The time has come for the Dolphins. The Fall has come and gone, and temperatures are getting chilly. The last two matchups were get-right games against weaker opposition at home, but the most brutal stretch of the season is here.
It starts with a visit to Green Bay, where the temperatures will be below freezing. Tua (and the Dolphins in general) infamously struggle in sub-40-degree weather. It's a massive game for both teams. The Dolphins need to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race. Meanwhile, the Packers play in the best division in all of football and still have to play against Detroit and Minnesota away from home.
The Dolphins haven't been great on primetime in the past few years. Still, the Packers have generally struggled in big games themselves this season. Can Tua and the Dolphins break the curse in the cold and continue their winning streak, or were the last few games just a flash in the pan?
Game Info
Date: Thursday, November 28th
Start Time: 8:20 PM EDT
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Stadium: Lambeau Field
TV Info: NBC (Mike Tirico, Jason Garrett on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White Throwbacks
Green Bay Packers 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 26.2 (8th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.3 (10th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 381.9 (5th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 230.3 Yards Per Game (11th) and 151.6 Yards Per Game (3rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 319.3 (11th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 206.5 Yards Per Game (11th) and 112.7 Yards Per Game (12th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 37.60% (19th) and 35.66% (12th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 54.55% (20th) and 60.00% (20th)
Penalties: 74 (10th)
Penalty Yardage: 544 Yards (17th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Thursday
Dolphins: LB Tyus Bowser, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Walker
Packers: CB Jaire Alexander, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Edgerrin Cooper
Green Bay Packers
Defense
The Packers' defense has been a solid unit all season. Numbers-wise, they rank in the top 12 in most metrics. One thing they do at an elite level is force turnovers. They rank second in the NFL with 22 takeaways, trailing only the Texans. Free agent signing Xavier McKinney has been a tremendous pickup; he's tied for the league lead with seven interceptions.
For the other safety, 4th-round rookie Evan Williams has been a revelation. He's made the starting strong safety spot his own and has been one of the most underrated rookies in the league. The big news in the Packers' secondary is that star corner Jaire Alexander is out, as he's dealt with injuries all season. This is excellent news for the Dolphins and for Tyreek Hill especially.
On the defensive line, Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark lead the way. Gary is the team leader in sacks, and Clark is a veteran presence. While it will be cold, there shouldn't be too much wind, so I expect the Dolphins to target the secondary without Alexander. Where the Packers' defense may have such joy will be in trying to force turnovers again.
Offense
The Green Bay offense has been a roller coaster this season. After Jordan Love's injury in Week 1, it looked like Malik Willis would be taking the reigns for a while. However, Love came back sooner than expected and only missed two weeks, albeit he ended up leaving another game a few weeks later with another injury. So he's been banged up but seems healthy now after their bye week in Week 10.
Notable news for the offense is that wideout Romeo Doubs entered concussion protocol and will be out for this game. This means that Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson are slated for more prominent roles. Wicks has had a drop issue this season but has the trust of Jordan Love. The Packers' leading receiver is Jayden Reed, but unlike most teams, they don't have a defined No. 1 target; it seems to change every game.
One thing that they do have, however, is a clear lead running back. Josh Jacobs is quietly third in the NFL in rushing yards and has seven touchdowns in his last five games. Expect the Packers to rely heavily on him, especially if they get an early lead.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins defense has been improving, especially on the defensive line. The last two games have been against mediocre offenses. Still, their performance against the Rams will be something they'll look to replicate in this game. The Packers' offense is no joke, especially at home.
Linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. left the game against the Pats with a hamstring injury and is out for this game. The Dolphins signed Tyler Dodson off waivers on November 12th, and he filled in for Walker on Sunday and will do so again against Green Bay. He had five tackles and the game's only interception when he came on.
As good as Jordan Love is, he's been reckless this season. The Dolphins defense must take a page from the Packers and force him into turnovers. Jalen Ramsey is still playing as well as ever and should have freedom without having to shadow any specific receiver.
Offense
The offense continues to play lights out. The Dolphins average 27.5 points per game in games Tua starts and finishes. Tua has seven touchdown passes and zero turnovers in his last two outings. It's like the Dolphins' offense of last season, with a few changes.
One of those changes has been getting a tight end involved in the offense. Jonnu Smith is playing the best football of his career. He's become one of the most important pieces of the offense and adds a different dimension with his power and ability over the middle.
As always, expect a lot of swing passes and screens for De'Von Achane. The short-yardage game will be necessary, as the temperature will likely affect Tua. Also, Mike McDaniel has been calling fewer deep shots in general, partially explaining Tyreek Hill's decline in numbers.
I think the Dolphins will continue to ride the hot hand with Jaylen Waddle, especially with Jaire Alexander out. Waddle is too talented of a player and is in too good of an offense; his stat line last week should happen three or four times a season, not just once.
Betting Info
Points Spread: GB -3.5 (-102) | MIA +3.5 (-120)
Moneyline: GB (-178) | MIA (+150)
Over/Under: O 47 (-110) | U 47 (-110)
Lines via Fanduel as of Wednesday, November 27th
The Dolphins have covered four games in a row. The Packers are coming off a big win and cover against San Francisco, albeit they had a lot of key players out. History and the fact that the Packers are just a very good team playing at home are factors against the Dolphins here. Lambeau Field is among the most challenging places to play in the NFL, especially in a Thanksgiving Primetime game at night. I'll take the Packers -3.5. That being said, I personally always juice a -3.5 line down to -3 and a -7.5 down to -7 due to how high the potential for a push is.
Prediction
On paper, this is the best game of the Thanksgiving slate, and it should be entertaining. Two exciting offenses on teams with a lot to play for, but the Lambeau Field factor is too big for me to overlook; I think the Packers will win.
Final Score: Packers 27, Dolphins 20
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