Drake Maye and the Patriots Welcome the Atlanta Falcons to Town Looking for Six Wins in a Row

A week after the Patriots trounced the top-flight defense of the Cleveland Browns, they now welcome the final remaining top 10 defense on their schedule tomorrow in the form of the Atlanta Falcons. Their 2025 has been...interesting, to put it lightly. Some weeks, they're running all over the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, the next, they're getting blown out of the water by the likes of the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins. For all the talent at their disposal on both sides of the ball, Atlanta is a tough team to get a consistent read on.

The good news for them this week is that they'll have both WR Drake London and QB Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup, but there are some potentially big defensive absences looming, of which have already been confirmed are starters Zach Harrison and Billy Bowman.

For the Patriots, no Rhamondre Stevenson this week as he's been dealing with a toe injury, which of course opens the door wide as humanly possible for TreVeyon Henderson to get as much run as he's gotten in 2025. That'll be a key storyline in this game, as the Falcons' run defense is bottom 11 in yards allowed per game and sixth-worst in rush EPA allowed, and that's before factoring in their health situation. Not a team to be taken lightly, especially given their ability to get hot or cold at a moment's notice, but what are the odds the Raheem Morris coached Falcons walk into Foxborough and snaps a two-game skid?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, November 2nd

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Andrew Catalon, Charles Davis, and Jason McCourty on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Silver Pants

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Falcons: Zach Harrison (IDL), Billy Bowman (CB), Casey Washington (WR)

Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson

Atlanta Falcons

Defense

All things equal, you can easily make the argument that the Falcons tout the NFL's No. 1 secondary with guys like A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates back there. Additionally, while it appears Falcons Twitter despises guys like Mike Hughes and Dee Alford, both rank in the top 20 among DBs league-wide in coverage EPA —Hughes, mind you, despite allowing three deep-shot TDs, which is pretty odd statistically speaking. No defense has allowed fewer passing yards per game through eight weeks, but for whatever it's worth, the Patriots have also defeated every single team they've played that's ranked top 10 in passing yards allowed (Buffalo, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami).

Predominantly a defense that'll sit in cover three or cover one-man, this shorthanded Falcons defense had their worst all-around performance of the year vs. the Dolphins, allowing Tua to throw for 205 yards and four touchdowns (both season highs for a QB vs. Atlanta). That mark may not seem like a lot, but keep in mind, this team has also seen guys like Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Renaissance Man Mac Jones and kept them all under 200. Additionally, last week's loss brought their streak of allowing at least 110 yards on the ground to five straight games. Injuries are injuries, but that run game note is absolutely a trend rather than a fluke at this point, and they struggled big time vs. the 49ers' run game and with them motioning Kyle Juszczyk around presnap (more on that later).

The other note about this defense is they could be without one of their first-round edge rushers —the better of the two, in my opinion, Jalon Walker —who's been limited the last few weeks with a groin issue that kept him inactive last week. Both he and James Pearce Jr. aren't every-down players for them yet, but not having a guy with Walker's explosiveness when you're already down team sack leader Zach Harrison would be less than ideal. Lastly, keep an eye out for any DB blitz tries for Dee Alford. Atlanta has sent him on seven this year, and he has two sacks.

Offense

More than any one player, Bijan Robinson is the most dynamic offensive player the Patriots have dealt with so far in 2025. He's coming off of a game where he wasn't used much if at all as the Falcons played exclusively from behind, but he's a guy who can make anyone miss, be a legit pass catching threat split outside or out of the backfield, and is one of nine backs across the league averaging at least five yards per carry on 100 rush attempts. That makes his lack of usage last weekend all the more jarring. No Michael Penix or Drake London, and Bijan only gets the ball 12 times (9 rushes, three targets)??? Beyond malpractice against a bad rush defense like Miami. I wouldn't expect him to be that limited in the game plan this week, and don't be too married to the idea of the sub-50-yard rusher streak lasting another game.

Another big reason why the Falcons looked as bad as they did last week was that Michael Penix was out of the lineup with a knee injury. He's slated to be back tomorrow for what'll be career start No. 10, and a key for him in his return outing will be how he performs under pressure. He was 0-for-9 in his last outing vs. San Francisco when he felt the heat, and among all current starters, his 37.5% completion percentage, and completion percentage over expected of -14.7% is dead last by a wide margin. Despite the Falcons having Kyle Pitts, they do not work anything over the middle of the field in the intermediate or deep passing game, which is beyond baffling. In short, keep him under duress, ensure the coverage is good on his boundary targets, and you'll be fine.

