This was always going to be a rebuilding year for the Pats. Yes, they're 3-8, but they keep teams honest. Four of their losses have been by six points or less. They're building for the future, but you can be sure they will want to break their duck in Miami.
This game is far more critical to the Dolphins than the Pats. The Dolphins still have a shot at a playoff berth in a congested AFC wildcard race. They must win to keep pace with the Colts, Broncos, and Bengals. A surprise loss would make the deficit nearly insurmountable.
The Dolphins have had great success against the Pats since Brady left, especially in Miami. Since then, they're 7-2 in this matchup, including 4-0 at home. Can Drake Maye do the unthinkable and win on his first visit to Miami?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, November 24th
Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
New England Patriots 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 16.5 (31st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.5 (18th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 281.2 (31st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 165.9 Yards Per Game (32nd) and 115.3 Yards Per Game (21st)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 345.2 (20th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 216.8 Yards Per Game (20th) and 128.4 Yards Per Game (20th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 35.33% (26th) and 40.30% (19th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 46.88% (29th) and 57.89% (17th)
Penalties: 72 (12th)
Penalty Yardage: 555 Yards (14th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: CB Kendall Fuller
Patriots: DT Jaquelin Roy
New England Patriots
Defense
The Patriots have the pieces on defense; they're just a bit young and have been hurt by injuries this season. They held the Dolphins to 15 points in their Week 5 matchup, but that was against Tyler Huntley, and De'Von Achane left the game in the first quarter with a concussion.
The big news for the Pats is that star corner Christian Gonzalez was a late addition to the injury report on Friday due to a hip issue. Gonzalez is one of the five best corners in football and has been the Pats' best defensive player this season. The fact that he was limited in practice instead of not practicing at all suggests that he is likelier to play than not, but it is a situation to keep an eye on. If he does play, he'll likely be tasked with covering Tyreek Hill.
With or without Gonzalez, the Patriots must focus on stopping the run. They've given up over 4.5 yards per carry to Kyren Williams and Tony Pollard in two of the last three weeks, and De'Von Achane is a game-breaker. They'll also have to focus on their former tight end, Jonnu Smith, who has emerged as one of Tua's top targets.
Offense
The Pats' offensive numbers are skewed. They rank last in passing yards per game, but that's because they were barely throwing the ball with Jacoby Brissett. The offense has been far more pass-heavy with Drake Maye. Speaking of Maye, he's been impressive. He's starting behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and has a bottom-three receiver group, but he's still performing. In my opinion, Maye also produced what is the NFL's play of the season against Tennessee.
Rhamondre Stevenson has gotten over his fumbling issue in the backfield and is seeing bell-cow-like usage. He's seen over 70% of snaps the past four weeks and is dominating the backfield touches. He's the Pats' best offensive weapon, and they should rely on him heavily this game.
The Pats like to run a lot of two-tight end sets with Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper in their offense. Henry is their leading receiver on the year, but Pop Douglas has also emerged as a nice target for Drake Maye. The Raiders found success against the Dolphins' defense last week, and the Pats may use that as a blueprint.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins' defense gave up a lot of yardage to the Raiders. Brock Bowers absolutely dominated and gave them fits all game. There's no shame in that; Bowers is a generational talent, but the defense needs to improve this game.
The defensive line has improved in the past few weeks, even with Jaelan Phillips missing out through injury. Zach Sieler has been a standout performer, both in getting after the quarterback and stopping the run. Chop Robinson was drafted as a project, but he's also come into his own in the past few weeks. They will make it a point to get after the Pats' struggling offensive line.
The key will be to force Drake Maye into a few turnovers to seize control of the game. Maye has been good, but his inexperience sometimes causes him to force plays. Aside from that, the defense has been good at stopping the run the past three weeks, and they'll zero in on Stevenson this week.
Offense
Since Tua's return, the offense has scored 27 points or more in three of four games. Last week's 34 points were a season-high, and I expect a similar game plan this week. Tua has been accurate and hasn't turned the ball over much, which has led to the offense looking closer to what it was last season.
The Dolphins may target the Pats' secondary if Christian Gonzalez doesn't play. Tyreek Hill's wrist injury will limit him for the rest of the season, but his afternoon will undoubtedly get much easier if Gonzalez doesn't suit up. I've been waiting for Jaylen Waddle to have a big game for weeks, and it hasn't happened. His role in the offense seems to have been split into Achane and Jonnu Smith's receiving work.
Aside from that, there isn't much to say about this offense that hasn't been said. Expect a lot of motion, as usual, and for Achane to break off at least two or three big plays.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NE +7.5 (-110) | MIA -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NE (+310) | MIA (-390)
Over/Under: O 46.5 (-110) | U 46.5 (-110)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, November 22nd
The Dolphins are 4-6 ATS this season, and the Pats are 4-6-1 but are 1-4 as away underdogs. This line moving to over a touchdown makes things tricky. I wouldn't feel particularly confident on either side of the spread, but I would take the Pats +7.5 if I had to pick.
Prediction
I think the Pats will come to play, but they're just not as good a team as the Dolphins. The Dolphins need this win; the Pats don't. Give me Miami in a competitive game.
Final Score: Dolphins 24, Patriots 17
(Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
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