The Patriots Make the Dreaded Annual Trip to Miami on Sunday, Will it Put Them in an 0-2 Hole?

While the Patriots' season didn't exactly get off on the right foot last Sunday vs. the Raiders, they're a decent chunk of teams with losses so far that can certainly say things aren't as bad as they appear right now with the Miami Dolphins. A humiliating 33-8 loss in Indianapolis, where they looked bad in every phase, led to the elusive post-Week 1 players-only meeting, and the whispers about Mike McDaniels' job and Tua Tagovailoa's long-term future turned into screams in the last several days. Needless to say, we're going to find out what we need to know about the internal makeup of this Dolphins team/culture by the end of Sunday.

Be that as it may, this is still a Patriots game in Miami, and the Patriots have some struggles this week of their own. Namely, the fact that DC Terrell Williams has once again taken a step aside due to his ongoing health concerns, and this defense will also be without both Christian Gonzalez and Keion White. Is the team going to be singing the South Beach Blues on the flight back home once again?

Date: Sunday, September 14th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Miami Gardens, Florida

Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Andrew Catalon, Charles Davis, and Jason McCourty on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Grey Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Dolphins: Austin Jackson (OT), Storm Duck (CB), Benito Jones (IDL), Darren Waller (TE)

Patriots: Christian Gonzalez and Keion White

Miami Dolphins

Defense

No real way to sugarcoat things. Miami's defense was as bad and lethargic as any in the league inside Lucas Oil Stadium last week, getting diced up through the air and on the ground by Daniel "Indiana" Jones. They blitzed a ton with not much to show for it, allowed rookie tight end Tyler Warren to dominate in his maiden outing, and couldn't get off the field, nearly spending 40 minutes on the field despite recording eight 3rd-down stops on a team that ran 70 plays—an atrocious day for Anthony Weaver's unit.

This unit, now down several depth pieces this week (namely Storm Duck and Benito Jones), does have some marquee talent on it (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, etc.), which makes last Sunday look all the more perplexing. Phillips looked good on the pass rush front, given all he's been through the previous couple of years, but most of the secondary and edge rushers were virtually nonexistent last Week. The Colts were getting passes out in the flat for either solid gains or 10-plus yard YAC gains fairly frequently, and Daniel Jones, to his credit, was able to dissect the Fins' zone looks with regularity.

Miami's run defense was also hit or miss vs. Indy. They weren't allowing a ton of yards after contact on a per rush basis, and they got a decent amount of "stuffs", but they also allowed six runs (five designed) that went for 10 or more yards, which is the third most in the NFL, even after the Washington-Green Bay Thursday Night Football game. Take this for whatever it's worth, but NFLPro/NextGenStats didn't have the Dolphins running stacked or light boxes at a particularly high rate, and the Colts primarily were getting those chunk runs off in 11 personnel (one was with 12, and another, the first, came in 13 personnel)—just something to keep in mind going into Sunday.

Offense

As one of Tua Tagovailoa's strongest soldiers over the years, he's never had a worse start than he did out in Indy. Downfield accuracy was inconsistent, with some very poor decision-making (even on non-turnovers), and a pair of backbreaking picks and a fumble. It was not a good week for him whatsoever, and I don't think he handled himself all that well either at his weekly press availability a few days ago.

While the doom and gloom over the Dolphins' offensive line is warranted when you look at the talent they boast, outside of the admittedly promising second-year left tackle Patrick Paul, and then center Aaron Brewer. Three sacks weren't ideal under any circumstances, but the eighth pressures this unit let up could be chalked up to how fast Tua was getting the ball out compared to other QBs around the league. Regardless, the Miami Offensive line, down right tackle Austin Jackson this week, could be ripe for the picking.

The skill position group of the Dolphins is primarily the same as it has been for the last several years, still led by Tyreek Hill, who, if you can believe it, is once again in the headlines for alleged domestic violence (shocking, I know), a currently banged-up Jaylen Waddle, along with Devon Achane and ex-Titans wideout Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Something to consider about Hill, someone who has historically been great against New England outside of that Week 2 matchup in 2023, is that he only received six targets last week. Especially with Christian Gonzalez out, I wouldn't be surprised if that number is close to doubled this week. Opening up the deep passing game should be a priority for them if the protection can hold up for Tua, which is obviously a crucial part of the equation. It can't all be Jaylen Waddle, especially as he's dealing with his shoulder issue, and he wasn't exactly getting fed targets either last Sunday.

