Super Bowl LX Preview: Does Drake Maye send the New England Patriots up the Stairway to Seven?

What would've sounded like a literal pipe dream back in the summer of 2025 is now a game away: The New England Patriots winning a seventh Super Bowl in just year one with Mike Vrabel as head coach. This has all developed faster than anyone could've imagined, and even this close to game time, with opening night/media day well in the books, it hasn't even really registered with me that this is happening.

Nevertheless, it's real. Now, the only thing remaining between the Patriots and another Super Bowl victory is, for the second time, the Seattle Seahawks. Names and faces have changed tenfold since the 2014 season, namely with Boston native Mike Macdonald as head coach, but this is still a team led by an outstanding defense. Guys like Devon Witherspoon, Leonard Williams, Ernest Jones, and countless others make up a unit that's as good as any the Patriots have played so far. Offensively, one-time Jets hopeful franchise savior Sam Darnold has led things alongside Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker, with soon-to-be Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak at the controls in what's been a spectacular season for them as far as output goes. They were the NFC No. 1 seed and then NFC Champions for a reason.

You're playing someone tough in this spot, no matter what, but Seattle presents a ton of unique challenges on both sides of the ball, and their output this postseason, more so offensive than defensive after the NFC Title Game. Them being a 4.5-point favorite in this bout all the more reasonable, but we're in an era where that might not be the most fortunate of circumstances. Favorites have lost in five of the last six Super Bowls, including four straight. With the two weeks of prep now in the rear view, what do the Patriots need to do to make that five in a row?

Game Info

Date: Sunday, Feburary 8th

Start Time: 6:30 EST

Location: Santa Clara, California

Stadium: Levi's Stadium

TV Info: NBC (Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: All White (Seattle in All Navy)

Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Seahawks: 

Patriots: 

Seattle Seahawks

Defense

No real breaks for the Patriots this postseason when it comes to defenses. While you could certainly argue that teams like the Texans and Broncos have Seattle beat with their defensive personnel, the Seahawks' advantage on the coaching front, in tandem with the guys they have, makes them a completely different challenge than they've faced over the last month.

Not that Seattle's lacking on the personnel front by any stretch of the imagination. That starts with Demarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Byron Murphy up front, the former two of which I'd expect to get well acclimated with Will Campbell and Jared Wilson come Sunday. They led a defensive front group that had seven players who recorded at least 20 pressures (per NextGenStats) to the Patriots' four. The two veterans have Seattle with three sacks this postseason, and while Lawrence's two were more so coverage sacks, both were strip sacks that resulted in turnovers. Sound familiar?

Count the Seahawks down as another Patriots opponent that feels confident (and rightfully so in their ability to get home with just four. They've dialed up just 10 blitzes this postseason, and surprisingly, they have the worst EPA per pass of any team this postseason when blitzing at +0.43. Expect to see McDonald stick with the four-down linemen while running a lot of nickel and dime.

Something that could affect Seattle big time, depending on how healthy he'll be by Sunday, is Gaffney Scouting Alumnist Nick Emmanwori. The rookie out of South Carolina has been a massive chess piece in a role not unfamiliar to that of Kyle Hamilton or Derwin James on their respective teams, but unfortunately suffered an ankle injury believed to be a low ankle sprain. If so, they dodged a huge bullet because having a guy like Emmanwori, who allows Seattle to do all the things they've been able to do with five DBs on the field, is a core part of their identity this season. The fact that he missed practice on Thursday feels precautionary if anything else, but he'd be a gigantic loss, which speaks to his level of play as a rookie.

Elsewhere in the Seattle secondary, you have names like Devon Witherspoon, the top-drafted corner in Christian Gonzalez's class, along with Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe. I think most of America is aware of the negatives that can come with Woolen after the NFC title game, but Witherspoon is as good a corner as you'll find in the NFL. A little on the smaller side, he's relentless around the ball, is a willing tackler, and is good in just about every situation. He had a rough game vs. LA two weeks ago, but expect a bounce-back game. Jobe, meanwhile, could be someone to take advantage of, speciffically deep. More on that in a little bit.

The point of Seattle being good with Cover 6 looks and how Drake Maye has struggled big time against it coming up this week is certainly valid (Warren Sharp had a good writeup on the uptick teams have used C6 against the Patriots since Week 15 here), but if the Seahawks are going to be in line with the Patriots postseason opponents, that'll realistically be in-between 20-25 percent of their calls on dropbacks. Not a ton, relatively speaking, but they've been really good with it, and you're going to see them almost exclusively playing out of two-shell looks anyway. In short, something to keep in mind, but unless it becomes obvious during the game that McDonald keeps going back to it, don't lose too much sleep over it.

