The Patriots Biggest Test of 2025 Yet Will Be Against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Hard to overstate how big this Sunday is for the New England Patriots. Chance to take sole possession of the AFC's No. 1 seed right before a TNF game, a chance for the season sweep vs. the NFC South, and a chance to really cement home the fact that this is a tough team to deal with on the road by winning five in a row away from Foxborough in 2025. What stands in their way this week is a team that's as banged up as they are scrappy in the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their first four wins of this season were all by three points or fewer and all decided in the final 65 seconds of regulation, but they have since had more comfortable wins vs. San Francisco and New Orleans, with a blowout loss to Detroit sandwiched in between.

For as gritty as some of their wins have been this year, injuries have been the far bigger and unfortunate headline for Tampa. Receivers Jalen McMillan and Mike Evans, right tackle Luke Goedeke (who may return this week, but that isn't confirmed yet), and right guard Cody Mauch, plus IDL Calijah Kancey, find themselves on IR at the moment. Additionally, notable names like Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Haason Reddick are all set to miss this weekend to boot, but somehow, someway, this team is 6-2, second seeded in the NFC, and it's thanks to guys like Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, Tristan Wirfs, etc, who've made their offense super dangerous and a handful for anyone in the NFL; New England included.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, November 9th

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Tampa Bay, Florida

Stadium: Raymond James Stadium

TV Info: CBS (Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All Blue

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Buccaneers: Chris Godwin (WR), Haason Reddick (EDGE), Bucky Irving (RB), Markees Watts (EDGE)

Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian Elliss, Kayshon Boutte

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defense

Even with some of the defensive injuries and with the fact they have some older legs on that side of the ball to begin with, the Bucs defense has done a good enough job of managing the situation most weeks, even though that certainly wasn't the case vs. the Lions, or even in a win against the Seahawks out in Seattle either for that matter. Still, Tampa, even with all of the hurt bodies right now, sitll finds itself as one of the better run defenses in the NFL, and as one of the more blitz heavy teams in the league this year under Todd Bowles, they've been able to make up for any coverage defects with a ton of sacks so far, 25 to be exact, plus a 39.8 percent pressure rate, which sits tied for the third best in football.

Natrually, IDL Vita Vea is a guy most people should be quick to mention on this Bucs defense, as he's still one of the outright best interior threats in the league at 30 years old. Not one for the stat sheet stuff, he's convincingly one of the best run defenders across the league still, and rushing the passer, he put together some monster reps against the 49ers several weeks back. Yeah, not exactly the guy I'm excited about going up against the Patriots guards as they've been struggling as of late in pass pro.

Althought Reddick being out hurts on the pressure front (he only has 1.5 sacks this year), Yaya Diaby is still definitively the best pass rusher they have. His get off ability is spectacular and his 33 pressures (four sacks) on the year put him just on the outside of the league's top 10. He was the litteraly textbook definition of a one man army against the New York Jets with nine pressures and a sack back in Week 3, and while it amounted to nothing in the end, he had this impressive strip sack on Jared Goff more recently as well. I'm definitely looking forward to those snaps where he's on Will Campbell; should make for some fun battles.

Tampa's coverage unit will run in and then out of cover three looks primarily, and they have some excellent chess pieces in the secondary, like Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield Jr., and even a couple of rookies, Ben Morrison and Jacob Parrish, who've looked pretty solid when they've gotten opportunities. A couple of weak points in coverage for the Bucs would be, first, whenever the stalwart, future HOF'er Lavonte David is asked to drop into coverage on tight ends and running backs. Not precisely the spry kid out of LSU these days, and David has had a few notable missed tackles out in coverage this year (mainly out in the flat), and he doesn't have the speed to keep up with faster pass-catching options. Might not be a bad guy to isolate in the passing game, nor would their left side corner Zyon McCollum, who's been heavily picked on this season to the tune of four touchdowns and 22 catches on 39 targets.

Offense

The Detroit rout likely ended any chance Baker Mayfield had to win MVP this season, but that doens't erase what's been another great year for the ex No. 1 overall pick. Even as his best pass catching options are in and out of the lineup at record pace, as are some of his starting offensive linemen, which has led to him getting pressured a ton, he's kept the Bucs in nearly every game this year and has directly been responsible for some wins at the buzzer as a result.

