The New England Patriots Survive Denver and are Super Bowl Bound for the 12th Time in Franchise History

"Speachless" is probably a stretch, but the fact that we're now here with this New England Patriots team after back-to-back seasons of 4-13 football, re-taking the AFC East and dispatching three of the five best defenses in the sport en route to the Super Bowl leaves you searching for the right words.

As it has been historically, Denver was every bit the house of horrors that the Patriots have experienced over the course of their history, with the Broncos' defense clearly winning the day vs. Drake Maye and the pass even before the snow picked up, and with Jarrett Stidham getting things kicked off with a second drive deepshot to Marvin Mims that setup their only score of the day.

Luckily, 10 points is all that the Patriots needed, and thanks to a variety of factors, which include Sean Payton being a war criminal play caller (how’d that “two weeks to rest” comment turn out???), the Patriots giving Denver nothing on the ground while also rattling Stidham with constant pressure, as well as the New England offense winning the turnover battle, this iteration of the Patriots can at the very least say they did something the Brady-Belichick tandem never did once: Survive Denver in January. By hook or by crook, the Patriots are now a singular victory removed from a would-be seventh Super Bowl Championship. Imagine telling someone that last summer.

High Altitude Pressure

Air pressure naturally decreases the higher you are above sea level, but the Patriots' defense didn't get the memo when it comes to applying it to Jarrett Stidham. As a matter of fact, Zak Kuhr's unit joins the Rams as the only two defenses this postseason with three games with pressure rates of at least 35.0 percent, and while the 37.5 percent blitz rate he was calling ranks fourth highest in these playoffs, it was nearly a 50/50 split of them getting pressure with four and then five or more.

The concept of simply having "timely plays" is gigantic, and while the Patriots only got a total of six pressures on blitzes, you could argue three of them were the three biggest defensive plays of the afternoon: The 4th&1 stand, the Elijah Ponder scoop and score that wasn't called one, and then the Christian Gonzalez interception. It comes down to a set number of plays sometimes, and luckily, the Patriots were on the right end of practically all of them, and that's a credit to the key guys on the Patriots defense, once again stepping up huge.

He didn't pick up any true counting stats, but Milton Williams was comfortably the best Patriot defender in this win. NextGenStats had him down for four pressures, and PFF had him down at a week-leading 28 percent pass rush win rate (and eighth pressures by their own metrics), and guys like Elijah Ponder, Christian Barmore, and K'Lavon Chaisson had really good days applying pressure in their own rights.

Williams, though, was the straw that stirred everything up front, something that's been the case for the wide bulk of his postseason career. PFF has him down for 31 pressures in his last seven playoff games, which includes last year's Super Bowl. He's now in the midst of another dominant postseason, trailing on Chaisson and Rams' EDGE Jared Verse in pressures, is tied for the outright postseason lead with six pressures (only Aaron Donald in 2021 has had more in the "NextGenStats" era with 12 among IDLs), and it's been a night and day difference in the run game with him back. If there's any one guy on this team that could give Dont'a Hightower a run for the Mr. Feburary crown, it's gonna be No. 97 in (presumably) all white in a couple of weeks.

What Worked in Coverage?

Mostly as expected, the Patriots' Cover-4 usage from Divisional Weekend to Conference Title weekend was just about cut in half per Fantasy Point Data Suite, and it was close to a 50 percent mix-in of Cover 1 and Cover 2 zone that got the Patriots through this one. Lots of two high looks in general this week as well, which didn't start out great with the Mims 52-yard catch on Gonzalez, but they clearly felt good about largely eliminating the deep ball with the confidence to rally to the ball on anything underneath.

Outside of that deep shot and one 12-yard gain RJ Harvey got on a broken tackle late in the first half, I'd confidently say they achieved that goal. It was a lot of mostly inconsequential 4-6 yard gains, and thanks to the Broncos' run game being DOA, that was more or less your game for Denver.

Sean Payton Disasterclass

The call Sean Payton made the go for it on that 4th&1 was honestly not a bad descision. You have a backup QB, you don't know how many shots in the redzone you may get, and you had a shot to bury your opponent 14-0 early. No problem with the call to go for it from a neautral perspective. Now, luckily for the Patriots, Sean Payton is a arrogant moron to a fault, and dialed up a play from a yard out where Jarrett Stidham had only about 33% of the available field to play with, sliding the offensive line in the oppsite direction which leads to Milton Williams and Cory Durden getting insta-wins off the snap, and the play might as well be blown dead right there.

Just looking at this, it feels like this is supposed to go to Lil'Jordan Humphrey after a quick chip on Craig Woodson, and honestly, that chip is probably what saves this from being a pick six. This is just a horrific play call by Payton no matter how you slice it that put everyone in a position to fail and fail they did. Happy to know that he instantly regretted it postgame via ESPN's Minister of Propaganda Seth Wickersham, couldn't have happened to a more deserving head coach.

Maye Wins with his Legs

While it's fair to feel underwhelmed/dissapointed by Drake Maye's production as a passer in this win (I'm in that boat), the Patriots biggest plays offensively were simply him making plays on the ground. Two third and long scrambles for first down conversions (the later on the game wining field goal drive), the touchdown run, and most importantly the game sealing 3rd&6 scramble.

Seeing as it's Tuesday, I imagine most know now that this was a case of Drake Maye going rouge on everyone and calling his own number. Not super hard to tell this was just going to be a run to the right with Rhamondre Stevenson that ultimately would've gone for little or no gain. This postseason has been a case of Maye ultimately being more of a spot player over sustained sucsess which has gotten them in some trouble, but if you're gonna call your own shot, you have to deliever, and he did exactly that.

One More Win

As improbable a run to get here as it is (+6000 to win the Super Bowl before the season ever started), the only thing that stands in the way of the Patriots and a record-breaking seventh Lombardi Trophy is, for the second time, the Seattle Seahawks. Not the Legion of Boom under head coach Mike Macdonald, but their defense is as good as any of the three the Patriots have played to get here, with guys like Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Demarcus Lawrence, Ernest Jones, Devon Witherspoon, and rookie Nick Emmanwori leading the charge.

Nevermind all the challenges the Seattle offense, led by OC Klint Kubiak, can give you with Sam Darnold, who's not the deer in the headlights he was with the Jets anymore, running back Kenneth Walker, and wideouts Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. To be honest, I would've felt a tad better had the Patriots drawn the Los Angeles Rams, given the level of secondary play between both teams, and how good Seattle can be covering in the middle third, but I don't think this game is as much of a forgone conclusion as it's already being made out to be nationally.

Seattle being favored in the 3.5-5.5 point range feels about right, but the Patriots are absolutely capable of beating them. It'll have to come with Drake Maye's best game of the postseason for certain, and with the offense not playing as tight as they have to start out these games so far, but why not the Patriots? They've made it this far as it is and their defense has absolutely peaked at the perfect time. Either way, enjoy this ride. 4-13 in back-to-back years, to this is anything beyond what I had envisioned for this team in year one under Mike Vrabel.

Final Score: New England Patriots 10, Denver Broncos 7

Gaffney's Three Stars from Patriots-Broncos

1st Star: Milton Williams (4 Pressures, 3 Quick Pressures)

2nd Star: Christian Gonzalez (4 Reception Allowed on 7 Targets for 70 Yards, 1 Sack, 1 INT)

3rd Star: Leonard Taylor (Field Goal Block)

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