The Last Thing Standing in the Patriots' Way of a Super Bowl Berth is a Trip to Their Own House of Horrors

2005, 2013, 2015. Each of those seasons had one thing in common for the Patriots: season-ending playoff losses in relative excruciating fashion against the Denver Broncos at altitude. All-time between the current Mile High Stadium and the original, New England has suffered 21 losses in Denver, Colorado, by far the most against any non-division opponent (including the Indianapolis Colts), and features a stretch of 11 straight losses from 1969 to 1998. We're talking about historic levels of bad juju for this team, but this is a Patriots team that didn't lose a single road contest this season, so something this weekend will have to give.

I imagine most know by now that Broncos' starting QB Bo Nix is out for this game due to a freak ankle fracture injury suffered in Denver's OT win vs. Buffalo last week. Legitimately one of the more stunning news drops in pro sports in the last decade, and Sean Payton revealed that information maybe 20 minutes after his biggest win as a coach in years. A grim reminder that nothing is really guaranteed in sports, or life, really, for that matter, but this is still a Denver team that touts one of the best offensive lines and outright defenses in the sport at the end of the day.

One hell of an opportunity is in front of old friend Jarrett Stidham, who'll be under center in orange Sunday in place of Nix, but he hasn't had a real start in a tick over two years. Some factors that make him "the great unknown" are undone by his tenure/relationship with Josh McDaniels, who had him out in Las Vegas and New England, but that's a ton of time between starts. Especially given that this game is in the Patriots' own house of horrors, nothing should be taken for granted this week, though.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, January 25th

Start Time: 3:00 EST

Location: Denver, Colorado

Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High

TV Info: CBS (Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All White

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Broncos: Bo Nix (QB)

Patriots: Harold Landry

Denver Broncos

Defense

The dirty little secret about this Broncos defense is that you can absolutely score on them. Not that it's especially easy, but ask Jacksonville, ask Buffalo, hell, even the New York Giants, all of whom managed to score at least 30 on them this season. We'll delve into a few ways the Patriots can do that in a bit, but this unit presents some huge challenges, much like the Houston Texans did last week. Star talent at every level, a defense capable of running a ton of man looks, the ability to get home at an elite rate without blitzing (even though they're an elite and blitz-heavy team), the ability to prevent chunk runs, and touchdowns can be hard to come by if you aren't at your best. As I said, this isn't an easy defense to play against, but they do have some flaws (more on that later).

Upfront, their best pass rush option isn't off the edge, but rather in the middle of the trenches: One-time BC Eagle Zach Allen. No player on divisional round weekend tallied more pressures than his seven, and his last one probably should've ended the game for a hold in the endzone in OT. He's absolutely the key guy in between the tackles, although Malcolm Roach, John Franklin-Meyers, and D.J. Jones are some very solid players as well, and I do worry a tad about whether he ends up getting iso'd on the Pats' left guard Jared Wilson.

Nevertheless, the Broncos' edge options, while not on the level of Houston, still can cause a ton of havoc, and there's not a ton of better guys league-wide at that than Nik Bonitto. Not the superhuman that Will Anderson is, who can dominate on bull rushes, but Bonitto's ability to win with speed is top-notch and is precisely why he's a deserving DPOY finalist for the 2025 campaign. Expect to primarily see him lined up over Will Campbell, with Jonathon Cooper, who had a very good 2025 in his own right, on the opposite flank.

I don't think the secondary needs a ton of introduction with guys like Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Talanoa Hufanga lurking back there, but regarding Hufanga and then the linebackers, a group that includes Justin Strnad, Alex Singleton, and Dre Greenlaw, they had some issues last weekend with the Bills tight ends, more so Dalton Kincaid than Dawson Knox, being able to catch them at depth in zone and pick up solid yardage. Also, Moss, much like Carlton Davis, is VERY grabby. Look for the Patriots to force him into some tight plays downfield, and hopefully, he bails them out with PI/Holding/etc.

Offense

Ended up going back and watched some All-22 on Jarrett Stidham's last start, which came against the Raiders in Week 18 of 2023/24, and outside of some of the on the run throws Nix gave them, I don't think there should be a great deviation from what Sean Payton did/does with Bo Nix to what he'll do with Stidham. A lot of Denver's offense is predicated on being very liberal with personnel groupings and simply taking what's available underneath (screens, backfield targets, or anything short inside of 10 yards), without leaving deep-shot opportunities off the table.

Stidham's mobility more or less makes him as much of a play extender/scramble threat as Nix is, but even with the All-World offensive line, which is getting back starting center Luke Wattenberg, avoiding sacks is going to play a big part in this game. Between his last three starts (one of which was with the Raiders), Stidham has taken 13 sacks, including five in his last outing. Just knowing how well Nix was at avoiding sacks this year, you'd have to imagine that will loom large for him.

No matter what, though, Stidham is going to need to make some downfield plays in this one if the Broncos want to win, and especially so if they more or less abandon the run as they did last week. A potential obstacle for Denver, though, is that they're second in the NFL in drops, and they had several against Buffalo a week ago. Courtland Sutton had a pair of huge ones, as did Patriots Preseason Hall of Famer Lil'Jordan Humphrey, which would've been a touchdown in the early goings. Rookie Pat Bryant should be back in the lineup, which should help a bit. Troy Franklin is less likely, by the sounds of it, but we'll see with him.

The real issue may be Marvin Mims, who led all pass catchers in yards last week with 93, plus a go-ahead score in the final minutes of regulation. More of a gadget player for some reason, he did make several notable plays downfield, including a go-ahead score in the final minutes of regulation. His snaps will most likely take a hit with guys coming back into the lineup, but his speed is lethal, and I could see Sean Payton making it a point to go deep with him if he can get some Mims-Carlton Davis matchups.