New England Patriots

Defense

Not having Christian Gonzalez again is undoubtedly going to sting, but it could've been worse had Harold Landry's foot issue, which took him out of practice on Wednesday, been any more serious. Still with a share of the NFL sack lead after Thursday night with Packers' EDGE Rashan Gary, No. 2 could be in for another big day against the projected new right tackle of the Dolphins, Larry Borom, who, given that I know a pletheora of Bears fans, have been told isn't exactly on the Christmas card list this or any other year. The "big day" talk also applies to the big boys in the middle, Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, as well.

The former was quiet last week (I'd call a five-pressure and five-stop day good on the whole), but it's come to my attention that he was either double-teamed or chipped on all but two of his 30 pass-rush snaps vs. Las Vegas. Barmore was also the only player who doubled and/or chipped at 90% or more of his snaps to play that many. I wouldn't blame fans for wanting to see him be more of a traditional stat sheet stuffer, but there's more than one way to be disruptive, and that kind of treatment can just as easily be directed at Williams on any given week. Never mind the fact that he's only a year removed from the blood clots situation.

The one thing I'm not entirely sure about is what the plan is to defend Hill. If they had Gonzalez, this wouldn't be a discussion, but Carlton Davis struggled mightily in the last regular-season game; he was taking a majority of snaps on Hill. That would be the 2020 Bucs-Chiefs matchup that preceded the eventual Super Bowl, where Hill went for just shy of 270 yards. Not all those yards came vs. Davis, but he gave up a ton of chunk plays in that one, and one of the notable adjustments the Bucs made for that Super Bowl was moving Davis off of him. This could be incorrect, but I wouldn't be surprised if we reach triple-zeros and it ends up being Marcus Jones who shadows Hill for the most part (regardless of where he lines up), and we end up with Davis shadowing Waddle. Jones can match that level of speed, and I'd trust him more in the event McDaniel wants to get Hill going in motion presnap.

Lastly, I'd be remiss if we didn't send our best wishes to DC Terrell Williams, who is once again taking time away from the team due to health issues. It'll be Zak Kuhr calling things on defense as he did in the preseason.

Offense

Josh McDaniels made it a point this week in his availability to mention that he wasn't of the mindset that the Patriots were putting too much on Drake Maye's plate last week (correct), and that he has to do a better job of getting touches to his running backs after dropping the run game like a bad habit vs. the Raiders. Watching some of the Dolphins' early defensive series vs. Indy yesterday, I can confidently say there are plays to be made with TreVeyon Henderson getting the ball as a pass catcher out in the flat. Miami struggled big time with even a tight end like Tyler Warren out in space when they showed zone, and someone like Henderson is just a big play waiting to happen in that situation.

More so in general, though, while I understand why the run game was abandoned against the Raiders, that's not a sustainable offensive model for any team in the league, much less this one. If Rhamondre Stevenson doesn't have the juice to consistently gain chunks of four or more yards, as he did in Week 1, you have Henderson, who did pop for a few plays, never mind Antonio Gibson. Establishing the running game is an absolute must this week, with no exceptions. I'm not as worried about the passing attack, but Morgan Moses vs. Jaelan Phillips could be a trouble spot, so keep an eye out for that.

Betting Info

Points Spread: MIA -1.5 (-110) | NE +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: MIA (-125) | NE (+105)

Over/Under: O 43.5 (-105) | U 43.5 (-115)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, September 12th. Always Bet Responsibly.

There are two ways to look at the Dolphins being a 1.5-point favorite. One is to say "that's genuinely insane," given how last week went, but the other is that the Patriots are cursed the moment they cross from Central Florida into South Florida. I can't tell you where on the map that line is, but it's there, somewhere. In any case. Patriots +1.5, Dolphins outright, and the over please.

Prediction

The great (relative term here) thing about the Patriots playing in Miami is that nothing that I've ultimately presented matters. By hook or by crook, I fully expect the Dolphins to take this game, simply because that's how this works at the end of the day. Even as bad as the Dolphins were last week, there has been a hex put on the Patriots every time the Patriots have entered South Beach for the better part of the last 15 years, and there's no way to prevent it.

Final Score: Miami Dolphins 24, New England Patriots 23

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