Looking Ahead at 2025 NFL Win Totals Post Schedule Release

Now that the 2025 NFL Schedule is set from start to finish, win totals for the upcoming season are a naturally hot topic, given that we can see some of the easy and rough stretches of games teams will go through. Take a team like the Dallas Cowboys, for example, who play six playoff teams in their final seven games, or the New York Giants, who draw eight playoff teams in their first 13 weeks of action. With the idea of totals in mind, though, here are some overs and under that jump out to me as attractive, while we're still around four months out from regular season football.

Totals via BetMGM as of May 15, 2025. Always gamble responsibly.

Unders I Like

Honorable Mention: New York Giants U 5.5 Wins (-145)

New Orleans Saints U 5.5 Wins (-120)

Despite making a solid coaching overhaul this offseason, I find it hard to look at the entirety of this Saints roster and feel much optimism. Even if you take the Derek Carr retirement and thenavailability concerns with Chris Olave out of the equation, this is a defense that was extremely poor last year and really couldn't due much to improve outside of adding Justin Reid and Davon Godchaux since Mickey Loomis is litterally going down with the ship with an aging core who's window slammed shut five years ago. Never mind the pressing question of whether or not Tyler Shough can do enough as a rookie to help this team win games in what'll likely be a run-first offense.

Furthermore, despite having the third-easiest schedule in the league based on 2024's results and only playing four games vs. playoff teams from a year ago, 9 of their first 10 matchups are against the Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, Bears, Bucs, Rams, and Panthers—not exactly a cakewalk. Then there are four divisional games coming out of their Week 10 bye as well, including two against Atlanta. Given all the factors here, this feels like the year where the Saints finally bottom out, which is probably the best possible long-term outcome for them. I wouldn't overthink this one.

Dallas Cowboys U 7.5 Wins (+110)

Dallas has had consistent ebbs and flows between being a good and bad regular-season team for the last decade, and this feels like another down year while they figure things out with Brian Schottenheimer in his first year running Jerry Jones' ship. Main reasons being Dak Prescott coming off a season-ending injury, in a year where he wasn't exactly lighting it up by the way (his 86.0 passer rating ranked 27th of 35 qualified passers, and his -0.11 EPA Per Dropback 30th of 35), and I have doubts about how George Pickens will acclimate himself with this team, and more so, his ability not to let his emoitions boil over and hurt the Cowboys during games, in adition to this defense on the whole, who were about as bad as you can get over multiple stretches last year.

Now, one of the bigger schedule release storylines does involve the Cowboys, more speciffically, their absolute gauntlet they have to close the year out. From the week prior to Thanksgiving to the penultimate week of the regular season, their slate is as follows: Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Chargers, and Commanders. Despite the good draft, 10 of their games coming against the NFC North, Eagles, Commanders, Chiefs, and Broncos is a brutal, brutal draw for a bottom-half team with a first-time head coach (who I'm not particularly high on). Also, another reason I'd feel really good about the under here is that they have three additional Thursday night games after the season opener in Philly, all in the last six weeks of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs U 11.5 Wins (-118)

This is one of those cases where I don't think a team goes under by much, but still goes under all the same. The Chiefs don't really get much breathing room in the opening two months of the season, with tilts against the Chargers and Eagles right off the bat, then the Ravens, Lions, Commanders, and Bills all before their Week 10 bye. Both Broncos games and the latter Chargers matchup on the other side aren't freebies either, but my two concerns with the Chiefs for the time being will be their ability to generate pressure outside of Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, and should Rashee Rice face a suspension stemming from his hit and run incident in 2024, will Xavier Worthy and an over the hill Travis Kelce be enough for Mahomes offensively? This is still undoubtedly a double-digit win for the Chiefs team in my eyes, but the law of averages would suggest they aren't going to have the absurd level of devil magic at their disposal as they did in the 2024 regular season.

Overs I Like

Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders O 9.5 Wins (-120)

Carolina Panthers O 6.5 Wins (-110)

It took a Bryce Young benching to get things clicking in 2024, but I loved most of what the Panthers have done the last two offseasons. While I wouldn't bet my life savings on them being a playoff lock, I think them hitting at least seven wins is easily on the table in 2025. The one stretch that would worry me somewhat would be from late October through November, where the Panthers draw the Bills, Packers, Saints, Falcons, 49ers, and Rams in succession, but that stretch last year where they gave the Chiefs, Bucs, and Eagles all they could handle in consecutive weeks, then that season finale in Atlanta, gives me hope they can answer the bell against some tougher competition.

Also, some food for thought: From the time he was unbenched to the end of the season, QB Bryce Young led the NFL in big-time throws with 26, two more than C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes combined. It's not unreasonable to expect him to take further steps and solidify himself as the long-term guy in Charlotte with a good season. This defense also made enough improvements that those few 40-plus point blowouts won't happen again in my estimation.

New England Patriots O 8.5 Wins (+115)

Decent heap of teams on that 8.5 win line, and I think there's some good value the entire way, namely these following two teams and starting out with the Patriots. Outside of the annual Miami loss coming nice and early in Week 2, it looks like very smooth sailing for them for the most part, going into their late bye week, thanks to some massive roster upgrades this offseason. Teams like the Raiders, Titans, Browns, Jets, Steelers (who they've historically dominated since the late 90s), Saints, and Giants stick out right away in that opening 14-week run, and they only play four playoff teams from last season. Much of this is assuming Drake Maye turns flashes from 2024 into winning football, but this Mike Vrabel-led team ending up in the 9-11 win range by year's end doesn't seem super far-fetched when you really look at their path.

Pittsburgh Steelers O 8.5 Wins (+100)

This is a case where I think you have to look past the idea that this might not be as good a team as they were a year ago, and even if they get Aaron Rodgers, the last time we saw him at the peak of his powers was the opening drive of the 2021 NFC Divisional Round, and face reality. This team, by their actions and words, hasn't been championship-oriented in years, rather prioritizing Mike Tomlin's above .500 record intact by any means necessary, and until I see them under .500 at year's end for myself, this is an over you should take every day of the week.

Roster-wise, this Steelers defense is still in good enough shape despite some old legs hanging around to steal some games, and I think the offensive line and skill group combination are solid enough that if they can get consistent enough quarterback play, they should be a fine enough unit on that side of the ball. 10th toughest schedule in the league in 2025, but they've had a knack for about the last 15 years to win games pretty consistently, they have no business winning (either because they're outmatched or dug themselves an early, yet preventable hole) while also losing games to vastly inferior competition. That'll likely even itself out naturally, and you'll be looking at Pittsburgh with either a 9-8 or 10-7 record by January in my estimation.

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