2025 Champions League Final Preview

The 2025 Champions League Final is nearly upon us, and while it may not be the final that most people expected, that doesn't mean that it won't be an entertaining matchup. There were several concerns regarding the new format of the competition, but one year later, it appeared to be a success. The final will be between Paris Saint-Germain, who have never won the competition, and Inter Milan, who have won it three times but only once in the past 60 years (2010). PSG defeated a gauntlet of English teams en route to the final, besting Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal. Inter breezed past Feyenoord, snuck by Bayern Munich, and outlasted Barcelona in the most entertaining Champions League tie of the past 15 years – at least.

PSG are playing for the treble, as they secured the French League Cup last weekend and captured yet another Ligue 1 title weeks ago. Inter, up until about a month ago, also had a chance at the treble but fell short in the Italian Cup semi-final and later did the same in Serie A, losing out on the title to Napoli by just one point. Inter manager Simone Inzaghi clearly prioritized this final over Serie A, as he played with rotated XIs after securing Inter's spot in the final. For Inter, this final is make-or-break; for PSG, it's a chance to win a trophy that they so desperately covet; for both, it's a shot at history. Here are some key points each team should focus on to secure victory in the final.

How PSG Can Win the Final

Take a Few More Risks in the Final Third

If there's one thing we know about PSG manager Luis Enrique, it's that his teams tend to possess the ball a lot. PSG averaged 68.4% possession in Ligue 1 and 61.8% in the Champions League. They'll likely see a similar amount in this game. Inter averages 59.7% possession in Serie A, but that number falls to 47.1% in the Champions League. Furthermore, in the four games against Barcelona and Bayern Munich, Inter had an average of just 34.3% possession. To put it simply, expect PSG to have the ball in the final third a lot in this match. Inter's defense is a tough nut to crack, but Barcelona found success through their incisiveness and perseverance, a blueprint that PSG should follow. They should not be so afraid of losing the ball and ceding possession, but ultimately, Inter doesn't want to have much of the ball in this game.

PSG doesn't quite have the creators that Barcelona does, but they can compensate for that by utilizing more overloads. The fullbacks, Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes have been instrumental to PSG's attacking success this season. I don't expect anything to change in this match. They will help overload the wings and force Inter's midfielders to drop deeper. PSG has also not been playing with a traditional center forward; instead, it is opting to use Ousmane Dembele as a false nine who drops deep into the pockets, which leads me to my next point.

Don't Bother Attacking Through (High) Crosses

This is quite simple. PSG doesn't play with a center forward who stays in the box, and they don't have a single starting forward or midfielder who is an aerial threat. Not to mention that Inter's starting center backs are all 6'3" or taller. Crossing the ball in the air is likely to be an easy way for PSG to give up possession in this game. Barcelona were only accurate on eight of their 65 crosses across the two legs against Inter. PSG would be wise to take some shots from outside the box but don't overly rely on them. Inter's Yann Sommer is a top goalkeeper, but he stands at only 6'0", which makes him susceptible to shots from distance. PSG's combination of play and fluidity between Dembele, Desire Doue, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a sight to behold when they are in full flow and expect them to interchange positions throughout the match to switch things up in the attack.

Limit Inter's Transition Opportunities, and be Wary of Their Size

While Barcelona may be more relentless in attack, the difference between them and PSG is that PSG is more solid at the back. Barcelona plays with an ultra-high defensive line, which means they often catch their opponents offside. However, when their offside trap is broken, they're in trouble, and that was frequently the case against Inter, one of the world's counter-attacking teams. PSG also plays with a high line, albeit to a lesser degree. A key factor for PSG is that they have more athleticism in their backline than Barcelona, but their fullbacks will have to cover more ground to get back because they will often be in attacking zones. Outside of goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, PSG lacks significant size in its team. He's going to be a massive factor in this match, one way or the other. In addition to shot-stopping, he will have to come out to claim crosses and constantly command his box, as Inter is likely to try to exploit PSG's lack of size.

How Inter Can Win the Final

Set Pieces  

On the other end of the spectrum, Inter will undoubtedly look to attack from set pieces. Three of their seven goals against Barcelona came from them, and they have the size advantage I alluded to earlier. Hakan Calhanoglu is one of the best set-piece takers in the world, and on top of his crosses into the box, PSG will have to worry about him taking direct free kicks, too. As good a goalkeeper as Donnarumma is, he has a history of making high-profile errors, and the more Inter crowds the box, the more he will have to do. Inter's use of three center-backs also means that one of them will be marked by a smaller fullback or midfielder on set pieces. The more Inter can slow the game down in both boxes, the better it will be for them.

Utilize Third Man Runs and Stretch the Pitch

While Inter will want to slow the game down in the box, when they are between the boxes, they like to attack with speed. PSG is an effective pressing team, but Inter has the capability to break that press and counter quickly. As always, Inter's wingbacks, Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries, will be crucial in providing width and making late runs into the box. The wingbacks staying wide will also create space for deeper runs from the middle of the pitch. Nicolo Barella and Henrikh Mkhitaryan will be the midfielders tasked with making those late darts. Those runs will be vital because they are significantly more challenging to keep track of, especially when they occur so frequently. In the front two, look for Lautaro Martinez to drop deep to link play and for Marcus Thuram to be the outlet. Barella > Dumfries > Thuram worked effectively as an attacking pattern on the right-hand side against Barcelona, and even when he wasn't scoring, Thuram was chasing after every ball and winning duels.

Score the First Goal

This seems obvious, but there's more to it than meets the eye. If Inter scores first, depending on the time of the match, they'll be able to pack and stay extra compact, outnumbering PSG when defending their box. If this happens, they'll commit fewer men forward when counter-attacking but have more stability at the back. If PSG scores first, they'll have to do the opposite; they'll be forced into playing a game that they don't want to play, leaving their backline more exposed. They scored first in both legs against Barcelona and in the first leg against Bayern, and although they conceded goals in those games, they ultimately achieved favorable results. PSG has occasionally struggled against teams that defend deep, as seen in the first leg against Liverpool, where they dominated the game but failed to score. If Inter can weather the storm for the first 25-30 minutes and score first before the half, PSG could be in trouble.

Prediction

On paper, PSG appears to be the clear favorite. They have superior personnel and are the more dominant team overall. The bookies have them as a -160 favorite to lift the trophy, compared to +120 for Inter, so it's far from a foregone conclusion. This is a difficult final to call. I would be surprised to see either team win by more than a two-goal margin; in fact, I think it's more likely to be a one-goal margin. Inter are back in the final after being undeservedly defeated by Manchester City in the 2023 final, and they have experience on their side, with seven players who started that final likely to start in this one. Teams that lose the final and come back to play in another one within a 4-5 year span have a shockingly good record the second time around, so history is in Inter's favor in that regard. However, most of the other factors point to PSG.

The players are in great form and playing with confidence; they're competing for a historic treble, and it just feels like the disappointments this club has faced in the Champions League over the past decade or so have led up to this moment. Another underrated factor is that, should the final be decided in a penalty shootout, PSG has a monumental advantage with the 6'5" Donnarumma in goal, who not only has the size but also has a tremendous record in penalty shootouts. Inter should put up a good fight, but for all of these reasons, my pick is PSG.

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