I'd also point out Evan Engram as someone the Patriots should keep an eye on at all times, given their record against TEs. He hasn't factored much into Denver's offense as of late, but effectively playing jumbo slot, he could be a go-to guy for Stidham if they want to get him in a rhythm.

The Broncos aren't exactly the most run-heavy team in the NFL; they handed it to their backs just 10 times last week, which was perplexing given they were playing Buffalo. While rookie RJ Harvey is by no means a slouch, there's a legitimate chance that J.K. Dobbins, who suffered an ankle fracture in that miserable TNF game back in Week 10 vs. the Raiders, is back in the lineup this week. Much like with Omarion Hampton a couple of weeks ago, I doubt he'd be super effective if activated, but when healthy, he's a top 15 back at worst in football. Good thing he'd have guys like Garrett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz, who both made First Team All-Pro at left tackle and right guard, respectively.

New England Patriots

Defense

Last week, we saw a full-strength Patriots defense fulfill one of their key offseason promises: taking advantage of bad football in full force. Realistically, they may have to do that once again against a team that only had 17 turnovers in the regular season and just one a week ago. Even if the turnovers may not come, we saw the Patriots catch a huge break with a procedure penalty saving them four points on the Texans' opening scoring drive, and the Broncos' offense is surprisingly a pretty penalty-heavy unit despite playing a fairly clean game vs. Buffalo. In the regular season, they tied for first in OPI calls with six, tied for sixth in offensive holding calls with 18, along with seven delay of games, and no team had more penalty yards per game than Denver's 67.8. Safe to say there are plenty of ways to take advantage of teams, or in this case, offenses, and Denver should realistically give the Patriots some chances.

One big part of the Patriots sucsess last week getting the chance to watch back was the implementation, and sucsess with running quarters (really good breakdown into that usage coming up the last two weeks and why it worked here from Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters), but the dilema facing Zak Khur this week is keeping that up and letting the Broncos play the short game the length of the field, or revert back to the healthy dose of Cover 1 (man or zone) or Cover 3 that led them through the regular season. It really just depends on how much they feel like they want to make Stidham make key throws (downfield) and beat them.

Given how grabby Carlton Davis, listed as questionable this weekend, can get, that feels like a matchup Sean Payton may organically exploit to induce some DPI penalties much like the Patriots will do with Moss on the otherside. I'd be very wary of putting Davis on Marvin Mims with all this being said. That's the kind of speed guy that can and probably will cause him to latch on downfield.

Although the Broncos weren't keen on pounding the rock last week, things have clearly changed for them, and although the Patriots' run defense has been lights out for the vast majority of the year, getting them to abandon the run as quickly as possible would be gigantic. No guarantee they'll gleefully abandon it themselves like last week, and I imagine they'll have the opportunity to break off a few big runs if they break out some of the jumbo 12/13 personnel looks they did last week.

Lastly, given how Harold Landry's usage was last week (just 11 snaps) and the fact that he's been fighting through for a while now, Patriots fans should feel good about Anfernee Jennings stepping in for him this week. He's just as good of a run setting edge, has been one of the more productive pass rushing edge guys this postseason so far, and is expected to be a gameday captain per Mike Vrabel.

Offense

First and foremost, the Drake Maye fumble-itis stuff can only go on for so long before it sinks the Patriots' season. He can only say the right things during the week for so long, and against a team like Denver, they will unequivocally have chances to turn him over before he ever can get the ball out. Now, the good news is that there are ways the Patriots can get after Denver defensively.

Perhaps the only weakness upfront for Denver is that they're on the lighter side (D.J. Jones is their only regularly featured IDL over 295 lbs, and Nik Bonitto is listed at 238 lbs off the edge). It took Josh McDaniels a bit longer than I'd hoped to break out some heavy personnel to get after it in the run game vs. Houston, but there should be a good reason to try and get after it quicker in this game. Especially if you can mix in Mack Hollins this week as a blocker, there's going to be some chances to get some runs to the second level and beyond, especially so if McDaniels decides to spam duo, and potentially get Denver to play some more base looks. Need Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to execute, but this has to be a part of the attack plan in some fashion.

Other than that, your keys offensively are Will Campbell being able to deal with the speed that Bonitto can bring off the edge, not letting Jared Wilson get overwhelmed by Zach Allen if they like that matchup (they should), getting the tight ends involved if Denver's backers and safties are going to play it safe behind them, and perhaps most of all, getting Maye in a rhythm quicker than the last two weeks. The glimmer of hope from last week is that all three of New England's offensive touchdown drives were not off that calvacade of turnovers by C.J. Stroud and then Woody Marks. This offense is absolutely capable of driving downfield on great defenses, but if Drake Maye is going to be loosey-goosey with the ball, that just might be curtains, especially out in Denver.

Prediction

I'm ultimately torn between this game being closer than most would expect and not being completely keen on it coming down to the wire, if that makes sense. The bottom line is this: Regardless of what happens with Maye regarding turnovers, do I trust him to give the Patriots at least two really good drives to get them scoring six instead of three? I'd lean yes based on last week. On the other hand, while Jarrett Stidham will probably keep the Broncos honest for at least a little while, do I expect him to really make winning plays down the stretch, especially if Denver's running game gets stonewalled or they don't want to run like last week? Especially with the lack of real reps at game speed, let alone in a playoff game, to me, that answer is no. Probably going to be a blend of the Patriots' last two games, but I think they end the year perfect in true road games and take the AFC.

Final Score: New England Patriots 27, Denver Broncos 17

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