Chiefs fans, it's finally time for the team to try and make history by becoming the first to three-peat. Kansas City finished off the regular season with a loss to the Denver Broncos, but it rested most of its starters to ensure they would be fresh for the playoffs. The Chiefs will host the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium to begin the journey.
The Texans are fresh off a Wild-Card win against the Los Angeles Chargers. They fell down early in the first quarter and struggled to find positive plays until the second quarter. Once they found their groove, the Texans put up numbers against the Chargers' defense. It also helped that Justin Herbert threw four interceptions.
To date, the Chiefs are 2-0 against the Texans, with their last win coming in the 2020 AFC Divisional matchup. Despite being heavily favored in this matchup, everything comes down to how their players will play after weeks of rest. The offense struggled throughout most of the year, so it will be interesting to see how they play after resting since Christmas day.
Game Info
Date: Saturday, January 18
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. CT
Location: Kansas City, Mo
Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV Info: ESPN (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call)
Chiefs Uniform Info: Red Tops, White Bottoms
Texans 2024 Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 22.4 (16th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.3 (11th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 325.8 (18th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 210.4 (20th) and 115.4 (14th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 312 (3rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 201.6 (6th) and 110.4 (11th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 37.55% (21st) and 35.50% (3rd)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 49.18% (26th) and 62.22% (24th)
Penalties: 127 (5th)
Penalty Yards: 1067 (3rd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Saturday
Texans: N/A
Chiefs: Mecole Hardman (WR)
Houston Texans
Defense
The effort the Texans' defense gave in the game against the Chargers should not go unnoticed. Herbert managed only three interceptions throughout the entire regular season, but the Texans picked him off four times in one game. While it might not be easy to do that against Patrick Mahomes, I think the Texans proved they can do it against anyone.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans created game plans during the regular season to ensure some of the league's best quarterbacks had their worst games. Josh Allen was held to the lowest completion percentage of the season, and Jared Goff was picked off even more than Herbert, with five interceptions thrown. Mahomes will be just another elite quarterback for the Texans to deal with this weekend.
In this game, the defense must continue its strategies from Wild Card Weekend. While it'll be a surprise if they can pick off Mahomes as much as they did Herbert, one or two interceptions would not be shocking. The Texans need to take advantage of every opportunity they're given on both sides of the ball.
Offense
While the Texans ultimately won the matchup, their offense struggled early. However, they capitalized on their offensive mistakes, allowing the Texans to get back in the game.
The Texans' biggest concern in this game is Joe Mixon. Against the Chargers, Mixon rushed for 106 yards on 25 carries with a touchdown. As of today, Mixon is questionable to play in the Divisional Matchup, which could complicate things for the Texans.
In this contest, the offense must take advantage of every small mistake the Chiefs make. While Kansas City is usually sharp in the first half, they tend to struggle as the game progresses. If the Texans take advantage of this, they can outscore them.
Kansas City Chiefs
Defense
While most of the news covered the offensive starters sitting out against the Broncos, most defensive starters also sat out. However, this should be a good thing for the defense. Down the stretch, it was evident that the team needed a break, and these weeks should have been enough to get them going before the game.
The Chiefs will be with every one of their defensive starters for the first time this season when they play on Saturday. Jaylen Watson is returning to the field for the first time since Week 7.
In this game, the defense must rely on what it did best throughout the season. While the offense struggled, the defense was always there to pick them up. If the defense's stars can keep this going, they should have no issue preventing the Texans from scoring.
Offense
The biggest storyline going into this game for the Chiefs is the rest that the offense has been given recently. The team played on Christmas day, giving them a bye week before their final game against the Broncos. Then, they were gifted the bye week for being the Number 1 seed. Recently, in sports, teams with the bye weeks have been eliminated early, most recently Oregon and Georgia in the College Football Playoff. This is a concern for the Chiefs going into their first game of the 2025 playoffs.
While the offense struggled throughout the season, it still came away with only two losses. However, the stakes are certainly higher in the playoffs. Mahomes needs to focus on getting the ball out, and the offensive line will have to find better ways to protect its quarterback. It should help that Travis Kelce is notorious for performing in the playoffs, so he should be a reliable receiver for Mahomes.
In this contest, the Chiefs need to focus on consistency. Too many times this season, they almost lost close games because their offense wasn't consistent. If they can keep up with how they performed at the end of the season, they should be able to advance to the next round.
Betting Info
Points Spread: HOU +8.5 (-115) | KC -8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: HOU +340 | KC -440
Over/Under: HOU O 41.5 (-108) | KC U 41.5 (-112)
Lines via DraftKings as of Thursday, January 16
Prediction
While rest is undoubtedly going to play a role for the Chiefs, I don't think it will inhibit them from scoring against the Texans' defense. Once the Chiefs are in the playoffs, they seem to possess a magic that no other team has.
Final Score: Chiefs 27, Texans 21
Main image via
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