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Where Will Willy Adames' Heater Land Him in 2025?

Willy Adames has been, to put it bluntly, "on a heater." He's tied the Brewers record for most consecutive games with a home run by hitting a long ball in five straight games. He's having another solid season, coming at just the right time as the former Rays shortstop is eligible for free agency in another light position player class this offseason. With so much being said about the home runs and the energy and leadership Adames seems to bring to the Brewers, it's essential to take a step back and thoroughly evaluate Adames as a player apart from the fun narratives.


So, the first place to start is his offensive output. And he's been fine.


His wRC+ has mostly hovered around league-average over the past couple of years in Milwaukee following concerns that his ability to see the ball in Tampa Bay was hindering his performance (although his numbers there were fine, too, so those stories might have been a bit overblown). He does so by putting up quality of contact numbers that have pretty steadily improved every year, and slightly below-average contact and plate discipline metrics that haven't really gotten any better since he entered the league.


So, as a shortstop who hits around league average, his spike this season might have a bit to do with his walk-year motivation. That isn't a hard-fast way to predict a jump in production, but has been proven to at least have some merit, and Adames has pretty decent value.


But where Adames makes himself stand out as a quality shortstop is his defense, which hasn't been up to the standards he's set over the past couple of seasons but should be expected to be quite good wherever he ends up after this season. He posted +10 and +16 values in outs above average, and the fielding run value metric has him graded quite well, too.


He's been around a 4-5 win player over the years, AKA not quite an MVP, but borderline All-Star level. What does this mean for his potential contract? That's a bit hard to predict, both due to the dry free-agent class and the relatively small amount of teams seeking a starting shortstop.


The only teams who would be both in the market for a shortstop and willing to spend the type of money that would secure Adames' services (if I had to guess, around $20-$25 million in AAV) would be the Dodgers (ouch, I know), Padres (assuming Ha-Seong Kim wants to decline the mutual option on his contract to opt for free agency), Giants (Matt Chapman + Adames would be filthy), Guardians (are they going to spend that type of money, probably not), Brewers (same as Guardians), Rays (same as the Guardians and Brewers, plus Carson Williams is coming up), Braves (most interesting option here), Diamondbacks (although Perdomo and the young prospects they have coming up would mean maybe not), and Red Sox (same as Diamondbacks).


So the only teams that make sense for Adames that have spent money in the past are the Dodgers, Padres, Braves, and Giants.


Can't say for sure which of those teams is the most interested in Adames, as the Braves have Orlando Arcia only for $2 million over the next couple of seasons, the Padres could theoretically move any number of the other former shortstops back to the position, the Dodgers have some interesting young outfielders coming through their system if Mookie Betts is willing to stick it out at short, and the Giants still have Marco Luciano (for better or worse). But it'll be fun to see how his free agency plays out, especially coming off a career year like this and some quality seasons speaking to a player with a high true talent level.



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