Are the New England Patriots on Trap Game Watch in New Orleans?

Off the most significant win this team has achived this decade, the New England Patriots find themselves set to embark on what, at a visual glance, appears to be a relatively easy stretch of games. Between this weekend and their Week 14 Bye, the combined record of their opponents is 13-27, featuring five times currently dead last in their divisions, and the only division leader they're scheduled to play over this period is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10. First up? A trip down to the Big Easy to duel the Kellen Moore-coached New Orleans Saints.

Now, the Saints, despite touting a 1-4 record, haven't been as bad this year as I'd expected in all honesty. Save for a blowout loss out in Seattle, their average loss this year is by eight points on the dot, and they're mostly keeping teams honest, which, given their predicament, isn't a bad thing. Quarterback Spencer Rattler, while not a world beater, has done a good job managing things and keeping turnovers to a bare minimum, along with the rest of his offense, while the pass defense of the Saints has done enough to keep them in most games this year. Not exactly a walkover of an opponent this week by any means, but certainly a step down from Buffalo.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, October 12th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Stadium: Caesars Superdome

TV Info: CBS (Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All White (First All-White game since 2020 uniform refresh and first time since 2017)

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Saints: Issac Yiadom (CB)

Patriots: Keion White, Jaylinn Hawkins, and Anfernee Jennings

New Orleans Saints

Defense

Some good news for the good, not great, pass defense of the Saints this week is that they'll be getting ex-Chiefs safety Justin Reid back in the mix at safety. He's missed all but eight snaps last week thanks to a stint in concussion protocol. He hasn't been a world beater by any means, but he's the exact kind of tone-setting and physical safety (with a championship pedigree) that a ton of teams would love to have. I'd imagine the Saints are thrilled he's ultimately not going to miss any more time.

Not a huge surpise given Saints DC/ex-Chargers HC Brandon Staley's ties to Vic Fangio, but you're not going to see the Saints blitz much if at all, and it's going to be yet another zone heavy team in the Patriots way this year. Through five weeks they've run Cover 3 or 4 at a 59% clip, which trails just the Falcons and the Raiders league-wide. The key guy to watch in that secondary this week is none other than 2024 first-rounder Kool-Aid (Government Name: Ga'Quincy, which is somehow cooler) McKinstry, who's coming off a huge fourth quarter last weekend, picking off Jaxson Dart of the Giants twice in the span of five minutes to help ice a Saints win. He hasn't been spectacular by any means outside of that, but coming off that kind of fourth quarter, he's going to be playing with some extra confidence, warranted or otherwise.

Another notable name the Saints are getting back in the lineup for the first time all year is ex-No. 2 overall pick Chase Young, their best pass rusher of last year in terms of raw pressures and tied for the team lead in sacks. This team is desperate to get him back in the mix, especially after a win, given they are third to last in the NFL in pressures despite being top 15 in sacks. Carl Granderson, old man Cam Jordan, and Bryan Breese are perfectly capable of rushing the passer, but especially given their tendency only to send four, they absolutely need a guy like Young back in the mix, and Brandon Staley put that into words this week better than I could.

Lastly, the Saints are a bottom half rushing defense, but given the Patriots are...well...the Patriots, I don't think they'll ultimately take advantage of that.

Offense

Let's talk Spencer Rattler: a second-year man out of South Carolina by way of Oklahoma, who's ultimately been good enough to make the Saints look respectable, but not much further than that. Granted, my expectations for this team were in the earth's inner crust in 2025, so I'd call that great circumstantially. Rattler has made mostly great decisions with the ball, shown impressive arm talent and ball placement, and has only one interception this year. Nothing about his tape screams "great", but him being a more than respectable talent in that spot, at this stage of his career, is pretty commendable, in all honesty. Shoutout to receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who've certainly helped make life a bit easier on their QB.

The advanced metrics don't love the Saints' running attack, but the one thing they have done well is break off chunk runs —currently one of five teams with 18 this year, tied for sixth in the NFL so far. In addition to Alvin Kamara, the Saints have gotten more run out of third-year back Kendre Miller out of TCU, who's gotten about half of Kamara's workload this year. I can say a lot of the same things about James Cook when talking about Miller: He has a knack for making defenders pay for not getting him down when they have the chance, and he's just a tough runner.

