Mike Vrabel Looks to Lead the Patriots to Four Straight Wins Amidst His Nashville Homecoming

There could not have been a funnier weekend for the Patriots and Mike Vrabel to head down to Nashville and take on the Titans. Their replacement for the now Patriots head coach, Brian Callahan, was unsurprisingly fired after a uninspired loss out in Las Vegas, the team, now headed up by ex-Charger HC Mike McCoy, is currently in a 1-5 hole and now set to go into this weekend down a few key pieces at the minimum, and it doesn't appear that the vibes are going to be high for the first Titans home game since Week 3 as it was.

Beyond the obvious revenge subplot of this game, with Vrabel's exit from Tennessee not exactly being amicable, the Patriots have the chance to hit a four-game win streak dating back to Week 10 of 2021, and more importantly, take a game on the Bills as they've hit their bye week on the back of a two-game losing streak. How can they capitalize on a team in as much turmoil as humanly possible, and is there anything to look out for with Tennessee?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, October 12th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Nashville, Tennessee

Stadium: Nissan Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Andrew Catalon, Charles Davis, and Jason McCourty on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Titans: Calvin Ridley (WR), Arden Key (EDGE)

Patriots: 

Tennessee Titans

Defense

The Tennessee defense, led by second-year coordinator Denard Wilson, is an enigma to me after a six-game sample size. A top-half coverage unit that doesn't really crank up the heat up front/can't get pressure or sacks, but on the flipside, has been a bottom-10 run unit despite having guys like All-World IDL Jeffery Simmons and Sebastian Joseph Day upfront. Not to mention T'Vondre Sweat, who's only played in one game this year; it would be big if Tennessee can get him back out there this weekend, as indicated.

Now, stop me if you heard this one before; the Titans are another in a line of zone-heavy coverage teams the Patriots draw in 2025 (that'll flip these next couple of weeks with the Browns and Falcons by the way), L'Jarius Snead, ex-top corner of the 2022 and 2023 Chiefs Super Bowl winning defenses, is the key guy for them, however, he hasn't exactly been "shutdown" in 2025. He's currently dealing with a quad injury that left him out of practice on Wednesday and limited the rest of the week. The EPA metrics don't favorably view most of the Titans' secondary pieces, save for starting safety Xavier Woods.

Tennessee's front, mainly a 4-3 look, will also be without at least one, if not both, starting edge rushers this weekend, Arden Key and Dre'Mont Jones, and just lost second-round pick Olu Oladejo from UCLA this last weekend due to a leg fracture. Really grim outlook on the outside, but on pass or run downs, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Jeffery Simmons, and T'Vondre Sweat can still be a handful. Simmons speciffically has had some absurd performances in recent weeks, and is the only player Tennessee has with at least 80 pass rush snaps and a pressure rate north of 10 percent.

What worries me at the point is even if the Titans can get some push inside and flush Maye, I don't know if they're capable of preventing Drake Maye from making plays outside the pocket, especially if teams are going to continue stacking eight in the box against the Patriots on passing downs. Some of these early drives on Sunday will be telling.

Offense

At a glance, first-overall pick Cam Ward has had a nightmare start to his first season with the Titans. Three touchdowns, four picks, only 1101 yards, and near the bottom of the league in some advanced metrics like EPA, completion percentage over expected, etc. However, it's important to remember this. He's playing in front of what might be the worst offensive line in football, which is jarring considering how much Tennessee has invested there over the last three seasons. No one in the NFL has been sacked more than him to this point, and he's going to be without his best receiver, Calvin Ridley, for the short term. Quite simply, Ward has been dealt an awful hand this year, and the coaching situation in Tennessee right now has only multiplied that several times over. He has some promise to be a solid NFL QB, but he may never get that chance, given how bad the Titans are organizationally right now, which is a shame.

Outside of that, and maybe making note of rookie wideout Elic Ayomanor, tight end Chig Okonkwo, and running back Tony Pollard, the latter giving this team problems last year, there's not much else to touch on with this offense, to be frank, especially with the ousting of the Callahans. Will it be interesting to see how this offense responds to everything that happened in the last week? Absolutely, but I can't say I have a ton of optimism on their behalf.

New England Patriots

Defense

By all accounts, it appears the Patriots will be getting Harold Landry this week after he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with that ankle issue that partially sidelined him in New Orleans. However, the power of hate and spite is unlimited, and it's important to note he was a full participant on Friday and not limited. I'd imagine barring anything last-minute, he's going to be good to go for a revenge game tilt where he's in a favorable matchup vs. Titans right tackle JC Latham. I can't imagine he'll have as good a time as Maxx Crosby did against him last week, but it could be another super long day for the ex-top 10 pick up against Landry, who, believe it or no,t is coming off what's probably his second-best game of the year vs. the Saints (1 Sack, 2 Quick Pressures and 3 Total on 24 Pass Rush Snaps).

On the coverage front this week, the biggest thing that would give me concern is the presence of the aforementioned Chig Okonkwo, now that Calvin Ridley is out anyway. Watching Dalton Kincaid's big game a couple of weeks ago against this team, there were a few big gainers in man looks (against Jaylinn Hawkins and Bob Spillane), and then a few others that were ultimately plays that got extended because of Josh Allen being Josh Allen. Not that Cam Ward isn't capable of creating out of structure (ask the Rams and they'll tell you all about that), but Allen also has the benefit of a significantly, SIGNIFICANTLY, better offensive line that can afford him extra time. I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots do what they did with Brock Bowers back in Week 1 and put Carlton Davis on Okonkwo on third downs, but to be honest, unless things are really not great, I don't think you'll see the Patriots go super far out of their way with the tight end here.

Offense

With the injuries upfront for the Titans and with Drake Maye's track record this year vs. zone defenses, I don't think that "Titans have only allowed one QB to go over 250 yards this year" statistic is going to last beyond tomorrow, barring the Patriots' run game showing up for the first time all year. The big thing I'm looking to see is if the offensive line can A) not let Jeffery Simmons completely take things over up front, and B) If, the Titans start to send the house as a way to make up for their edge rush losses, will they be able to handle that? I'm sure Maye can if last week was any indication, but if this is about any one offensive lineman, it's Jared Wilson. Definitely want to see a good game out of him this week since it was pretty hit or miss down in the Big Easy.

Now, based on the Titans' track record this year, it may be a quiet game for Hunter Henry again, as Michael Mayer is the highest yard getter among TEs vs the Titans this year at just 50 yards; however, I wonder if the Patriots are going to try and leverage the Titans' corners being grabby to their advantage downfield. Sneed has four penalties in coverage this year, and it hasn't been a clean year for Jaylin Armor-Davis either. Just something to think about. Of course, I'd like to talk about optimism about the run game as well, but unfortunately, I'd be lying if I did that, so we'll wait and see until tomorrow.

Betting Info

Points Spread: TEN +7 (-110) | NE -7 (-110)

Moneyline: TEN (+275) | NE (-345)

Over/Under: O 42.5 (-115) | U 42.5 (-105)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, October 17th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Short and sweet this week if you're trying to bet on this one: Patriots both ways and the under. Although the Titans sneaking in a backdoor cover wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world.

Prediction

It wouldn't be shocking to me if the Titans come out with their best shot, akin to a hockey team down 0-3 in a playoff series in the first period, but I simply don't think they have the horses to win this game. Mike Vrabel has said all the right things this week, but going back to Nashville and boatracing them would probably mean a lot to him and the locker room he's galvanized. Anything other than a win here would be extremely disappointing.

Final Score: New England Patriots 31, Tennessee Titans 13

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