson Campbell plays like he did last weekend vs. Miami, not two weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh, when he got beat for three 20-plus-yard gains by DK Metcalf.

It would also be worth noting that the Browns rank No. 4 in the NFL in yardage allowed per game at 82.4, and No. 1 in EPA per rush at -0.26. Pittsburgh found a way to break off five chunk runs on them a few weeks ago, but they also have the luxury of having Darnell Washington to moonlight as a sixth OL on some of those run plays, which the Patriots don't. Needless to say, this may be a challenging day offensively for New England.

Offense

With Joe Flacco out of the picture in Cleveland, it's been the Dillon Gabriel show the last few weeks, the reviews of which have been...well...starts by an NFL QB. To his credit, he hasn't turned the ball over once in three starts, but he's predictably struggled a bit against pressure with some lack of continuity with the tackles (He'll have both starters, Cam Robinson and Jack Conklin back togther this weekend after the latter was out with a concussion a week ago), and they havent been able to get anything really going with the deep ball or with play action to this point.

Also not helping the cause for Gabriel or the team in general before he got the starting nod are drops. After TNF, only the Jaguars and Chargers have dropped more passes as a team, and Jerry Jeudy, after finishing sixth in the league for receiving yards, has had his yard per game total of last year cut in half through seven games this year. The most reliable guy the Browns can send out there is rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr, who could be in line for a leading role once again if Cleveland doesn't want to rush David Njoku back into the mix with a knee issue. Fannin has been especially prolific in his first year when it comes to shrugging off first contact with defenders, so if the Patriots can't rally to him/not make good wrap-up tackles, he could be in line for a similar day to Brock Bowers back in Week 1.

Onto rookie running back Quinshon Judkins now, who's also a guy who can shake off contact against anyone, and has some legit speed and cutback ability to boot. The yards per carry numbers would tell you he's been solid enough, but he can/will find open space and break off chunk runs at will if you give him the space to operate. That goes for gap or zone looks; ask the Dolphins. One other thing that may come up tomorrow is this jumbo set the Browns let loose last Sunday. Seven offensive linemen, two tight ends (one as a pseudo-fullback), and a wideout, with Judkins as a wildcat QB. Cleveland got a pair of rushing scores out of Judkins with that look vs. the Dolphins, and I'd absolutely expect them to break that out again if they can get comfortably close enough to the goal line in goal-to-go situations.

New England Patriots

Defense

Much like in New Orleans, the Patriots' safety depth could be in question this week, with Kyle Dugger missing an in-stadium practice on Friday, and he is officially questionable for tomorrow. It would be a tough loss, given he's played every single defensive snap the last two games after playing as little as one (1) vs. Buffalo, and especially so if Jaylinn Hawkins is out again with that hamstring issue.

Now, while this didn't work out for the Dolphins last week, the Patriots may do precisely what they tried to do and stack the box heavily and force Dillon Gabriel to just flat beat them. The real question is: will the Patriots' defense be pedal to the metal from the jump, or will we see them slowly ease into things, as they have in most games this year? Spoiler: This would not be the week to do that. Don't give Gabriel any chance to find a groove.

One thing I'd expect out of the Patriots more this week than most would be an uptick in blitzing. The blitz rate vs. the Browns over the last three weeks is 36.2%, about 10 percent higher than the league median blitz rate, and the pressure rate allowed in those games is 35.6%. Some old legs up the middle of that Browns offensive line, and they've allowed at least two sacks in every game this year, and the only game they didn't surrender > 10 pressures was the Miami game when they were playing bully ball on the ground. Might not be a bad idea to speed up Gabriel's processor, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some corner blitzes. Pittsburgh threw one at him with Jalen Ramsey, and Gabriel never even saw him coming off the blindside.

Assuming they hit their keys, especially with 8-plus in the box, I'm not concerned about Judkins. However, I think the streak of no 50-plus yard rushers is in grave jeopardy, and they cannot give this offense any reason to get hot out of the gates.

Offense

I wanted to do some digging to see if there was anything out there on Drake Maye vs. man defense in 2025, and thanks to Football Insights, we found a great nugget. Not only has Maye been great vs. man on an EPA per-play basis, he's the outright league leader among passers on that front (the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is No. 2 is legitimately shocking). Speaking of Tua, I don't expect Maye to be as reckless a passer as he was vs. the Browns last week, with his second and third picks being especially egregious, but with a guy like Myles Garrett always lurking and some ball hawks out in the secondary, ball security will be as important as it has all year for the second-year gunslinger.

The lack of usage of TreVeyon Henderson last week was ultimately a result of Rhamondre Stevenson finding a groove, per Josh McDaniels, but seeing some of the bigger runs the Browns have yielded this year, I cannot fathom leaving Henderson on the sidelines with his speed unless the Patriots have that little trust in their rookie running back. Regardless, I'm not all that optimistic that last week's rushing success will carry over into this week, and I'd pin that on the Browns just being an exceptional run unit more than anything with the Patriots.

As far as OL vs. DL matchups go, I'd be a bit worried if the Browns decide to flip Maliek Collins to the defensive right side of the line and try to take advantage of Jared Wilson given some of his struggles these last couple of weeks, and I'm absolutely positive they're going to try and get Myles Garrett over Will Campbell, probably more so on run downs if anything believe it or not. Regardless, this entire line has to be ready for him lining up anywhere, and I do mean anywhere on the defensive front.

Betting Info

Points Spread: CLE +7 (-115) | NE -7 (-105)

Moneyline: CLE (+285) | NE (-360)

Over/Under: O 40.5 (-110) | U 40.5 (-110)

Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, October 25th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Only a few quick trends on the betting front for this week. Firstly, Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in road/neutral-site games in 2024, losing by double digits in each of its three true road games. Secondly, New England has now covered in five of their last six games, but only one of those was a home tilt (Carolina). Lastly, the under has hit in eight combined games between these two teams so far. I'd lean Patriots moneyline, Browns ATS, and the under here if I were laying down anything.

Prediction

My big worry here is that the Patriots' defense starts out like it did last week in Tennessee, forcing this offense to play from behind longer than they have to. That said, I have long-term doubts about how the Browns will be able to move the ball consistently with a limited passing attack. Drake Maye and Friends could definitely be swimming upstream, so to speak, on a handful of drives, but I think they do just enough to pull off win No. 6 on the year and No. 5 in a row tomorrow afternoon.

Final Score: New England Patriots 23, Cleveland Browns 17

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