Stunts and twists should certainly be expected in any event, and while the 'Hawks haven't blitzed much this postseason, be very wary if they do; they have a 40 percent pressure rate on those plays. Lastly, since he deserves some love, Ernest Jones is a game-changing linebacker in coverage and should be accounted for at all times. He and Devin Lloyd led all linebackers this year with five picks in the regular season, and were one of five off-ball backers in the NFL to post a season-long coverage EPA of at least -20.0 (negative = good defensively).

Offense

Not even 10 years ago, Sam Darnold was probably best known for the Mono case that kept him out of games and for "seeing ghosts" against these Patriots on Monday Night Football back in 2019. Now, he's two weeks removed from winning the NFC with an oblique injury and is the closest any QB from the 2017 draft class has been to winning a Super Bowl. My worry with him this postseason was what would it look like if he had to drop back 30-plus times with that injury, and we got the answer: really good; a career-best day in fact. 346 yards on 25 completions and 40 dropbacks, 3 TDs, all of which were under pressure, which Darnold has been below average against this year.

In this case, Darnold has definitely been better when the kitchen gets hot this postseason, facing 10 per game, which is identical to Maye. Still, the offensive line he's playing behind is far from the one the Patriots used two weeks ago in Denver, and this is where the biggest mismatch in this game lies: Patriots IDL vs. Seahawks IOL. Rookie left guard Grey Zabel has been formidable in year one, but this is more so about center Jalen Sundell and right guard Anthony Bradford than him. As a unit, those three have been responsible for nearly 90 percent of all pressure Darnold has faced this postseason, a 40 percent jump from the regular season. Rams DC Chris Shula felt pretty good about running stunts with his group two weeks ago, and they worked well. The Patriots run them more than just about anyone in the league. Something to sit on, surely.

Another area in pass pro where the Seahawks may be vulnerable is with their running backs, since they lost Zach Charbonnet with a torn ACL three weeks ago, but when you think about a guy like Kenneth Walker, the first thing you think of is his ability to do damage in the run and pass game. He has 178 rushing yards and four touchdowns these playoffs, along with 78 receiving yards on 7 catches, but he's had some struggles against some of the NFL's top run units this year (Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis in particular), and the Rams didn't let him go nuts two weeks ago. He's a back that thrives working off tackle, and LA did a really good job on those runs last week.

The last interesting wrinkle for Walker is that he hasn't had 20 carries in a game once all season. He's had 19 in both postseason outings and then vs. the Cardinals back in Week 4, but not 20. Without Charbonnet, I wouldn't expect that to stick this Sunday, especially since George Helani, who's effectively taken over the RB2 slot for the Seahawks, has gotten a grand total of three (3) carries this postseason.

Now we get to the X-Factor: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who this week took home Offensive Player of the Year honors. With DK Metcalf out of the picture, he's ascended into the "best receiver on the planet" conversation this year and for good reason. He's been the best outright pass catcher in the league on anything 10-plus air yards downfield, and it hasn't been particularly close. Going from the best slot receiver in terms of yards last year to this has been a huge development for Klint Kubiak's offense, and while JSN wasn't really needed in the divisional round win vs. San Francisco, he answered the bell big time vs. LA with 10 grabs for 153 yards and a score. He's going to be a handful and will absolutely make at least a few big plays; it's just a matter of fact. Kubiak has thrived on motioning JSN around and even getting him going out of the backfield like on his touchdown two weeks back.

Elsewhere, former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp has been another huge piece of the puzzle offensively for Seattle, and given Seattle thrives on using 12 and 13 personnel, you have to bring up their tight ends, AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo, and Eric Saubert. None have really played much of a role in the passing game so far, but I'll always be wary of this Patriots team's ability to cover tight ends. Interestingly enough, though, Bill Barnwell put up something earlier this week that should be kept in mind: Seattle statistically is not that good running out of 12 personnel looks vs. nickel/dime this year in the passing game. Vs. base, they've been great in 12, but that's an area where the Patriots should feel really good.

Final few notes here (thanks to Evan Lazar): first, Seattle has been the second-worst third-and-long offense in football this year, while the Patriots have been the best third-and-long defense by conversion rate. Another area where New England seemingly has Seattle beat. Next, this is the best play-action offense vs. defense in terms of EPA per play. Lastly, if Cooper Kupp throws a pass in this game, know the Seahawks socials blew their cover earlier in the week with a practice picture.

New England Patriots

Defense

The Patriots have more or less gotten here on the back of three tremendous defensive performances, and even with Terrell Williams now cancer-free and with the team this week, it's on Zak Kuhr to have one last great plan to hopefully win the Patriots a Super Bowl. We've talked about the mismatch advantages they have, and in theory, they have every opportunity in the world to make Darnold's life hell up front and up the gut specifically. If you can pressure him, the chances of him screwing up go up exponentially; his six picks under pressure were the fourth most in the NFL, and his seven on plays where the opposition blitzed led the league outright. Never mind the struggles vs. stunts, which the Patriots have been excellent at all season long, especially in the playoffs. There's also the whole, they've been an unreal run defending team with Milton Williams in the lineup, thing that I feel pretty good about translating to Sunday.