This week, he won't have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or running back Bucky Irving, which'll sting, but he'll be with likely OROY winner Emeka Egbuka, who's taken the league by storm in his first NFL season. Ohio State's all-time leading receiver has been relatively quiet in the last month, but he's been everything the Bucs would've hoped for and then some so far. Unreal hands, unreal ability to produce in tight window situations, and has the ability to take the top off any defense at 6'1" and 205. Expect Christian Gonzalez to be on him at all times, but one thing to consider is the Bucs have also been running alot of 12-personnel (two tight ends) sets as of late, which the Patriots have struggled with this year. I'd expect the Bucs to keep that trend up on Sunday.

Now, even with Bucky Irivng sidelined, the Bucs still have Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, who'll continue their committee approach at running back, but what's the bigger thing to follow with the Bucs is who'll be blocking in front of them. There's a shot that right tackle Luke Goedeke re-enters the lineup after an IR stint, which would be massive for Tampa, and also, second-string right guard Luke Haggard is questionable with a shoulder issue despite being a full practice participant all week. Definitely something tomorrow and into tomorrow.

New England Patriots

Defense

The note about Tampa's 12 personnel usage would concern me as a Patriots fan, mainly since they'll have Cade Otton out there enough as it is, but the Bucs' best shot at winning this game is through the air with the tight ends. Not that I don't expect Egbuka, or even Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard to make some plays, but I trust the Patriots' ability to cover this set of wideouts more than I do tight ends, period, this year, based on what we've seen.

The Patriots' run defense vs. the Bucs' running offense matchup feels like it'll go as expected, but the one big thing for the big boys up front is to ensure Baker Mayfield stays in the pocket at all costs. While they've been really good at defending the pass during scrambles compared to the rest of the league, Mayfield has been lights out as a thrower on the run in 2025, as has been the case vs. pressure in general. Think of this as the Bills or Steelers game in theory; keep the QB contained at all times, and good things are likely to happen, especially if Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis hold things down on the outside.

Offense

No Kayshon Boutte this week is definitely a concern. I thought the Patriots pass offense struggled a ton with him out of the lineup vs. Atlanta, and it took them awhile to get back on the right track. Realistically, you'll more than likely see an uptick in snaps for Mack Hollins and rookie Kyle Williams at the X-spot on Sunday in his absense, but Josh McDaniels has to try and do something to manufacture some easy touches for Williams. I can't say what happens at practice, but in games, he and Drake Maye simply haven't been able to get on the same page whatsoever yet.

No Rhamondre Stevenson this weekend either, which gives TreVeyon Henderson another shot as the lead guy in the Patriots backfield after an 80-plus scrimmage yard outing vs. the Falcons. I'm not super optimistic about his chances on the ground this week, as the Bucs have held all but for backs they've faced this year to less than 3.3 yards per carry. However, I think the Patriots will almost certainly try to generate matchups in the passing game that draw Lavonte David onto him. Based on some of his missed tackles working the flat this year, that has huge play potential written all over it.

One final note here is that while the Buccaneers have held just about every tight end they've played this year in check, they've also given up a pair of TDs against Dallas Goedert (both shovel passes inside the five) and AJ Barner (both inside the five against against David in coverage). Wouldn't be stunned if McDaniels goes with some jumbo sets down by the goal line and has a few play-action plays worked into the plan this week, and it might not be a bad week for either Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper if the Bucs want to keep sending five or more on the pass rush.

Betting Info

Points Spread: TB -2.5 (-115) | NE +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline: TB (-142) | NE (+120)

Over/Under: O 48.5 (-115) | U 48.5 (-105)

Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, November 8th. Always Bet Responsibly.

Bucs both ways and the under would be my plays here if anything, but I wouldn't say I'd feel "great" about anything here.

Prediction

Everything about this matchup would tell me that the Patriots will most likely win. However, by hook or by crook, I think Tampa comes out on top on Sunday, and the Patriots ' six-game win streak comes to a close. The Bucs have been in some tough spots this year and have typically come out on top no matter what, and coming out of their bye, this is going to be another one of those cases.

Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, New England Patriots 21

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