Is 2025 the Year for McDavid and the Oilers? Or Will Tkachuk and the Panthers Go Back-To-Back in the Stanley Cup Finals

Not since the 2008 and 2009 Stanley Cup Finals has the NHL seen a rematch for hockey's most coveted prize, but that's precisely what we have this year. The Defending Champion Florida Panthers, with Matt Tkachuk, Sasha Barkov, and Sergei Bobrovsky at the helm, making it back here ultimately wasn't a shock, despite a tough opening two games vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round. Despite being outpaced on points by Toronto, Tampa, Carolina (who they decimated in the ECF), and Washington, they have a roster chalked full of playoff warriors, and that was before they swung a deal for Boston captain Brad Marchand at the trade deadline, who's amid a monster playoff run for Florida now.

The same probably couldn't be said for the back-to-back West Champion Edmonton Oilers, who weren't the outright favorites to make it out of the West, to begin with, and that was before they allowed 11 goals in two games vs. the Los Angeles Kings to kick off their postseason run. Luckily, a Stuart Skinner rug pull before game three of that series shifted the tides, and since he was re-inserted as the starting netminder for these Oilers in Game 3 vs. Vegas, he's been as close to as lights out as you could hope, sporting a 1.66 GAA and a .931 SV%. Sure, having a Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl 1/2 punch at the center and the ability to throw out a nightmare fuel-inducing PP1 unit helps out, but this is an Oilers team that's more than battle-tested in their own right.

A whole year after their seven-game thriller, both of these teams are objectively better than they were the first go around, and specifically for the Panthers, they have the chance to put themselves in a prime position to be to the 2020s what the Blackhawks were to the 2010s and the Penguins and Red Wings from the '90s and through the 2000s. Contrarily, this has already been a massive year for McDavid, being the hero for Team Canada in the 4-Nations Faceoff, and he's amid another monster playoff run with 25 points, with teammates Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins joining him in the top four for these playoffs. Guys at the level McDavid has been operating at for nearly the last decade typically break through sooner or later, so could 2025 be the year for him?

Edmonton Oilers Keys to Victory

One of the bigger hurdles this year, compared to last year, for Edmonton is that they'll have to manage without Zach Hyman for this series after he dislocated his wrist in Game 4 vs. Dallas. Although nowhere near as potent a goal scorer as he was at this point in 2024, he was one of only 10 players this postseason with a +/- at or above 10. Good things happened for them when he was on the ice, frequently at that, and that errant hit he was on the receiving end of couldn't have come at a worse time.

The fix for at least the game-five fixer on that top line was to insert "The Worm" Corey Perry, still going strong at age 40, who kicked off the scoring on the man advantage that evening. The expectation is that it will remain the case tonight, and I'd expect it to be the case the entire way here. Even into his 40s, Perry has been a reliable goal scorer these playoffs, with seven going into Game 1 of these Finals, and they need him to keep that up, especially with Connor Brown a little banged up a few lines below him coming into this series.

Beyond the obvious picks for X-Factors for the Oil (McDavid, Draisaitl, Skinner, even Kane from the perspective of just making life difficult on the Panthers), a key guy that you should be keeping tabs on is another older vet in center Adam Henrique. Assuming some overlap with his line and that of Florida's Anton Lundell, those faceoff matchups will loom large in this one. Both are effectively coin-flip guys in the dot this year (advantage Henrique, though), and just perusing through Oilers' Twitter, they do not seem confident about their guy in that matchup. Also worth mentioning is that the score chance contribution metric doesn't paint Henrique in a good light from this last round. Should the Oilers fall right before summiting the mountain, I wouldn't be shocked if his play is one of the primary factors.

Florida Panthers Keys to Victory

Not that the Panthers weren't a juggernaut a year ago, but adding ex-Bruin Brad Marchand has given a team already firing on all cylinders a certified playoff warrior who's played that role to a T so far. Only four goals this run, but he's top three on this Florida squad in terms of both +/- and assists, and what should've come as a surprise of absolutely no one had his best outing of this postseason against, you guessed it, the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 of the second round.

A big reason why I alluded to the Lundell line being a big stress point for Edmonton is not just him, but probably even more so that Marchand has been occupying the right-wing spot on that line (shoutout to left winger Eetu Luostarinen while we were here as well). That third line has been MONEY for Florida the entire postseason; an insane thought, given the guys occupying the two lines ahead of them on the depth chart. I can understand why there's some concern on the Edmonton side about the third-line matchup in this series. This is the best line in this series, and the opposition has a line featuring Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Connor McDavid.

Next up, let's talk Sergei. It's been another spectacular postseason run for the multi-time ex-Vezina winner, with the second-best SV% and GAA among playoff starters with 10 or more starts, along with a 12-5 record. Even with Toronto getting to him in those first three games of round two, he locked back in from there on out, and when that's the case, he's probably the big game goalie on the planet. Looking back at some of those Toronto games, the Leafs generated more than a handful of goals off of odd-man rushes, and Edmonton might be the last team you'd want to give those kinds of opportunities. Never mind the fact that while looking at the penalty minute numbers, I would bet on Bobrovsky having to stand on his head a few times down a man in front of him.

Now, the X-Factor for these Panthers in my book would be the top goal scorer in the playoffs, Sam Bennett, but in a double-edged sword type of way. Yes, the goal scoring, and more importantly, the knack to get those greasy goals you need this time of year, is unparalleled, but after these last two runs, would I trust him not to do something that would take him out of the lineup for at least a game or two? No. He skirted clean with the Marchand sucker punch a year ago and then the Stolarz cheap shot vs. Toronto some weeks ago, but you'd like to think the law of averages will run its course sooner or later.

Should he stay clean, however, Bennett has been unstoppable on the road this postseason. 9 of his 10 goals are in road games, and he's put up over a point per contest away from Sunrise, Florida. Do what you will with that information, given he'll be in a maximum of four games in Edmonton. I would also throw out Carter Verhaeghe; his paw prints are all over some key Panthers playoff moments these last few years.

2025 Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

Much like with that second rendition of Penguins-Red Wings in 2009, this has the potential to be an instant classic Cup Final matchup. There is a lot of the line here, even beyond the normal, when you look at both teams and what they could be like next year. I'd heavily bet on these being Bennett's final games in Florida, and who knows about Marchand.

You could easily sell me on either team winning. Although one player doesn't win a series in this sport above any other, I go back to my point of guys like McDavid breaking through sooner or later in this league. After how last year ended, I think he and Edmonton flip the script just as Crosby and the Penguins did all those years ago. The Panthers are excellent, and to co-sign Pete Blackburn's point, they are the most built-for-the-postseason team assembled in years, but they aren't unbeatable. The Maple Leafs let them off the hook largely because they lack the resolve and grit that I'd like to think this Oilers team possesses. Should be a classic, but I'd bet on the Cup going back north for the first time in over three decades.

2025 Stanley Cup Finals Pick: Edmonton Oilers in 7 Games

Conn Smythe Trophy Pick: Leon Draisaitl

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