While it was another year in the 450 class with many injuries, they were nowhere as severe as a year ago, and this year's Premier Class playoff has a notably more robust lineup competing for a maximum of $1,000,000. Once again, Chase Sexton enters Charlotte spotted 25 points as the one seed, but he didn't miss a chunk of the outdoor tilt with a practice injury this year and swapped championships, all aboard a KTM 450 SX-F.
No longer an underdog starting at the point, Sexton is the leader of the pack in a field that features both Lawrence brothers (Jett coming back off of a UCL injury), teammate Aaron Plessinger, Jason Anderson, and then Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, and Cooper Webb, the latter three of whom are starting in a points hole come Saturday. With that, all said if Sexton is the favorite to win this year's three-round playoff, who's his top competition? Let's find out.
Notable LCQ Riders (Minimum of 2 Transfers as of Thursday): No. 15 Dean Wilson, No. 46 Justin Hill, No. 125 Vince Friese, No. 45 Colt Nichols
Key 20-11 Riders: No. 3 Eli Tomac, No. 94 Ken Roczen, No. 28 Christain Craig, No. 11 Chiz, No. 36 Phil Nicoletti (If there's any honor left in this sport, they let him win the whole thing as a retirement gift)
Seed 10) No. 2 Cooper Webb (Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Four Supercross Main Event Wins, Second in 2024 Supercross Points
Webb's return stint in Pro Motocross didn't go as expected, and they only got 1.5 Motos worth of real racing time coming into SMX. Factoring that with the thumb injury still potentially lingering, Webb will have to grit things out more than usual if he wants to win this thing. If there's anyone outside the top 5/6 seeds I'd bet on to do just that, it's Webb every day of the week. Also, Florida State hasn't won a game since this picture; do with that what you will.
Seed 9) No. 51 Justin Barcia (TLD/Red Bull GasGas Factory Racing)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: N/A
Back on the bike and with single-digit races left until he becomes a two-time dad (congrats to him and Amber Barcia), BamBam hopes to continue the uptick in performance he was enjoying after a pretty brutal start to the Supercross season. Only five top fives between SX Main Events and MX Motos in 27 race starts, and Barcia's probably hoping those precipitation chances increase in Concord, NC for Saturday. However, I imagine he does well for himself as he still manages this knee injury.
Seed 8) No. 14 Dylan Ferrandis (Phoenix Honda)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Fourth Overall at the Unadilla National
Not even the most optimistic of Ferrandis fans could've anticipated some of the highs he's had in 2024 despite leaving Star Yamaha. If not for the lung infection knocking him out for a month in Supercross (and probably holding him back once he was back on the bike), it's not out of the question that he finishes a couple of spots higher in the combined standings. Not to take anything away from Phoenix Honda, but that says a ton about Dylan this year. He was genuinely fantastic in spots, most notably at Unadilla. Notably, he was also fifth in the SMX standings going into the final round before an opening corner Moto 1 crash dashed his million-dollar hopes. This year, he hopes to redeem that.
Seed 7) No. 27 Malcolm Stewart (Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Racing)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: N/A
The children yearn for the affliction of Mookie Fever as the AMA season comes to a close. I yearn for the affliction of Mookie Fever, more importantly. Stewart made every round this year, which is excellent, but it's fair to say the high-end speed he had in 2022, and the speed he had before going down less than 20 minutes into 2023, wasn't there much. The Supercross element of SMX should ultimately play into his hands, but I'll let you know that Mookie ended the Outdoor tilt with his two best back-to-back National outings of the season, so he does have that going for him before Saturday.
Seed 6) No. 1 Jett Lawrence (Honda HRC)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Eight Supercross Main Event Wins, 2024 Monster Energy Supercross Champion, Four AMA Pro Motocross National Wins
Earlier this week, I figured Jett would probably be a contender to win SMX two years in a row, but then Jason Thomas planted some seeds of doubt for me on last week's PulpMX show. The gist was that he and Webb suffered essentially the same thumb injury, but Lawrence is returning to racing notably sooner, and that is factually correct. Webb's surgery date was May 13, with Undaila coming August 10 (89 days), and in the case of Lawrence, his surgery date was July 4, with his official return date set as September 7 (65 Days).
