The last few weeks have been satisfying and refreshing for Atlanta Falcons football. Currently on a three-game win streak, the Falcons' offense has been on fire, scoring over 30 points in each of the last two games. Two weeks ago, they threw for over 500 yards, and last week, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 200 rushing yards. This kind of balance is something Falcons fans have been longing for, and there's hope the offense can continue its recent success. While the pass rush struggles are still evident on defense, the unit has done a good job of limiting big plays downfield and stepping up in high-leverage situations.
The Seattle Seahawks stand in the way of a fourth straight win for the Falcons. Currently, the Seahawks are 3-3 under new head coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks are on a three-game losing streak after starting the season 3-0. Seattle is an interesting team this year. Their first three wins came against the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins, but the next three games—against the Lions, Giants, and 49ers—resulted in losses by more than one possession each. Despite their recent struggles, the Seahawks still feature a talented receiving corps, and Geno Smith remains one of the better passers in the league. The defense under Macdonald hasn’t been stellar, but it ranks near the top of the league in sacks.
Head to Head: 21 games, Seahawks lead the series: 12-9
Last Mathcup: 09-25-2022 ATL won: 27-23
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 18th
Start Time: 12:00CT/1:00ET
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma)
Falcons Uniform Info:
Seahawks Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 24.3 (13th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.0 (24th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 373.2 Yards (7th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 276.7 Yards Per (1st) and 96.5 Yards per (29th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 339.7 (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 195.0 Yards Per (10th) and 144.7 (26th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 38.67% (20th) and 33.75% (8th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 64.29% (11th) and 50.00% (13th)
Penalties Offense/Defense: 7.6 per game (26th) and 6.8 per game (15th)
Penalty Yardage Offense/Defense: 58.7 yards per game (24th) and 57.0 yards per game (16th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Seahawks: Stone Forsythe (OT), Tre Brown (CB), Riq Woolen (CB), Jerrick Reed ll (S)
Falcons: Lorenzo Carter (OLB), Troy Anderson (LB)
Seattle Seahawks
Defense
After Pete Carroll's departure, Seattle hired Mike Macdonald, one of the top defensive minds from the Baltimore Ravens, as his replacement. Statistically, the defense has struggled, ranking in the league's bottom half in both yards and points allowed. They gave up 40 points to the Lions and 36 to the 49ers—two of the league's better offenses—but even the Giants managed to score 29 against them. Seattle has been better at defending the pass than the run, but during their three-game losing streak, they allowed over 115 rushing yards in each game, including more than 200 against San Francisco.
Despite these issues, there are some positives. Seattle ranks 8th in the league in sacks, with 17 total. Derick Hall leads the team with five sacks, while Boye Mafe is second with three. Several other players have contributed two sacks each. However, the defense struggles with turnovers, ranking 27th in the league with just four.
For this matchup, starting cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Tre Brown are both ruled out. Woolen, who has one of the team’s two interceptions this year, will be especially missed. While Seattle has had more success defending the pass, the absence of their starting cornerbacks could make Atlanta more inclined to air the ball out in this game.
Offense
Turning to the offensive side of the ball, there’s a lot to like about what Seattle offers. With players like D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at wide receiver, Geno Smith has a talented group to work with. They also have two solid running backs, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. In his first NFL coaching role, Ryan Grubb is handling play-calling duties after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Washington, where he coached Michael Penix Jr.
This offense is heavily geared toward the passing game, averaging a league-high 41.8 pass attempts per game. They also lead the NFL in passing yards per game, with 276.7, and Geno Smith is currently the league leader in passing yards, totaling 1,778. However, when it comes to the running game, the Seahawks rank last in rushing attempts but are fourth in rushing touchdowns, with nine on the season. Their talented wide receiver corps is a major reason for the pass-heavy approach, but their inability to run the ball effectively has been a drawback. Smith has been solid but not spectacular, with six touchdowns and six interceptions, placing him 22nd in the league in passer rating.
This will be an intriguing matchup for the Falcons' defense. Atlanta's conservative approach may influence how often Seattle chooses to pass, especially given the Falcons' struggles defending the run over the past few weeks. The showdown between A.J. Terrell and D.K. Metcalf promises to be exciting—be sure to grab your popcorn.
Atlanta Falcons
Defense
The Falcons' defense has shown mixed performances so far this season. They’ve done well in limiting big plays and have improved at creating turnovers. However, the pass rush remains a significant weakness. Atlanta will be without Lorenzo Carter (who has yet to record a sack), so Arnold Ebiketie will likely see more snaps on the opposite side of Matt Judon. This week, Jimmy Lake addressed the lack of pass rush and expressed confidence that it can be fixed.
The Falcons will also be missing linebacker Troy Anderson, with Nate Landman and Kaden Elliss stepping in as the primary inside linebackers. Landman had a strong showing in his first game back, earning the highest grade for a Falcon from Pro Football Focus (PFF). Safety Justin Simmons is questionable for Sunday, which could be a significant blow to the Falcons' defense, especially against Seattle's potent passing attack. Simmons suffered a hamstring tweak against Carolina, but Raheem Morris reported that he was pulled from the game as a precaution. If Simmons is unavailable, Richie Grant will take his place.
Once again, the pass rush will be crucial for the Falcons' success this week. Another defensive concern has been stopping the run, with Atlanta ranking 24th in the league in opponent rushing yards. The defensive front needs to improve both in generating sacks and defending the run, and it all starts with Jimmy Lake. Atlanta's secondary will face a tough test on Sunday, and any help from the pass rush will be essential in slowing down Geno Smith.
Offense
The Falcons' offense has been nearly a masterpiece over the past couple of weeks. They've scored the most points in back-to-back games since 2016, winning in two very different fashions. The ability to dominate through the air one week and then run the ball down the opponent's throat the next is something most teams can't do. Zac Robinson looks more comfortable calling plays each week, and Kirk Cousins is playing some of his best football this season.
This week, the offense should take a similar approach to what Atlanta did on the ground last week. Seattle has struggled to defend the run, and with the Falcons' two-headed monster at running back, they could easily combine for over 200 yards again. However, with Seattle down both starting cornerbacks, it's also possible that Robinson will look to air the ball out and score points in bunches. Drake London and Darnell Mooney have formed a tremendous one-two punch at receiver, with London near the top of the league in major receiving stats. If he gets to face a "depth" secondary, he could continue the impressive season he's been putting together.
Betting Info
Points Spread: SEA +3 (+120) | ATL -3 (-102)
Moneyline: SEA (+130) | ATL (-154)
Over/Under: O 50.5 (-118) | U 50.5 (-104)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, October 18th
Prediction
As always, it's prediction time. I like the over/under in this matchup, and I'm going to take the over. With the Falcons' defense playing conservatively and the Seahawks' defense ranking 24th in points allowed, we could easily see a back-and-forth shootout. However, I have to give this one to the Dirty Birds. The offense is red hot right now, and there's a lot of motivation in the locker room as they aim for their fourth straight win. Seattle hasn't been playing its best football lately, and while they will be eager to snap their losing streak, I think the Falcons' balanced offense will be too much for them to handle.
Final Score: SEA: 24, ATL: 31
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