The Dolphins kick off their season on Sunday against their in-state rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars. These are two teams trying to establish themselves as legitimate contenders in the AFC. With both teams having young quarterbacks and exciting pieces on both sides of the ball, it's looking like one of the better matchups in week one.
This Jags team is coming off a disappointing end to its season, losing five of its last six games and choking away a playoff spot. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been solid, but he has yet to live up to the hype coming out of Clemson, where many saw him as one of the most pro-ready QB prospects in recent times. Lawrence will have a new weapon at his disposal, first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr., who will look to fill the void left by Calvin Ridley in the receiver room. The Jags will want to start the season off on the right foot, and an opening weekend win in Miami could be just what they need.
On Miami's side, they'll want to prove that the first half of last season wasn't a fluke. Starting in Miami is ideal for the Dolphins, as they went 7-2 at home last season, including some stellar offensive performances. Tyreek Hill said that he believes this is the best Dolphins team he's been a part of in his three years there. It's time to see if Hill is correct, and this Jaguars will serve as a good test for the Dolphins to see if they're ready for the new season.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 8
Start Time: 1 PM EDT
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All white
Jaguars 2023 Statistical Ratings
Points Per Game: 22.2 (15th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.8 (16th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 339. 5(12th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 242.7 Yards Per Game (9th) and 96.8 Yards Per Game (23rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 342.8 (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 239.8 Yards Per Game (26th) and 103.1 Yards Per Game (9th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 38.16% (17th) and 36.52% (8th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 50% (21st) and 55.77% (17th)
Penalties: 83 (29th)
Penalty Yardage: 644 Yards (30th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: WR Malik Washington, CB Jalen Ramsey (Questionable)
Jaguars: S Daniel Thomas (Questionable)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Defense
The Jags had a middle-of-the-pack defense last season, but one standout performer was Josh Hines-Allen. Hines-Allen had 17.5 sacks, a mark bettered only by Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt. The Jaguars gave Hines-Allen a five-year, $150M extension this offseason, securing that they'll have one of the best pass rushers in the league for the next few years. Not to be forgotten is 2022 1st overall pick Travon Walker, who recorded ten sacks last season. They also bolster the interior defensive line by bringing in Arik Armstead from the 49ers, who didn't practice all week but looks good for Sunday.
The defensive line is stout, but the more significant questions for the Jags come in the secondary. They extended CB Tyson Campbell but brought in a host of new names. Safety Darnell Savage from the Packers is a substantial addition, and they'll hope that CB Ronald Darby can regain his form from earlier in his career. They'll have their hands full going up against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who gave opposing CBs fits all last season.
The Jags will hope to exert as much pressure as possible on Tua, forcing him to make quick decisions to limit his effectiveness. The Dolphins' O-line is shaky, so I think the Jags will make it a point to blitz a lot. The trenches are an underrated part of any football game, and this game will be no different.
Offense
Like their defense, the Jags' offense was statistically average last season. The good news for them is that it's not for a lack of talent. Travis Etienne Jr. had 325 touches last year and is one of the better backs in the league. Christian Kirk has been an underrated receiver throughout his career and is now the WR1 of the offense (at least on paper). It doesn't stop there; TE Evan Engram had 114 receptions in 2023, 4th most among all players, not just tight ends.
Brian Thomas Jr., out of LSU, is a physical specimen—6'3 ", 209 pounds, with a 4.33 40-yard dash. He'll look to do damage in his first NFL game. Gabe Davis is another offseason acquisition and will serve as a true deep threat for Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville threw the ball on 59.34% of plays last season, which was 9th in the league. Needless to say, they'll want the ball in Lawrence's hands.
Jalen Ramsey's status for the game will be crucial to the Jags' game plan. If he's not healthy, they'll probably look to have Kirk and Thomas Jr. go 1v1 against the Dolphin CBs more often. If Ramsey plays, the offense could go more through Engram and Etienne Jr. Even though the Jags were predominantly a passing offense in 2023, Etienne has shown he can carry a heavy workload. I expect a well-balanced offense unless the Jags are playing from behind early, which would force them to pass more.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins' defense was up and down last season. They went through stretches where they looked like one of the best defenses in the league but were later decimated by injury and inconsistent play. Bradley Chubb is starting the season off on the PUP list, so he'll miss at least the first four weeks. The good news is that Jaelan Phillips has fully recovered from his Achilles tear and is ready for the season. The defensive line will have to learn how to play without Christian Wilkins, and it'll be no easy task going up against Etienne Jr.
Much like it was for the Jags' offense, Ramsey's health will be essential to the Dolphins' defense. If he suits up, they could give him an assignment to follow around Kirk to lock him down. Ethan Bonner and Storm Duck will be forced to step up to plate if Ramsey can't play. Kendall Fuller and Jevon Holland will also play big roles in trying to neutralize Jacksonville's talented pass catchers.
It'll be interesting to see how new DC Anthony Weaver sets up, especially against a team with as many weapons as Jacksonville. Like the Dolphins, the Jags also have questions about their O-line, so watch out for Phillips and Chop Robinson. With so many new faces on the defensive side of the ball, it'll take some time to gel, but they'll have to up their game in this matchup.
Offense
The Dolphins' offense mostly remained the same from last season, which is good. They were third in points per game, yards per game, and red zone TD percentage. Tyreek Hill was on pace to break the single-season receiving yards record before hurting his ankle late in the season. Jaylen Waddle struggled with injuries throughout the season, but reports are that he had a fantastic training camp and is fully healthy. Jonnu Smith will be a wildcard at TE because of his power and athleticism, providing another downfield option for Tua.
The running game will be a two-headed monster with Mostert and Achane. They'll not only look to cause the Jags' defense problems themselves but also open up the passing game for Tua and the explosive receivers. The good news for the Dolphins is that both backs will see a lot of touches, which will keep them fresh and force the Jags' defense to adjust. The Jags' defensive line will want to plug any gaps to prevent any home-run plays from Achane specifically.
Mike McDaniel will look to exploit the Jaguars secondary by throwing it early. The Dolphins were 5th in 1st quarter points last season, and they tend to get off to hot starts when they play at the Hard Rock. The O-line will be a concern, particularly with the Jags' aggressive pass rush. Aaron Brewer and Robert Jones are slated to start, but if they struggle, don't be surprised to see McDaniel switch things up in the coming games.
Betting Info
Points Spread: JAX +3.5 (-120) | MIA -3.5 (-102)
Moneyline: JAX (+144) | MIA (-172)
Over/Under: JAX O 49.5 (-105) | MIA U 49.5 (-115)
Lines via FanDuel as of Friday, September 6
I like the Dolphins -3.5 here; if you can manage to get it at -3, even better. They were 6-3 ATS at home last season and 9-2 ATS as favorites. The Jaguars were 9-8 ATS overall last season but only 2-4 as underdogs. For player props, Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown at -115 is phenomenal value, especially at home and against a team with a new look secondary.
Prediction
The Jaguars have a pretty rough start to the season and schedule overall, so I think they'll be highly motivated right out of the gate, but I think they'll fall short. This Miami team has a point to prove, and history shows they start the season well, especially at home. Jacksonville winning certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility, but I think Miami gets it done in a relatively high-scoring game.
Final Score: Dolphins 27, Jaguars 21
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