It's not that I believe Jett is incapable of powering his way through, far from it; he deserves a ton of props on how well he did after the Hangtown crash before his season ended when he was visibly in pain on a weekly basis. However, there's no way his thumb is anywhere near 100% coming back 3.5 weeks before Webb did, even with some decent amount of bike time coming. Of course, there's the scenario where none of this matters, and he just wins anyway, and at that point, what can I say???
Seed 5) No. 32 Justin Cooper (Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Two AMA Pro Motocross National Podiums
With a seat at Star Yamaha secured for 2025, JCoop can now entirely focus on his efforts to be a sleeper in these playoff rounds. A violent Budds Creek crash took the wind out of the sails as a pretty good outdoor season, but he logged just about every lap he could've in his first full 450 season, which is good enough in my book. He wasn't particularly strong at Charlotte last year, but I have a feeling he'll do better than the ninth overall result he put up.
Seed 4) No. 7 Aaron Plessinger (Red Bull KTM)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: San Diego Supercross Main Event Winner, Third in AMA Pro Motocross Points
Another rider whose seeding was notably impacted by seeding in the top 10 was AP, who's almost certainly the two seed if not for an elbow fracture in Foxborough. Finnally nabbing that elusive first Supercross win, his calling card all year, especially in the summer, has been consistency. It hasn't led to wins, and he'll need to ramp up the intensity if he wants to win a million dollars. Whether or not we've seen the best of AP this year is unclear, but if not, it's now or never for him to empty the tank (save some for Des Nations, I'm begging you).
Seed 3) No. 21 Jason Anderson (Monster Energy Kawasaki)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Four Monster Energy Supercross Podiums
El Hombre hasn't won in any capacity in over two years now, but despite a ton of missed/wasted opportunities, he stacked up a ton of points for himself. If for nothing else, these next few weeks, I'm excited to see if we get a rekindling of Anderson's rivalry with either Lawrence brother. I have no doubts they'll manage to find each other a ton on track, but is anyone going to push the issue, especially this weekend? We'll have to wait and see. Regardless, I think I'm a bit higher on Anderson here than most; I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he were to sneak into a top-three finishing position if everything goes right. Unfortunately, he's been largely snakebitten for the last 20 months.
Seed 2) No. 96 Hunter Lawrence (Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Second in AMA Pro Motocross Points
Speaking of snakebitten, Hunter has done everything but win when it counts this year. We know the speed is there; it just hasn't been there until the end, especially outdoors, but he's one of a few guys (namely Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen) who'll benifit the most with the race format in SMX. Lest we forget as well, he was most likely going to win the 250 SMX title a year ago, if not for a vicious press day crash. Now would be a hell of a time to break through after a summer full of bridesmaid performances.
Seed 1) No. 4 Chase Sexton (Red Bull KTM)
Key 2024 Accomplishments: Four Supercross Main Event Wins, Third in Monster Energy Supercross Points, Seven AMA Pro Motocross National Wins, Went from 40th to 1st in Moto 2 at Hangtown, 2024 AMA Pro Motocross 450 National Champion
Just like with Haiden Deegan in the 250 class, It's tough to talk yourself out of saying Sexton isn't the heavy favorite to win the purple No. 1 plate. Supercross was a struggle early on as KTM chased the setup (pun intended), but he was as dialed in as I've ever seen him in Motocross. That 40th to 1st run at Hangtown will be one we'll talk about forever.
The only way I don't see Sexton winning this is because of one or two ill-timed mistakes, but even then, when you're locked in, you're locked in. He was far more good than bad in this format a year ago, and he's unequivocally in a better spot now, riding and health-wise.
2024 SuperMotocross 250 Class Playoff Top Five Power Rankings
5th - No. 1 Jett Lawrence
4th - No. 21 Jason Anderson
3rd - No. 7 Aaron Plessinger
2nd - No. 96 Hunter Lawrence
1st - No. 4 Chase Sexton
Championship Pick: Chase Sexton
Main Image via KTM
Comments