Milton Williams has been up to the task big time all year, and in this game a year ago for the Eagles, and should be expected to play a huge role once again. I'm more interested in seeing how Christian Barmore handles himself. We saw a glimpse of the kind of splash plays he can generate vs. Denver and Quinn Meinerz, but it's really only been that, a pressure vs. the Chargers that was essentially what caused a Justin Herbert fumble on a flush. That's another big money player up the gut you'd hope to get more big plays out of for sure, but if there's someone to put your trust in defensively for New England, it's Williams.

The only other question I'd have on the defensive front is how effective Harold Landry would be if he's active? He hasn't played since the Ravens game, and you've had guys like Anfernee Jennings and Elijah Ponder step up over on the defensive left edge spot. No matter what, I don't expect to see him at a high clip, but he was never really the same after that injury in New Orleans. Don't know if I'd expect much, but I'm here for surprises.

The Patriots defense may also be in a good spot when you look at Seattle's struggles playing out of 12 personnel vs. nickel/dime, and at the rate they're going, there gonna be playing out of it very frequently on early downs. Carlton Davis may have spilled the beans with the idea that Christian Gonzalez shadowing JSN, but its going to be very fun to watch Seattle do things schematically to counteract that. Running trips bunch sets that can naturally get JSN something more favorable, motioning, lining him up out of the backfield as they have these last few weeks, etc. If you're going into this game thinking Gonzalez will pitch a shutout, you'll be dissapointed, but he's certainaly the best corner he'll be "facing" this postseason. Alo interested to see Cooper Kupp vs. Marcus Jones in the slot when the Seahawks break out some 11 personnel looks.

Offense

An extra week of rest and sure enough, Drake Maye is off the injury report with that shoulder issue, and I think it's more than fair to expect his level of play to improve from the prior three games. Not only is he good enough to practice without any limitations, but another underrated thing is that this is the first non-weather game (sub-40-degree temps or inclement weather) in quite some time, and I think that, in theory, helps him out.

The Cover 6 stuff will certainly come up, but especially with the fact that he and Josh McDaniels should be well prepared for it at this point, I'm not as worried about it as I would've been if there wasn't the bye week here. We've seen Drake Maye proficently hit some really good hole shot throws vs. Cover 2 this year, and that would be something I'd expect to see on the C2 side on those looks for certain, but the bottom line regardless of what MikeMac and the Seahawks throw out, Drake Maye has to be better if the Patriots want to win this game, and at this stage, that's fair to expect out of him. Even if that means he's only a little bit better than he was vs. Houston (without the turnovers), that's better than what it was vs. Denver.

On both the run and pass fronts, one thing I'm interested to see is if McDaniels takes a page out of the Sean McVay book and runs 12 personnel, which did give Seattle problems with Matt Stafford at the helm on a 14-play sample. Going back and looking at the Denver game, the Patriots only ran six total plays out of pure 12 personnel, which can definitely be attributed to the hyper-conservative game plan they ran in the second half, but the Rams were able to generate some massive plays out of 12 through three quarters. For whatever reason, they moved away from it in the fourth, but there's a blueprint for the Patriots to follow if they so choose (Hoss Juke, I'm begging you atJoshMcDaniels)

Just like on the other side, pass protection will be a huge part of the story for the Patriots, and this team will need Will Campbell and Jared Wilson at their best against two vets in Lawrence and Williams who've waited their entire lives for this game. I fully expect Lawrence on the left side of the line rather than Boye Mafe/Derrick Hall for the sheer fact you'd have two of your best pass rushers on rookies (in theory). If even one of those two gets got, the Patriots may be in some trouble offensively. The fact that they don't blitz a ton should help, as should anytime the Patriots can get Rhamondre Stevenson into chip, but those two are as important as anyone in this game.

Prediction

The closer we get to game time, the better I feel about this, but I'm picking the Patriots to win. They're definitely rightful underdogs in this tilt, which is more than fair, but just looking at the historic money coming in on Seattle and the wide consensus from national pundits, this team should be plenty motivated 60 minutes from glory against a team and offense they have the potential to get after. Then there's the Brady "no dog in this fight" stuff that clearly got to Bob Spillane. It's going to have to include Maye playing his best game of the postseason, but given the entire year to this point, I think it's fair to put some faith in the kid, and more importantly, Mike Vrabel and this coaching staff, given that they've made it this far. It should be another good one between these two, much like Super Bowl XLIX, but I genuinely think a seventh banner is going up at Gillette Stadium.

Final Score: New England Patriots 27, Seattle Seahawks 23

Super Bowl MVP Pick: Milton Williams

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