2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Fernando Mendoza
- Jack Gaffney
- Mar 5
- 5 min read
Fernando Mendoza going from a relative unknown transfer portal get to Heisman Trophy Winner and household name for an Indiana Hoosiers National Championship Football team has been one of the more awe-inspiring stories in College Football's history. A Miami native, who some at least know by now, was not recruited by The U coming out of high school, instead going west to Cal-Berkley for three years before Curt Cignetti nabbed him in the transfer portal for the 2025 season. The rest, as they say, is history.
His rise has been a fascinating journey, and it feels now like a forgone conclusion that Mendoza will be the first named called in the NFL Draft to the now Klint Kubiak-led Las Vegas Raiders. It might not be unfair to say this is a similar situation to last year with Cam Ward when you talk about where the top QB is relative to the value of the first overall pick, but I was a fan of Ward coming out of Miami, and as you'll see here, the same can be said of Mendoza. Here's a look at the likely No. 1 overall pick.
Player Bio
Name: Fernando Mendoza
Jersey: No. 15
Position: Quarterback
School: Indiana (by way of Cal-Berkley)
Class: Redshirt Junior
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 236 lbs
Games Watched: vs. Miami and Wake Forrest (2024), vs. Iowa, Oregon, and Illinois (2025)
Arm Talent (14.25/15)
Hard not to come away with the arm talent that Mendoza has at his disposal. He puts some incredible zip on his passes, showing the ability to win against tight windows or otherwise, and that was demonstrated time and time again on opposite hash throws like the one you see below vs. Iowa, throwing into a C2 hole, and especially on outbreakers, where you really need to throw fastballs as it is. The deep ball ability with Mendoza was also pretty good, although the accuracy could certainly vary (not as bad as it was with Ty Simpson, but something to note for sure).
Accuracy (13.5/15)
Mendoza has a 70.3 completion percentage over the last two seasons, and while I'd say he's good on this front, he's someone who will occasionally throw behind on in-breakers. There were some jump passes on the Cal tape that were a bit wonky, and you'd want his accuracy on the move to be just a bit better. His deep ball was a bit inconsistent at times, but if you saw him from the Big 10 Championship game on, you saw him pretty much at his best, throwing downfield against stiff competition. As said, though, he was nowhere near as bad as Simpson, and unlike him, he was able to make throws with accuracy under pressure, knowing he was going to take some hits at that.
Decision Making (13.5/15)
After a 10-pick season as a Redshirt Sophomore, Mendoza was able to reduce his turnovers to just six in each of his last two seasons. On turnover plays or not, you definitely saw a handful of plays where he absolutely could've done things better; a pick against Miami where he didn't pick up on a C3 cover rotation downhill, resulting in an easy pick, stood out, but there was a lot more good in the throwing department. Another thing to note here is a does a really good job of keeping downfield plays alive on the run (by design or not) and knowing when it's time to become a runner.
Progressions (7.25/10)
One of the fair knocks you could levy at Mendoza is that he played in a couple of systems at Cal and Indiana that were heavily predicated on RPOs. Not that he's never had to make plays going to a second or third read before, but this is definitely an area where he's still a work in progress.
Pocket Awareness (8.75/10)
Mendoza's willingness to stick in the pocket and take hits in order to make throws was pretty admirable, but there were absolutely some plays where you'd want him to realize things are breaking down a bit quicker than he did. Nothing that I'd be super worried about, however, and I wouldn't call him a stranger to bad protection after watching the two Cal games of his.
Anticipation/Touch (8.75/10)
With elite arm talent, Mendoza's ability to fit balls in certain windows and to put some extra air underneath passes when necessary was something you saw a good deal of. As far as touch goes, this throw vs. Indiana's rout of Illinois stood out big time, getting enough underneath this pass to keep it out of harm's way with a linebacker in the lane, plus the DB with his back turned.
Out of Structure (8.5/10)
We briefly touched on Mendoza's accuracy on the run, being a little bit off from where you'd hope, but his ability to produce out of structure is good as a passer and runner. I can appreciate that he's not a pure scramble-to-run guy, and that he will make an honest effort to make a play with his arm if there's one to be made, but he can absolutely take off with the best of them.
Mobility (9.25/10)
Both Cal and Indiana loved to get Mendoza on the run, whether as a runner or a passer, and he moves very well for a kid his size. I don't know how much the read option and QB draws he ran will stick with him as an NFL QB, but he's wholly capable of being a very good runner when asked.
Mechanics (4.5/5)
Hard to say Mendoza is anything other than pretty good mechanically. Hopefully, his tendency to jump throw, which did get better as I got along, gets completely out of his system, but his throwing motion is really nice, and his footwork and willingness to drive into throws, stepping up in the pocket when to do so with his eyes, is a huge plus.
Player Summary
Mendoza might not be a top 10 player in this class, which is more indicitive of some the elite defensive talent and at the wide reciever and OL spots this year than anything else, but you could definitely tell even in those Cal games there was something there with him, and I don't think I even need to bring up his Indiana stint in that regard. Tough, big, great arm, willing to take hits to make plays, and can be a factor with his legs; hard to fault the Raiders if they like him. Hard to pinpoint just what his rookie year looks like since it'd be smart money to project the Raiders being a run heavy team under Kubiak, and their offensive line was pretty bad last year, but if he ends up having a year a bit better than what Cam Ward had, from both the numbers and eye test, I'd feel pretty good about that if I were a Raiders fan.
Rookie Projections: High Upside Rookie Starting Quarterback
Third-Year Projection: Pro Bowl Caliber Quarterback
Final Grade (88.25/100): Mid-First Round Talent
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