There's also Taysom Hill to contend with on the ground now that he's back, and luckily, justice prevailed in the face of #unethical football by the Saints last weekend. Hill on six wildcat runs netted a total of negative one yard. They'll once again get him involved on the ground in plus territory for better or worse, and probably rip a pass or two.

Next, I'd also say this is another solid offensive line the Patriots will be contending with this week. The Saints have spent a pair of top 10 picks on some OL prospect favorites of mine, Taliese Fuaga and Kelvin Banks, over the last two years, and also tout a returning Cesar Ruiz and Erik McCoy on the inside as well. Lots of pressure given up, however, their nine sacks allowed are tied for the 13th least in the league, and their allowed sack rate of 4.7% is tied for ninth.

New England Patriots

Defense

One concern for the Patriots this week is they'll be without Jaylinn Hawkins at safety, and that'll mean there's just four guys to play with there for Week 6: Craig Woodson, Dell Pettus, Kyle Dugger, and Brendan Schooler. Not helping matters is that it appeared as if Christian Gonzalez tweaked something earlier in the week, and while he appears to be good enough to play, that's not a headline you're trying to read when he's only a few games into this stint after his hamstring issue over the summer. It's fair to be a little worried about the secondary this week, especially with the speed the Saints have on the outside.

Getting back to the Saints' inability to stop pressure, I think this is a good opportunity for the Patriots to get after it up front, especially if K'Lavon Chaisson ends up back in the lineup. Last week, Zak Khur, while calling a tremendous game, wasn't super keen on dialing up pressure, and the Patriots' shorthanded front wasn't really able to generate much pressure; their lone sack came on a safety blitz. As good as Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have been on the pass rush front, it can't all be them. I wouldn't mind seeing a resurgence out of Harold Landry, who's been relatively quiet on the pass rush front in the last couple of weeks.

Offense

Drake Maye has shown regularly in 2025 that he can dice up zone coverage looks as a passer, and realistically, Sunday should be no different. I saw Taylor Kyles point out that New Orleans statistically isn't good at defending intermediate-area passes, and if that trend continues, that's fantastic news for three Patriots in particular: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, and Stefon Diggs. Just like the Patriots, the Saints have allowed a high amount of YAC yards, and that should be music to the ears of Diggs, who picked up a ton of those last weekend as well—all this to say that the Patriots should have some prime opportunities through the air.

On the ground, I'm less optimistic for obvious reasons, and the loss of Antonio Gibson for the rest of 2025 only exacerbates that. As much as the fumbles have killed this offense in spots so far, the run blocking the backs have gotten hasn't exactly been all-world either. It'll be interesting to see how much Treveyon Henderson makes of a likely increased workload from here on out, but until I see improvement for myself, I'm not exactly banking on the Patriots' run game to pop off at any point here, which is a massive disappointment.

Betting Info

Points Spread: NO +3.5 (-110) | NE -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: NO (+164) | NE (-198)

Over/Under: O 46.5 (-115) | U 46.5 (-105)

Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, October 4th. Always Bet Responsibly.

A fair enough line here on the road for the Patriots, who are currently 2-0 both outright and ATS away from home in 2025. New Orleans, meanwhile, is 0-2 ATS and outright as a home underdog, with those losses coming in Weeks 1 and 2. Granted, they have covered in back-to-back weeks now, but they've yet to cover this year as a single-digit point underdog. If this game interests you betting-wise, my suggestions would be Patriots both ways and the under, but I don't feel super strong about the total either way, to be honest, this week.

Prediction

The Saints are scrappy and pesky enough to keep the Patriots honest on Sunday, but ultimately, I'm going to bet on the Patriots' passing attack being too much for New Orleans to handle, and they do to them what the Bills did in the fourth quarter and put them away early. As long as the Patriots take the opposition seriously, there's no reason this shouldn't be their third win of the year.

Final Score: New England Patriots 31, New Orleans Saints 17

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