Speaking of boundary targets, the Falcons employ one of the best in the world: one-time USC Trojan Drake London, who himself was out last week with a hip issue. He vs. Christian Gonzalez/Carlton Davis is, without question, the biggest game-within-the-game matchup. He's statistically been one of the worst tight-window throw guys in the league this year, but he's not exactly someone to lose track of. Just ask the Buffalo Bills about that. Darnell Mooney is another guy to keep an eye on, but beyond him, Atlanta hasn't really made any effort to get anyone else involved in its passing attack.

New England Patriots

Defense

Before we get to anything else, congratulations are in order for Marcus Jones for getting a well-deserved three-year $36,000,000 extension this week. There's an argument that he's been this team's best defensive player so far this season, and that's before you bring up what he can do as a return man. Goes to show you what the market is for slot defenders, but Jones was someone this team had to lock down before he hit the open market, and they did it with several months to spare. Handshakes all around.

The game plan this week feels fairly simple in theory, but as we've seen in recent weeks, that could take a few drives to bake itself in. The big reason I wouldn't be too worried about Kyle Pitts is that Atlanta has made no real effort to attack the middle of the field, and realistically, that will not change. If so, that'll definitely be concerning, but I think with the way Atlanta has attacked things this year, this Patriots defense matches up well with their key guys.

Especially after last week, Christian Barmore is someone I'd be looking for to have a big game. Benched in the first half vs. Cleveland, he should have every reason to play motivated, and especially so if he gets lined up over All-Pro right guard Chris Lindstrom at any point. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots make additional efforts to acquire another edge rusher directly based on how K'Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry perform in this game. Definitely need to see some more pass rush productivity off the edge, and especially now with the team cutting bait with Keion White.

Offense

It can't be understated how big the opportunity is in front of TreVeyon Henderson tomorrow. No Rhamondre Stevenson to take any of his snaps away, and he's clearly the best available option the Patriots have out of the backfield as a rusher, pass catcher, and pass blocker. He has to meet the moment, and luckily for him, Atlanta has been a bit iffy vs. the run this year, so he should have his chances. I mentioned 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk earlier and how he gave the Falcons fits in the run game, and especially based on last week, you'll be seeing a ton of Jack Westover in this game. Some of Henderson's best runs were all with him on the field, and if Josh McDaniels is as in his bag as he showed last week, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a page out of Kyle Shanahan's book and play around with motioning Westover a bit pre-snap.

Last week, we saw Drake Maye handle a really good man coverage defense with relative ease, and he's clearly commanded the respect of the Falcons defense if Jessie Bates' comments earlier in the week are to be taken seriously. The one note I held off on about these Falcons is that no one in the NFL blitzes more than they do, and they did exactly that to Josh Allen and the Bills some weeks ago, with great results, which led to his worst game of the year so far. Pittsburgh is the only team that's really cranked up the heat on Maye this year, and that was just a really bad game for the offense in general, but assuming the Patriots can get their ground game going and be selective with going deep, I'm not too worried about the Falcons' rush, especially with the injuries over there.

Betting Info

Points Spread: ATL +5.5 (-115) | NE -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline: ATL (+205) | NE (-250)

Over/Under: O 45.5 (-108) | U 45.5 (-112)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, October 31th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Since hiring Raheem Morris, the Falcons have been a road dog only five times heading into this weekend, posting a 2-3 record ATS and outright. This will only be the second time this year that'll be the case, and they covered in that instance, back in Week 2 vs. the Vikings when they got spotted a field goal. Additionally, only one Falcons game all year has gone over the period, and this weekend's 45.5-point total is also over.

Meanwhile, New England is undefeated both ways when they've been favored by five points or more this year, but haven't been in a game that's gone over 45.5 since Week 4. If you're in the market for betting advice, my gut would say Patriots both ways, but I'd feel a lot more confident in the under as a play here than anything.

Prediction

No other way to describe this game for the Falcons other than a must-win. They've already dropped two straight, and if they make that three in a row, they'd be headed over to Germany next week to take on the Colts in what would make that four in a row. As a result, I think the Patriots are getting their absolute best shot, but with their team-wide health currently a huge question mark, and with how good their run defense has been to this point, the Patriots more than likely hold out on Sunday for win No. 7 of 2025.

Final Score: New England Patriots 24, Atlanta Falcons 17

Main Image via