The Patriots' Final Test Before a Long-Awaited Bye-Week is the New York Giants with a Returning Jaxson Dart

We've almost made it. A stretch of 13 straight games without a break in the action comes to a close in a matter of days once the New England Patriots draw the New York Giants for the first time since the Chad Ryland Game. Given how things have gone these last few weeks despite the wins continuing, this couldn't be happening at a better time. For certain, there will be no Milton Williams, Will Campbell, or Jared Wilson on Monday, and that list has the potential to grow even more in the coming days.

Not exactly ideal given the strength of this Giants team, much their better past incarnations, is their pass rush, but they're shorthanded as well, and have been for some time, thanks to a Malik Nabers ACL tear several weeks ago. Even so, as we saw last week, this Patriots team is capable of looking off at times, and especially so down the stretch with banged-up bodies. How do they go into the bye on a positive note?

Game Info

Date: Monday, December 1st

Start Time: 8:15 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Pat Patriot Reds

Players Already Ruled Out Before Monday

Giants: Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE)

Patriots: Jared Wilson, Brendan Schooler, Will Campbell (IR)

New York Giants

Defense

Despite the outrageous level of talent on the defensive line with Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Dexter Lawrence, etc., this Giants squad still is coming to Foxborough as a bottom-three defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, and the worst rushing defense by a decent bit, allowing nearly six yards per carry outright. That's not even mentioning the 7.2 yards per carry allowed on runs outside the tackles this year.

Another big thing to know about this Giants front is that, despite their ability to get pressure at will, their sack production has come primarily from Brian Burns, who has 13 on the year, while no other New York defender has more than three. Now, one key guy you could look at and maybe look over going into Monday is No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft, Abdul Carter, who has just a half sack this year, but having seen a decent amount of his tape from this year, I wouldn't chalk that up to a lack of effort. His 12.5 pressure rate would nearly level him with Burns for the year, with nearly the same amount of pass rush snaps, and he's just one of six defenders in the NFL with at least 42 pressures and 20 quick pressures; joining Micah Parsons, Will Anderson, Josh Hines-Allen, Myles Garrett, and Nik Bonitto. They'll line Carter up anywhere and everywhere defensively, and that's quite the luxury when you can get three edge rushers who could start anywhere in the league out there at the same time, but of course, no Thibodeaux this week.

The most important thing about this Giants defense has been saved for last. After firing DC Shane Bowen following a loss in Detroit, this defense is now being coordinated by Charlie Bullen, who's primarily been a defensive line/linebackers coach in his career but will be making his debut as a play caller. I wouldn't expect a stray from the Cover-1 man and Cover-3 zone that they've primarily run this year on the coverage front, but I'd be shocked if Bullen, at least right out of the gate, decides to blitz a bit more than what the Giants had been doing under Bowen. Last week against the Lions, the Giants blitzed at 24.4 percent, which would be lower than their seasonal average. We've seen teams have success vs. Drake Maye with sim pressure and dropping seven-plus in coverage, but you have to get your guys (outside of Brian Burns) going up front, especially if the coverage is going to be suspect.

Offense

Despite Jameis Winston's improbable outing a week ago, getting Jaxson Dart back into the lineup is a big deal for this Giants team. At the very least, he's not as... volatile as Winston can be, and especially as someone who wasn't high on him coming out of Ole Miss, Dart has been legitimately good for the most part as a rookie in less-than-ideal circumstances. A concussion protocol stint after likely suffering another one weeks prior vs. the Eagles that got New York in hot water has certainly been the lowlight for Dart this year, and you'd have to wonder how much Mike Kafka wants to cut him loose as a runner this week. That's been a huge part of the Giants' offense, with seven touchdowns on the ground for Dart, but it's a matter of risk vs. reward between the 20-yard lines. Expect to see him get active with his legs if the Giants can get inside the 10, however. Dart has three rushing scores from six yards or fewer out in his last two starts.

While season-ending injuries to Nabers and rookie running back Cam Skattebo have certainly hurt, the Giants still have some guys with some offensive pop who command at least some level of respect, and that would start with ex-Kentucky Wildcat Wan'Dale Robinson. Primarily a slot target, Robinson's big games have been spread out this year, but his speed, twitch to release at the line, and ability to produce on out breakers can give any team in the league trouble. Tight end Theo Johnson would be another guy to mention, coming off a season-best day last week, and someone who Dart tried to get involved a ton vs. Chicago before he got knocked out of that game.

Beyond All-World left tackle Andrew Thomas, the Giants' offensive line is far from anything you'd want to write home about. They've given up more pressure than any team in the league not named the Los Angeles Chargers, and they're one of nine teams to allow over 30 sacks this year. Definitely something to remember if the Patriots can get some plays to go long defensively and create coverage sack opportunities.

New England Patriots

Defense

While he's officially questionable for this week, we saw in Cincinnati just how valuable Khyiris Tonga is for this team on the run defending front. Not that the Giants are a world-beating rushing team, but you could've said the exact same thing about the Bengals last weekend, and look how that turned out.

The other thing that should concern Patriots fans this week is Dart's scrambling ability. While the Bills didn't do any designed QB Power stuff with Josh Allen on a night where he went for 53 against the Patriots, the Jets absolutely were getting some great looks with Justin Fields on the kind of stuff the Giants have done with Dart, and that has to have been a point of contention this week defensively for these Patriots. Cannot get into a position like that opening drive with the Jets where they extend a drive with the QB's legs, and play the game on their terms down by the goalline.

Offense

Of all the games where the Patriots could be down multiple offensive line starters, this would've been one o the spookiest options available to them in 2025, if not the spookiest. Not that Vederian Lowe and Ben Brown are bad reserve options, far from it in fact when you factor in what both did at their best a season ago. The problem lies in the opposition this week, and Lowe vs. Brian Burns just feels like a very natural mismatch in New York's favor. combine the pass rush potential on the other side with the hyper-inconsistent running attack of the Patriots, I'm not exactly optimistic this week upfront on the whole.

Where I do think the Patriots can find sucsess this week is with some of these cornerback matchups. It would appear the Giants are getting ex-Saint Paulson Adebo back, who's had a very rough year if you take coverage EPA seriously. He's also given up some big plays this year to some notable X guys like George Pickens, A.J. Brown, and Courtland Sutton, and that's the exact kind of matchup I'd like to see Josh McDaniels try to exploit with both Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte.

I also don't think I need to drive home the point that the Patriots have to be better offensively down by the goalline and in the red zone. The Giants rank 31st as a Red Zone defense on the year; there is ZERO reason why the Patriots, with the talent level they have at the skill spots, and especially at QB, should be having situations like last week where they are getting stonewalled with less than a yard till paydirt, and that, quite frankly, falls on McDaniels.

Betting Info

Points Spread: NYG +7.5 (-115) | NE -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline: NYG (+330) | NE (-425)

Over/Under: O 46.5 (-108) | U 46.5 (-112)

Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, November 29th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Don't love much of anything this week betting wise to be honest, but I do think the Giants at +7.5 is a worthy gamble.

Prediction

I was on the TDTMedia Flagship last night (which you can check out typically every Friday at 8:00 EST over on the YouTube gimmick) and in the dying moments of the program declared that the New York Giants would win this game, and even slept on that and felt good about it in the AM on Saturday. I'm now going to retract that. I don't think it looks good or inspires much confidence going into the bye week in all honesty, but in likely ugly fashion, the Patriots do just enough to beat a Giants team with nothing to play for, and snap a massive losing streak in the throwback reds.

Final Score: New England Patriots 23, New York Giants 17

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