Why the Houston Texans Will Win the AFC

As the old saying goes, "defense wins championships," and the Texans will prove it more than any other team in the AFC playoffs. Yes, even more than the Denver Broncos. Minus the 49ers, the Texans have shown more perseverance than any other team this season. Starting the season at 0-3 and finishing it with a 12-5 record, nearly won their third straight AFC South. Watching them win close games with either C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills under center definitely reveals the championship-caliber character they have.

Winning close games against elite teams like the Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars, and at the same time, keeping games close with other playoff teams like the Broncos, Seahawks, Rams, and Buccaneers. This is clearly a team that's a true reckoning for the rest of the AFC, not just a dark horse Super Bowl contender. It's having a playmaking defense, along with two other factors, that make the Texans a very possible big-game participant this February.

They have the best defense in the NFL

They have the NFL's best pass-rushing duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. They have a top-five cornerback in the NFL in Derek Stingley Jr., leading a top-three secondary in the league. They have a linebacker that is as versatile and physical as any other linebacker out there in first-time Pro Bowler Azeez Al-Shaair. Altogether makes up a unit that has climbed the charts in every statistical category this season. Watching how they have imposed consequences and repercussions upon their opponents makes them one of the best defenses this league has witnessed in a long time.

It is a defense that could go down as one of the all-time great defenses. A defense that has allowed the fewest total yards and the second-fewest total points in the NFL. The Texans are rated as the league's fourth-best defense against the run and the sixth-best defense against the pass. Houston's defense also has 29 takeaways for the year; only the Bears and the Jaguars have more. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have 27 combined sacks, which is more than any other pass-rushing tandem this year.

Their schedule hasn't been kind to them, but they power lifted through a bevy of games against some of the top quarterbacks in the league. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, the two best quarterbacks in the game, were each held to under 20 points and no touchdown passes by the Texans' defense. Mahomes finished his game against Houston with a 19.8 passer rating, 14:33 completions to incompletions ratio, and three interceptions. It was Mahome's worst game since Super Bowl 55. Each also threw multiple interceptions against the Texans. Similar outcome with the Chargers' Justin Herbert, as he and Los Angeles' offense were also held in check by Houston's defense to no more than 16 points and under 300 yards of total offense. Herbert also threw an interception in the game.

Each of those quarterbacks was sacked more than once against the Texans. Even during their loss against the Rams in week one, they sacked Matthew Stafford three times and didn't allow the NFL's number one scoring offense to reach 20 points. They scored only 14 points against the Texans, their season low. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence couldn't pass for more than 160 yards against the Texans in round two of their season series and was sacked five times, with one of those sacks being a strip by Danielle Hunter and Sheldon Rankins returning the fumble for the game-sealing touchdown. Not one quarterback passed for 300 yards or more against this defense this season.

Stroud's Playoff Experience Over QBs Like Maye and Nix

After putting away another veteran star quarterback in Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, it's most likely the Texans will run into the two young guns of the AFC. The Patriots' Drake Maye and the Broncos' Bo Nix are the quarterbacks for the top two-seeded teams of the AFC. One of them is supposedly the head of the new class of superstar quarterbacks. At the same time, the other is still a budding star trying to establish an identity within his offense. Drake Maye is a superstar in just his second year in the league. But, like every quarterback before him when they were his age, he showed apparent flaws.

Maye's flaws became evident in the Patriots' comeback win against the Ravens in week 16. This would be the best defense that the Patriots would play all year, and they ended up falling behind 24-13. The Ravens threw so many deceptive coverage schemes that easily confused the young Drake Maye, causing him to throw an interception on the Patriots' first drive and lose the football on a strip sack. He panicked a lot that night because the first option wasn't open, and many quarterbacks as young as he is would either throw it there anyway or run out of the pocket in a panic. His tendency is not to take the time to go through all the reads and make the right throw.

Another instance of this occurred in week 15, when the Patriots blew a 21-point lead to the Bills and lost, 35-31. There were so many drives in the second half of that game that could have been extended if Drake Maye had taken time in scanning the whole field instead of staring down the first option. Sure, Drake Maye has the mobility to improvise on broken plays, but so did Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert. The Texans' defense neutralized each of them.

The only other defense in the NFL that is as good as the Texans is the Denver Broncos. But how much longer can that defense win the games while the offense keeps being the slack they have to carry? The offense could only muster up four field goals, 13 first downs, and 240 total yards against the Chargers in week 18. They had their whole starting lineup in while the Chargers gave theirs the day off. The only touchdown scored was on an interception return by Broncos' cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian. Bo Nix passed for 141 yards and was sacked four times. Because of their offensive woes, the Broncos have been caught up in tight-wire, low-scoring games, with all the pressure on their defense to hold up as long as they can. That includes a 10-7 sloppy win over the last-place Raiders and a 20-13 win over the Mahomes-less Chiefs. Nix's statistics in those two games combined are two touchdown passes, three interceptions, and 332 passing yards. The last time the Broncos met the Texans was in week nine, and they beat them. The final score was 18-15, and Bo Nix passed for 173 yards on a completion percentage below 50.

The Best WR in the AFC Playoffs

Nico Collins is all the offense the Texans need to keep the chains moving and get into scoring range as much as they need to. He can also be the perfect decoy for the rest of the offense to make big play opportunities. His presence opens the door for other talented Texans on the offense to shine. Nico's skills and capabilities have drawn more attention from defenses this year. His average yards per reception of 15.7 is the sixth most among all receivers, and his 72.4 receiving yards per game average is the eighth most in the league this year.

That is why unsung players like Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Woody Marks, Christian Krik, and Xavier Hutchinson have come through in big games this season. Nico being on the field also draws more attention away from their top tight end, Dalton Schultz, and his 777 receiving yards for the season are the sixth most among all tight ends. The more focus on Nico, the more opportunities others have to make a name for themselves.

It's impressive how well the Texans' offense has performed without Joe Mixon and Tank Dell. In 2024, they were ranked 19th in points scored and 22nd in total yards. That was all, with Joe Mixon producing another Pro Bowl campaign, Tank Dell until week 17, and Stefon Diggs for the first eight games. In 2025, they ranked 13th in points scored and 18th in total yards, with Nico being the clear number one wideout and two rookies, along with Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk, being the other wideouts. Woody Marks gained 703 rushing yards and scored a total of five touchdowns during the regular season. Hutchinson, Kirk, Noel, and Higgins each scored at least one touchdown during the regular season. As well as catching at least 25 passes from either C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills. All averaged over eight yards per reception and have been recorded to contain a catch percentage of no less than 50 percent for the year.

It's going to be more about positive yardage than explosive playmaking with this offense. The Texans are most likely going to utilize Nico Collins in more ways than one. Most importantly, the offensive focus for this team is to keep the chains moving, which could eventually lead them to become the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl after starting the season 0-3.

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