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Writer's pictureHenrique Souza

Dolphins Must Break Curse Against Bills To Save Their Season

It's no secret that the Bills have owned the Dolphins since Josh Allen broke out in 2020. The Dolphins haven't won in Buffalo since 2016, when Ryan Tannehill was the quarterback and Tyrod Taylor was starting for the Bills. The Bills beat the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2 this season when Tua suffered the concussion that kept him out for five weeks.


Many tempered their expectations for the Bills this season, with the division improving and Josh Allen losing his top two receivers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. However, the Bills are flying; they lead the division by three and a half games and are coming off back-to-back 20+ point victories. The Dolphins will need to be on their A-game if they want any chance of pulling off the upset.


At worst, the Phins need to split these next two road games to save their season, but winning this one, in particular, would provide a huge morale boost. Is it time the little brother finally steps up, or will Josh Allen continue his streak against Miami?




Game Info

Date: Sunday, November 3rd

Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT

Location: Orchard Park, New York,

Stadium: Highmark Stadium

TV Info: FOX (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green on the call)

Dolphins uniform info: All White


Buffalo Bills 2024 Stats

Points Per Game: 28.8 (5th)

Points Allowed Per Game: 18.3 (6th)

Offensive Yards Per Game: 336.5 (13th)

Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 214.3 Yards Per Game (15th) and 122.3 Yards Per Game (13th)

Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 328.4 (16th)

Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 208.1 Yards Per Game (13th) and 120.3 Yards Per Game (15th)

Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 36.96% (21st) and 39.60% (22nd)

Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 67.65% (4th) and 42.86% (6th)

Penalties: 53 (14th)

Penalty Yardage: 399 Yards (17th)


Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Dolphins: TE Julian Hill, CB Kader Kohou, DL Zach Sieler, S Jevon Holland (Doubtful)

Bills: FB Reggie Gilliam


Buffalo Bills

Defense

Outside of one disastrous game in Baltimore, the Bills' defense has been great this season. They just held the Seahawks' explosive offense to ten points at Lumen Field (albeit without DK Metcalf). They've given up 20 points or less in six out of eight games this season.


A big part of their success has been forcing turnovers. They're sixth in takeaways and number one in turnover differential at +11. Safety Damar Hamlin and cornerback Ja'Marcus Ingram lead the way with two interceptions each. On the defensive line, Greg Rousseau has 3.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss, and veteran Von Miller is back after a four-game suspension for violating the league's conduct policy.




The Bills like to run two high safeties to prevent the deep ball. This has worked against Miami, limiting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill has managed over 70 yards against the Bills just once in his career, including his Kansas City days. The Bills will look to get out to an early lead and force the Dolphins to play from behind and throw the ball, as their pass defense is more robust than their run defense.


Offense

I mentioned that the Bills are number one in turnover differential, and the defense has done a fine job of getting takeaways, but the real reason they're first is Josh Allen. After being turnover-heavy for his whole career, Allen has cleaned up his act. Allen threw his first interception of the season just last week and has yet to lose a fumble. This is huge for the Bills, who, throughout the years, have lost several games due to Allen trying to do too much.


Allen is currently the MVP favorite (+270 per FanDuel) and has impressed mightily this season. After losing Diggs in the summer, the Bills traded for Amari Cooper just before Week 7. Cooper caught a touchdown in Week 7 but only one pass last week. Cooper has played limited snaps so far, but he's helped bring attention away from Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman. Shakir caught nine passes for 107 yards last week, and Coleman has kicked into gear after a slow start.



The Bills rushing attack is nothing to scoff at, either. James Cook already has seven rushing touchdowns this season after scoring only two last season. This is partially due to Cook's improvement and Josh Allen being used less on the goal line. Rookie Ray Davis has also impressed when given a chance this season. He earned himself more touches in the offense, especially after a 152-yard performance in a game Cook missed. Cook ran all over the Dolphins in the first game, and I expect him to get a lot of work again.


Miami Dolphins

Defense

The Dolphins' defense let them down last week. After holding the Colts and Pats to 16 points or less, they gave up 28 points and 389 yards of total offense to Arizona. It won't get any easier this week, facing Josh Allen in his home stadium. Jevon Holland gave it a go last week but could only play 26% of snaps, and he'll likely miss out entirely this week.


Jalen Ramsey struggled against the bigger Marvin Harrison Jr., so I suspect he'll zero in on Amari Cooper rather than the 6'4" Keon Coleman. Kader Kohou, the nickelback, is out through injury again, so Cam Smith will deal with the slot. The Dolphins will hope that last week was just a blimp in what has otherwise been a terrific pass defense.


The pass rush has struggled all season (injuries haven't helped), with just nine sacks, tied for the second-fewest in the NFL. Josh Allen is also one of the least-sacked quarterbacks this season so that the defensive line could be in for a rough outing. It'll be a massive test for the defense to try and stop a Bills offense that has scored at least 34 points in each of their three home games this season.




Offense

If there is a silver lining from the defeat against Arizona, the offense looked back to normal. Tua played a clean game apart from the safety, which came off a high snap. Tua should be given more chances to air it out, as he played conservatively in his first game back. The Bills' two high safeties will make that difficult, but the Dolphins must take some risks to win this game.


The exciting thing about the Dolphins' offense is that they essentially don't have a third receiver. It's Hill and Waddle on the outside, and no other receiver has played over 40% of snaps in a game since Week 2. De'Von Achane is not a receiver by trade but frequently lines up in the slot and has out-targeted Waddle this season. Still, the Phins will need to get Waddle going this season, who hasn't had more than 46 receiving yards in a game since Week 1.




Raheem Mostert found the end zone for the first time this season, and he'll remain heavily involved in the offense despite Achane's stellar play. The Bills were highly successful in stopping Kenneth Walker last week, limiting him to only 12 rushing yards, but struggled when they faced Breece Hall and Derrick Henry this season. Achane and Mostert can rip off those big runs that the Bills have struggled with at times this season, and they'll be crucial to opening up the passing game.


If there were ever a time for Tua and Tyreek to play well against the Bills, it would be right now. Going 2-6 would put the Dolphins in a deep hole. After this, they still have to face the Rams, Jets, Texans, and Packers, all away from home, and the 49ers in Miami.


Betting Info

Points Spread: BUF -6 (-110) | MIA +6 (-110)

Moneyline: BUF (-260) | MIA (+210)

Over/Under: O 49.5 (-110) | U 49.5 (-110)

Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, November 1st

The Dolphins are tied for the second-worst team in the league at 1-6 ATS. I'm going to play a numbers game here and say Vegas won't continue to miss this badly plus the offense is healthy. I will pick Miami +6, but I wouldn't feel confident about it.


Prediction

The Dolphins seriously need a victory, but the Bills are on a hot streak; it's in Buffalo, and history is in their favor. I think the Dolphins will fight to keep it relatively close but fall short.


Final Score: Bills 27, Dolphins 23



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